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Panic Room - Winter 23/24 Edition


mappy
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4 hours ago, CAPE said:

Paying less attention to the colors and more to the height contours is a good rule of thumb to glean the general idea from an overly smoothed seasonal model. I know you know this. Shame on you for trolling the panic stricken. Shame on me for coming in here and being rational and unemotional.

You know I’m trolling right lol. But I’m doing it where it belongs…

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4 hours ago, CAPE said:

Torch!!

High temps in the 70s to near 80 degrees, wall to wall in January, prolonged Thaw. Biblical rains in the NE mountains, with Grand Canyon-deep, ten foot wide grooves worn into every ski trail at every northeastern ski resort. First January in living memory with no snow on the ground anywhere in the SNE, NEK or anywhere in the entire continental US, for that matter. Total Nino warmth throughout the land, incredible amounts of pac air as the pac jet gets its way! Pacific front after pacific front throughout the entire continental US until we all enjoy genuine Pacific weather, as record breaking 130 degree below zero temps and 50 foot snowpacks adorn the other side of the world like never before!

yep, we got ourselves a brand-new vibe in 2024.

Panic room becomes the main Mid Atlantic Sub.

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On 12/22/2023 at 7:01 AM, Bob Chill said:

 Then vet day 1988 hit and everything started suckin again afterwards. lolol. Many weenies (including myself) thought the Vet day storm was a harbinger of a big winter. It was a big winter if you like little snow and mild temps lol. 

 

Huh? The big Veterans Day storm was in 1987 - granted, December was mild and snowless, but we got an inch right after New Years, then 4-8 inches on the 8th accompanied by almost two weeks of serious cold. Another 4 - 6" on January 25th (rain changing to snow, which hardly ever accumulates that much around here), a couple dustings in February with cold snaps, and measurable snow on March 20!

1988-89, granted, was disappointing in the DC area - that was the year that a bunch of storms missed us to the *south*, and Tidewater Virginia got the jackpot (like 1980).

Even then, the first week of January brought three light-to-moderate snowfalls, the one on January 6 being slush in downtown DC but three or four inches even in Cleveland Park (I tried to visit the zoo that day to see what it was like in the snow, but it was closed).

 

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9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m going to say this then I’m done commenting on that gfs run. If we actually get a few scenarios like that this winter (or like that Super Bowl storm in 2021) then my seasonal forecast will fail for one reason. I failed to correctly account for warning and it’s worse than I thought. 

You've been 100% right so far. No reason to doubt you. We'll probably start seeing snowless winters and 65 degree Christmas days on the regular within the next 5 to 10 years.

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

No because it’s irrelevant. The fact a sophisticated simulation (which frankly is biased cold) says that’s the most likely outcome based on its current data and physics is alarming. It shouldn’t be possible to have a vertically stacked bombing low there with a deform band right over us in January in a pattern where we’ve had a NW flow into the east for a week and get rain. How that doesn’t bother anyone is beyond me. 

Stockholm Syndrome. People can't believe it's happening so quickly.

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10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

You've been 100% right so far. No reason to doubt you. We'll probably start seeing snowless winters and 65 degree Christmas days on the regular within the next 5 to 10 years.

Stockholm Syndrome. People can't believe it's happening so quickly.

We already are seeing snow less winters lol

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It seems that it cannot get cold enough here for snow, unless there is some arctic front driving through with 30mph NW winds.  And that cannot happen with an approaching storm system, or during; only after.  

When I went snowless in the contest, I was only partially joking.  Like 25%.

At this point, I get just as excited to track rain.  Try living out here in the SV desert for a summer and you'll see why.

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3 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

I'm not a young man and I can remember the joke was always about Christmas being warm and the January thaws. Having cold and a white Christmas for our area has always been the exception not the rule.  

That's true. For some reason we have always been more likely to pop a warm spell around the holidays.  I remember a Christmas Eve in either 81 or 82 as a kid playing ball outside shorts and shirtless and sweating like crazy.  But, now it seems to becoming consistent and easy to pop 60s without any remarkable pattern in-place.

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17 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

What a damn shame.. was really starting to get excited for 1/8 and beyond.. can’t win anymore. Hoping to at least get another coating Friday into Saturday but even that seems like a wish at this point. 

I would think you would do ok on the 3rd if that setup as shown on the 12z is close to true.  it does suck to chase coatings repeatedly.  but its not like anyone else is killing it either.  the grass is still green at my moms house in Rochester, MI

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