Maestrobjwa Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 10 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Took a peek at the weekly control for fun. How does this 30 day mean lead to this Huh...red flag? Like I said...such a rapid deterioration of snow climo even up to Boston would be crazy to see...like somebody just flipped a switch as opposed it happening gradually. Seeing this helps keep the expectations sober... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 18 hours ago, Solution Man said: We maybe warmer than Thanksgiving Yep. mostly sunny and 54 will result in a real feel of about 75. Another holiday season where heat miser gives us a prison pounding 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 12z GFS said, "The basketball courts will remain open", which is perfectly acceptable. I would like a snowstorm, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 My general policy is to always assume that the warmest model is correct. Therefore, I believe the latest long-range GFS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 I speak for all of the uninformed people on here who barely know how the atmosphere works when I say: if I don't start seeing digital snow accumulations within 240 hours on the first model that loads on tropical tidbits soon, I'm going to PANIC 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 1 hour ago, 87storms said: 12z GFS said, "The basketball courts will remain open", which is perfectly acceptable. I would like a snowstorm, though. What it really said is “I’ll take a shot at forecasting the weather beyond Saturday but I’m likely not even close” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 15 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: What it really said is “I’ll take a shot at forecasting the weather beyond Saturday but I’m likely not even close” I feel like things have been pretty well sniffed out about a week in advance. The last two big rainers were well known the week prior. After the storm on the 27th I feel like there is not much value wringing hands. If we get to Christmas and the next 7 days still look like poo, time to hit the egg nog hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 1 hour ago, Paleocene said: I speak for all of the uninformed people on here who barely know how the atmosphere works when I say: if I don't start seeing digital snow accumulations within 240 hours on the first model that loads on tropical tidbits soon, I'm going to PANIC I think this is the difference between myself and the long range thread people. They're interested in the process, but I'm interested in the results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 While not 2015 levels of warmth, 60*F is beginning to look achievable for DC and close in suburbs for xmas eve / day. Depressing as this is, most recent examples here do roll forward to a somewhat pronounced and sustained flip into January. Unfortunately, it also sets the stage once again (similar to 2021-22) when the xmas holiday period and memorial day holiday weekend to see legitamately inverted absolute temperature values. Meaning, the average high at the lowest sun period of the year exceeding the average high for nearly the highest sun period of the entire year, for some meaningful period of time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: What it really said is “I’ll take a shot at forecasting the weather beyond Saturday but I’m likely not even close” You're probably not wrong. Forecasting clouds the day of can be a challenge around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 35 minutes ago, RIC_WX said: While not 2015 levels of warmth, 60*F is beginning to look achievable for DC and close in suburbs for xmas eve / day. Depressing as this is, most recent examples here do roll forward to a somewhat pronounced and sustained flip into January. Unfortunately, it also sets the stage once again (similar to 2021-22) when the xmas holiday period and memorial day holiday weekend to see legitamately inverted absolute temperature values. Meaning, the average high at the lowest sun period of the year exceeding the average high for nearly the highest sun period of the entire year, for some meaningful period of time. What you're really trying to say is that DC is the new Richmond...and I agree. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 26 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: a SSW could give us a rockin Feb if it verified Really hope we don't have to wait until February for snow. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 A SSW will produce a cold air outbreak somewhere in the northern hemisphere. That’s our best shot for a late February pattern change that leads to anomalously cold coastal rain storms in March 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 3 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: Really hope we don't have to wait until February for snow. You’ve been waiting since Feb 2014. What’s another couple months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 The subtropical jetstream field is north MEX into FL across the Gulf of Mexico. Another atmospheric river is smashing right into Mexico. Better look out East Coast, here comes another anomalously strong storm right up the Eastern Seaboard. Its gonna pick up a frightening amount of moisture from the Golfo de Mexico, then smash all hell out of North Florida again, then demolish the southeast then the Mid Atlantic! DEJA VU!!!!!!!! Texas does not even get a drop. Enjoy the Nino, Mid Atlantic. The subtropical jet IS a BEAST for you all! I was damned RIGHT about that after all. What I need to get straight, is that this is going to be an absolutely anomalously DRY low sun period for Texas. If you are tired of storms, come see us in Austin! Wall to wall sunshine, highs in the 60s/70s and light southerly winds. Thats our delightful winter forecast! Just picked two of the most juicy, SHWEET figs off our 9 foot tall fig tree! I'll keep on watering it as long as the water table holds out. But it is dry as a martini down here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 Has anyone here officially declared "winter cancel" yet? Genuinely curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Has anyone here officially declared "winter cancel" yet? Genuinely curious. It was actually cancelled back in late November. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 All that pacific air killed the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 Yesterday's WB GEFS extended control.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 48 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Has anyone here officially declared "winter cancel" yet? Genuinely curious. Depends on what you mean. I do think it will snow this year, but I have been in the below-average camp since November. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 46 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Yesterday's WB GEFS extended control.... If that happened I would be kicking bunnies all over the neighborhood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 56 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Yesterday's WB GEFS extended control.... DCA gets the least snow within a 500 mile radius. Seems about right! These models really have gotten more accurate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 Has anyone here officially declared "winter cancel" yet? Genuinely curious.I’m canceling winter until it snows, then I plan to cancel it again a few days later until it snows again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 Rain all the way up in Maine on Jan6th. Where is this supposed pattern change we’ve been talking about since November???? 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 15 minutes ago, Siberian-Snowcover-Myth said: Rain all the way up in Maine on Jan6th. Where is this supposed pattern change we’ve been talking about since November???? It's the pac air. It has taken over the entire North American continent. East coast will get record rains from Nino, while places like the American Southwest will be bone dry. FOOKIN' pac jet!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 3 hours ago, Jebman said: It's the pac air. It has taken over the entire North American continent. East coast will get record rains from Nino, while places like the American Southwest will be bone dry. FOOKIN' pac jet!!! At least you've come to reality lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 17 minutes ago, dailylurker said: At least you've come to reality lol Yep, it was ers wxman that started my 12 step program back to grim reality. I'm making progress. I dont think its going to snow anywhere in the conus, and Texas will be dry as a martini thru at least 2026. We'll run out of water, and I'll perish. Pacific air is firmly in control throughout the CONUS, and the 384 hour model runs are fantasy. Once people begin to realize that January will be semizonal with mild and rain, Panic Room will get overcrowded literally overnight, such as this board has never seen! It's just eight years of really bad luck. We all need a brand spanking new hobby. I need to move to Cherrapunji, India soon. They have plenty of water. Damn. I'm getting thirsty again. I wish The Reaper were on the Job. I am thinking of jumping right off the Ledge again. If I do Jump, I want a Proper Reaping. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 15 hours ago, RIC_WX said: While not 2015 levels of warmth, 60*F is beginning to look achievable for DC and close in suburbs for xmas eve / day. Depressing as this is, most recent examples here do roll forward to a somewhat pronounced and sustained flip into January. Unfortunately, it also sets the stage once again (similar to 2021-22) when the xmas holiday period and memorial day holiday weekend to see legitamately inverted absolute temperature values. Meaning, the average high at the lowest sun period of the year exceeding the average high for nearly the highest sun period of the entire year, for some meaningful period of time. New normal unfortunately. People are starting to come to grips with it. Our snow climo is going to be like Charlotte, NC in a few years. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: New normal unfortunately. People are starting to come to grips with it. Our snow climo is going to be like Charlotte, NC in a few years. Unfortunately you haven’t been 5 posted yet. You have become by far the worst poster on the board. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: New normal unfortunately. People are starting to come to grips with it. Our snow climo is going to be like Charlotte, NC in a few years. far be it from me to be optimistic. However, the rationale for this years mini torch Xmas Eve/day seems to be the shifting of the pattern. the rainstorm day later cutting west is pulling up warm air. Could happen even in the best of patterns at our latitude without a deep wedge over NY state. That storm cuts west feeds the trough to the NE that drives a change as it looks in my eyes. To me, thats easier to swallow rather than the sustained WAR, -PNA, +NAO death combo with no end insight kind of deal we had last winter because it seems that things could get better if these ensemble means have legs. If not, then we are fooked with no lubricant once again. If our climate is Charlotte in a few years imagine how weenies in Charlotte feel....they are looking at JAX climate. Which means Florida will boil in its own pudding. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now