Chris78 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 And these threads will be completely unreadable next year lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: I'm fully expecting next winter to be a replay of last winter. It's going to be a dumpster fire. Pretty much yea. At least we’ll be expecting that 10 months ahead of time. We’ll live. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 4 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Both this and last winter we at least had some blocking. Next winter we probably won’t. Not to the extent that we have seen anyway. I’d want to see wholesale changes in the pacific and for the atlantic to cool off to change my outlook. Until then, I’m setting fare alerts on Google flights. My wag on next year is we will probably have 1 shot at a decent storm and if we hit it it would be just a crappy winter. If we don't it will be a historically bad winter again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 32 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: 2012-2013 2016-2017 2019-2020 March 2013 I got 10" storm. Not much difference here from 2020. Very little difference IMO in a winter with 8" of snow and near constant warmth and a 1" winter. They both suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 12 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said: 2012-2013 2016-2017 2019-2020 I agree on 2, but 2012-2013 was anything but a bad winter out here. Heck when got over 20” in March alone that year. Now 2011-2012 was awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Everyone should savor Friday nights possible 1-3 inches. Enjoy it in good health and in good times. Because that is probably it for the year. Another below average year. But hey, at least we might crack 10 inches? 30+ inches and epic patterns LMAO! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 7 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said: Everyone should savor Friday nights possible 1-3 inches. Enjoy it in good health and in good times. Because that is probably it for the year. Another below average year. But hey, at least we might crack 10 inches? 30+ inches and epic patterns LMAO! No need for me to look at models I suppose. Crystal ball? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 19 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: No need for me to look at models I suppose. Crystal ball? LR modeling has be atrocious at best. Far better accuracy just looking at climo and making a forecast off that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 And suddenly 50 mph wind gust. We do wind well. We also excel at mostly cloudy and 45 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 26 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said: LR modeling has be atrocious at best. Far better accuracy just looking at climo and making a forecast off that. Or off your insecurities 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Or off your insecurities Back on Feb 1st I said there would be no epic pattern change and that we'd be sitting here on Feb 15th with the same old same. I was right, the entire model thread full of experts and mets was wrong. That is really all you need to know honestly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 1/29/2024 at 1:38 PM, RevWarReenactor said: Go look at the thread I posted. We were tracking a brief reset after the last 2 storms and then a good pattern setting in; early Feb. Now its post Feb 14th. Want to make a bet? We meet back here Feb 15th. No snow between now and then, and you will be tracking a "good pattern" in late Feb/ Early March. (which also won't happen) How much do you want to bet? Ouch. Believe me I take no joy in being right. But climo is climo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Surprisingly few posts. Is he deleting his wrong predictions? I respect that https://twitter.com/search?q=hounds from%3A%40bigjoebastardi&src=typed_query&f=live https://twitter.com/search?q=hound from%3A%40bigjoebastardi&src=typed_query&f=live 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I met JB over 20 years ago. He use to have these "gatherings" which were super weird. He'd just put in his accuweather blog "I am going to be at restaurant XYZ at 10am on Saturday". Like 50 weather weenies just showed up at a restaurant, ordered nothing. And he'd walk in 30 mins late, rant about how winter was coming and all this BS for about 20 minutes and then he'd leave. There was a certain celebrity status amongst the weenies over his presence. I guess I was part of that. I got my photo with him. He saw I was young and asked what college I went to, I stumbled because of nerves and when I did answer he thought I was lying. He gave me a weird look. Even my Dad who was present was like "he thought you were lying". Decades later I've come to realize how ridiculous it all was. Also ask me about the time me and DT went to breakfast in Rhode Island at an Eastern conference. Just me and him. That was something.....let me tell you. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nmyers1204 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 45 minutes ago, paulythegun said: Surprisingly few posts. Is he deleting his wrong predictions? I respect that https://twitter.com/search?q=hounds from%3A%40bigjoebastardi&src=typed_query&f=live https://twitter.com/search?q=hound from%3A%40bigjoebastardi&src=typed_query&f=live Wonder if he pulled his head out of Sandusky’s…I mean his ass 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 hour ago, RevWarReenactor said: I met JB over 20 years ago. He use to have these "gatherings" which were super weird. He'd just put in his accuweather blog "I am going to be at restaurant XYZ at 10am on Saturday". Like 50 weather weenies just showed up at a restaurant, ordered nothing. And he'd walk in 30 mins late, rant about how winter was coming and all this BS for about 20 minutes and then he'd leave. There was a certain celebrity status amongst the weenies over his presence. I guess I was part of that. I got my photo with him. He saw I was young and asked what college I went to, I stumbled because of nerves and when I did answer he thought I was lying. He gave me a weird look. Even my Dad who was present was like "he thought you were lying". Decades later I've come to realize how ridiculous it all was. Also ask me about the time me and DT went to breakfast in Rhode Island at an Eastern conference. Just me and him. That was something.....let me tell you. You had breakfast with DT? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 37 minutes ago, Terpeast said: You had breakfast with DT? Yes- at the eastern conference in 2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 6 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said: Yes- at the eastern conference in 2009. Did he throw his eggs at you..or the waitress 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 hour ago, RedSky said: Did he throw his eggs at you..or the waitress No-but you are on the right track. Let me just say my experience with Dave is that he is actually MORE unhinged in person than he is online. I might not want to say more out of thread derailment and that is known to threaten litigation of things said about him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Surprisingly few posts. Is he deleting his wrong predictions? I respect thathttps://twitter.com/search?q=hounds from%3A%40bigjoebastardi&src=typed_query&f=livehttps://twitter.com/search?q=hound from%3A%40bigjoebastardi&src=typed_query&f=livehttps://x.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1750268015575232715?s=46&t=C005pd5HNg3Y-KhVU7n3VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Groundhog > Weeklies/Ens ? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 9 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Groundhog > Weeklies/Ens ? Poor groundhog, always taking the heat! What about the Woolly Bears? They shoulder some of the blame!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 uh oh. North Trend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 NORTH. But on the bright side, LWX has temps never reaching freezing in the city until Saturday at 9pm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 (keeping these in the panic room to avoid spoiling the jolly mood) i may chase north. latest GFS is amazing....and actually the column is a bit colder! but as a resident of Mt. Hamilton in NE DC, i don't care for this trend. i always figured this one would be heavy snow into street puddles in the city but with so much snow just north, worth chasing... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/12/2024 at 11:28 AM, RevWarReenactor said: Well not so sure now maybe things are starting to turn in your favor just goes to show you how unpredictable the weather can be Should we call this a draw? We got to the 15th, and there are things to track within 6 days that have legitimate 3 inch potential for BWI, so by technicality I'd win the bet. Honestly, though, the pattern is NOT what it was being hyped up to be over the past few weeks, which was your reasoning behind making the bet. I'm willing to void it. How do you feel? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 54 minutes ago, Steve25 said: Should we call this a draw? We got to the 15th, and there are things to track within 6 days that have legitimate 3 inch potential for BWI, so by technicality I'd win the bet. Honestly, though, the pattern is NOT what it was being hyped up to be over the past few weeks, which was your reasoning behind making the bet. I'm willing to void it. How do you feel? That was kind of where my head was with it perhaps. I guess technically speaking you might have won by the skin on your teeth. Although it could potentially be debated as to whether this qualifies as a 3+ inch storm to track since models are both above and below that mark at times. Could go either way I guess. But the overall pattern certainly did not evolve as planned. So I’m good with a draw! Thanks for the bet! It was fun! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said: That was kind of where my head was with it perhaps. I guess technically speaking you might have won by the skin on your teeth. Although it could potentially be debated as to whether this qualifies as a 3+ inch storm to track since models are both above and below that mark at times. Could go either way I guess. But the overall pattern certainly did not evolve as planned. So I’m good with a draw! Thanks for the bet! It was fun! Yes, you're right. This storm is debatable, but I think there's a solid case for the 3+, especially considering there's a WSW. I'm absolutely not calling myself a winner. I feel like I more lucked out with this one. Well hey, I hope you are able to enjoy whatever we do get tonight. Hard to think there is too many punches left for winter to throw. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 1/12/2024 at 7:27 PM, raindancewx said: My personal view is you guys will still end up near average for snow. But most of it will come in a 2-4 week period starting in late February that runs through mid-March. Happy late February. Good old dark arts magic...i.e. counting the time between pattern changes. Still think an interesting period, even if it is brief, is coming nationally in March. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 2 hours ago, Steve25 said: Yes, you're right. This storm is debatable, but I think there's a solid case for the 3+, especially considering there's a WSW. I'm absolutely not calling myself a winner. I feel like I more lucked out with this one. Well hey, I hope you are able to enjoy whatever we do get tonight. Hard to think there is too many punches left for winter to throw. Thanks you too….! I tend to agree on winter. This might be it. Bottomline is- it’s just not cold. This storm tonight is pure luck on timing and even then temps are iffy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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