Panic Room - Winter 23/24 Edition

[IronTy]

We need a larger continent. 

[clskinsfan]

1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

No need for  panic at all

 

Idub I used one of your daily limit posts in the long range thread brother. Had to do it.

[Ji]

2 hours ago, ldub23 said:

No need for  panic at all

 

but look at all the cold air ready to push through!

[BristowWx]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

but look at all the cold air ready to push through!

It’s bad when our temps match Orlando in January.  But with every model run come fresh new hope.  

[Solution Man]

14 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

It’s bad when our temps match Orlando in January.  But with every model run come fresh new hope.  

I’m headed to Sarasota on Saturday for 4 days. We need a weather reset button, we are in a serious rut brother. Gonna keep hope alive though 

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

I’m headed to Sarasota on Saturday for 4 days. We need a weather reset button, we are in a serious rut brother. Gonna keep hope alive though 

I really didn’t think we’d be headed down this road. Might still turn around.  Might.  Meh.  Thought that last year too.  Have fun down there.  

[clskinsfan]

3 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

I’m headed to Sarasota on Saturday for 4 days

Dont forget your jacket. You wont need it here. 

[PrinceFrederickWx]

I’m listening to this while reading PSU’s posts about the GEFS. It fits perfectly. We’re all doomed. 

 

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

but look at all the cold air ready to push through!

That's 1am and it's almost 70 degrees from NYC south. Read the room.

[JenkinsJinkies]

5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

it's almost 70 degrees from NYC

46 is not almost 70.

[paulythegun]

So because I’m a hobbyist, my friends sometimes ask me about the outlook for snow, as they did tonight.

I rely on the long range threads here to some extent to get a feel. Plus common sense, reading trusted voices on twitter, and my own access to ensembles.

Tonight, when posed with the question about our snow chances, I told a story. I told them about how there’s this weather forum where people discuss the long range forecasts for signs of potential snowstorms. And i told them that for the last few years, they had to create a separate thread called “The Panic Room” where people who loved snow could go to have a meltdown without disrupting the discussion.

They got a kick out of that.

[dailylurker]

7 hours ago, paulythegun said:

So because I’m a hobbyist, my friends sometimes ask me about the outlook for snow, as they did tonight.

I rely on the long range threads here to some extent to get a feel. Plus common sense, reading trusted voices on twitter, and my own access to ensembles.

Tonight, when posed with the question about our snow chances, I told a story. I told them about how there’s this weather forum where people discuss the long range forecasts for signs of potential snowstorms. And i told them that for the last few years, they had to create a separate thread called “The Panic Room” where people who loved snow could go to have a meltdown without disrupting the discussion.

They got a kick out of that.

Dude.. You're not susposed to tell normal people about about this. 

[nj2va]

2 hours ago, dailylurker said:

Dude.. You're not susposed to tell normal people about about this. 

The first rule of the Panic Room, is you don’t talk about the Panic Room.

[Prestige Worldwide]

I was thinking about something @Jisaid long ago- hours spent tracking to inches of snow actually received is a horrible ratio and keeps getting worse.  Yet here we all are begging for that to change.  Most would have given up- I admire the dedication to the cause by all members here!

[Volcanic Winter]

I think there has to be some countenance given to the idea that eastern snow climo is degrading in the post 2016 years. Some of us have had a couple good periods in that time, but even up to SNE has been hurting in a location that much more resistant to the effects of marginal patterns. 

It’s not solely the lower mid MA, though you guys have unfortunately had the rawest end of the stick so far it seems. 

My personal position is that we’re in a period of amplification. The few good years will really be bonanzas, but the length of time between them may be increasing especially as we’re in an unfavorable decadal cycle. The bad years will be worse than normal, as we face more temperature problems that degrade what would’ve been perhaps a couple inches here and there otherwise. 

I know NYC is not your area, but it’s been demonstrated how that city is entering a “boom or bust” pattern where either we get a ton of snow or very little to nothing, which is a definite change over how things worked in previous decade with more average or near average seasons in the mix. 

Something *is* changing, but the ultimate end result of that is unknowable at this juncture IMHO. I would expect a few more blockbuster seasons for the East as we move forward, but perhaps with a lower frequency than in the past. The 2000’s to 2010’s may have just been a favorable decadal period that leveraged warming in a productive way, and now it’s going the other direction for however long. 

A lot of the big years recently seemed to have unusually favorable teleconnection spreads, which probably would have been massive years in earlier decades as well. I think @psuhoffmanhas shown how earlier decades used to produce more snow with less favorable teleconnections. 

If we’re not seeing “as much” snow now with less favorable teleconnections, while also demonstrably having warmer winter seasons, that to me suggests a change. It’ll take more time to deduce both the  magnitude and permanence of that change, but IMHO that’s a rational position to take while considering all factors. 

I believe we’ll see big winters again when everything goes right, but the question is what will continue to happen in the years where everything isn’t 100% right but we should otherwise still be getting snow? 

I echo a lot of PSU’s sentiments and find them well reasoned, but we still need more time to evaluate. This is a long stretch of dung for many, but could still be in part due to just unfavorable decadal cycles and bad luck. To truly determine how much of the other factor is the driving problem will require, unfortunately, more elapsed time / winters. But (and this is a big but), I do agree and believe that other factor is a significant part of it as planetary warming has accelerated in the last few years. 

IMHO. 

Hoping this winter ends up at least serviceable for you and the rest of us. Try to stay open minded, optimistic but also grounded, and willing to consider all positions that are well founded and backed by data. There’s a wealth of information and individual positions across these forums.

[Paleocene]

Driving i-95 south through Maine this morning. 34 and rain. And least they fail up here too

[ldub23]

There  is an easy way to solve the  no snow and  cold  panic and ensure we get snow  and  cold. Instead  of  calling the  period  of  dec-feb winter, call  it  hurricane season. That way we will fool the weather and  it  will place a deep trof  along the east  coast  thinking  it really  is  hurricane season. Problem solved. We all know whats going to happen. Eventually we will get a  perfect  pattern for  winter, during spring and summer.

[Maestrobjwa]

2 hours ago, Paleocene said:

Driving i-95 south through Maine this morning. 34 and rain. And least they fail up here too

Whatever is afflicting us is gonna afflict them too...that's the crazy part. Like the snow climo of the entire northeast may have taken a hit all at once, smh (Well, at least we're not alone, lol)

[nj2va]

On 12/27/2023 at 2:25 PM, Heisy said:

I’m done. At this point let’s see how long we can go without an inch of snow. 3 years? 5 years? A decade? Maybe it’s possible idk?


.

If you’re done, why post in the LR thread?

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

On 12/28/2023 at 12:04 AM, WxWatcher007 said:

Red wine for the Reaper, eh??  Lots of left over wine barrels in the Panic Room!

[Weather Will]

Summary of the 12Z look at the pattern change 

[Jebman]

Mid Atlantic  snow got Lucy'd. Texan rain got Lucy'd.

[Chris78]

46 minutes ago, Ji said:

So the truth is…..deep down…no one thought this winter would be like this so far

The vision was

A cold late November early December with a snow window

A mid month warmup but not bad +2 at the worst but the pattern would be changing by Dec 20

Then our best chance for our white Christmas in years

A chance for a winter storm late December early January with the best of our Nino winter still ahead of us

40 inch winter on the way

I certainly thought by the first week of January we'd be cold enough if the storm track was south of us.

Honestly the entire temp profile is really disappointing so far

[Ji]

Some people aren’t gojng to make it

[IronTy]

I'm on my back patio and the bug zapper light is on and it legit just zapped a bug two days before January.  

[PrinceFrederickWx]

Udder disaster shit the blinds winter with guaranteed cold rain coming up. 

[Paleocene]

9 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Udder disaster shit the blinds winter with guaranteed cold rain coming up. 

Is it cold rain when it's 54 degrees?

[NorthArlington101]

Some people aren’t gojng to make it

Worst 18z GEFS run of the season so far

[Jebman]

Not much is wrong with the weather, hey, it's only the base state.

[Jebman]

5 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Whatever is afflicting us is gonna afflict them too...that's the crazy part. Like the snow climo of the entire northeast may have taken a hit all at once, smh (Well, at least we're not alone, lol)

I feel really bad for all the ski resorts up and down the Eastern US. Those folks are taking a massive hit on revenue. It's tough when there is just no snow, and it's too warm. What's really bad is its too mild to make snow. Wisp looks so forlorn.