IronTy Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 hour ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: Just remember: we climate doomers were mocked all year on here. Now which of the two threads ended up being more accurate: this one or the long range thread? LOL The panic thread has been the most accurate of the threads for several years running. They should really just pin this one and let the LR thread languish because it's pretty useless as far as accurate forecasting goes. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 13 minutes ago, IronTy said: The panic thread has been the most accurate of the threads for several years running. They should really just pin this one and let the LR thread languish because it's pretty useless as far as accurate forecasting goes. Then why is it still called the “panic thread”? Shouldn’t it just be called the “Run of the mill-pessimism thread”? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, wasnow215 said: Then why is it still called the “panic thread”? Shouldn’t it just be called the “Run of the mill-pessimism thread”? It should be called the Long Range Thread. And the long range thread called the Hope and Pattern Change Thread. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 On 2/9/2024 at 7:14 AM, EastCoast NPZ said: Permanent ground hog day here. Every morning you wake up and see an amazing pattern 2 weeks away. Aaaaaaaaaaaannnndddd.............. That's the Deb Playbook Rule No 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 On 2/10/2024 at 5:50 AM, yoda said: Fine. I can't wait for the posts over the next few weeks trying to explain how these awesome looking pictures somehow failed us 1. Fiery hot base state. 2. Fuckin Hadley Cells. Hadley messed up the MJO. These two features are why we got epically Lucy'd after seeing those incredible model runs for weeks. BTW, this is basically the Deb Playbook Rule No. 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Welcome all to the Mid Atlantic Panic Room. We get teased by epic patterns 360 hours away, every day from Oct 1 to April 1. Here you get to be debbed nearly to death. There is always a perfectly rational reason we didn't get the deep snow the epic pattern advertised. There is always a perfectly irrational reason we didn't get the deep snow the epic pattern advertised. Lucy is in wonderful Superbowl form! And speaking of superbowls, the Niners lost so this is where we really stack up the bonuses! The Superbowl failed us, since we love the Ravens and we wanted the Niners to smash the chiefs, but the chiefs won. So not only do we get to be Lucy'd, we will also get Torched into the bargain! Abandon ALL hope up in here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamn3 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 lol this sucks dudes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamn3 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 I’m sure I ain’t the only one, but I just got the gut feeling that’s it for the year. Also I think this is just how it is these days. I’ll also bet money spring will be chilly and fuckin damp. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 21 hours ago, Steve25 said: Loading up that $20 for you. We have to give it until we officially make it through the 15th, but the writing is definitely all over the wall lol Well not so sure now maybe things are starting to turn in your favor just goes to show you how unpredictable the weather can be 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 So all those EPIC h5 looks really have dried up? Or is the good pattern actually happening it's just not going to produce snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Putting my 1,000th post in this thread for obvious reasons. It's snain season inside the beltway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 This place will be busy tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 shut this room down...the long range looks good again.....at least through next weekend 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 7 minutes ago, Ji said: shut this room down...the long range looks good again.....at least through next weekend Give it 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 I really hate this winter with a passion. So much hype. Just a bunch of teases. I don't think it would have been an epic winter to this point, but it would have been a really good one if some of these perfect track storms would have been snow. Sitting here waiting on the dryslot to fill in while I can see the back edge flying east. Looks like I am going to get one little band out of this for 45 minutes to an hour and that's it. Dumbest hobby ever. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 48 minutes ago, osfan24 said: I really hate this winter with a passion. So much hype. Just a bunch of teases. I don't think it would have been an epic winter to this point, but it would have been a really good one if some of these perfect track storms would have been snow. Sitting here waiting on the dryslot to fill in while I can see the back edge flying east. Looks like I am going to get one little band out of this for 45 minutes to an hour and that's it. Dumbest hobby ever. What pisses me off is I think it’s actually colder than modeled. But then the dryslot happened. Ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 54 minutes ago, osfan24 said: I really hate this winter with a passion. So much hype. Just a bunch of teases. I don't think it would have been an epic winter to this point, but it would have been a really good one if some of these perfect track storms would have been snow. Sitting here waiting on the dryslot to fill in while I can see the back edge flying east. Looks like I am going to get one little band out of this for 45 minutes to an hour and that's it. Dumbest hobby ever. See you tonight for the 00z suite 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Glad I chased today’s storm. I’d literally be bonkers right now if I hadn’t. I don’t know how you all do it. Even having to leave up here in NW New Jersey and going back to Delaware is triggering me. Especially after glancing at the model runs. We just don’t do winter anymore. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 7 hours ago, RevWarReenactor said: Glad I chased today’s storm. I’d literally be bonkers right now if I hadn’t. I don’t know how you all do it. Even having to leave up here in NW New Jersey and going back to Delaware is triggering me. Especially after glancing at the model runs. We just don’t do winter anymore. I chased the storm too, all the way from my bed to my yard. 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 8 hours ago, RevWarReenactor said: Glad I chased today’s storm. I’d literally be bonkers right now if I hadn’t. I don’t know how you all do it. Even having to leave up here in NW New Jersey and going back to Delaware is triggering me. Especially after glancing at the model runs. We just don’t do winter anymore. Annual family vacation to guaranteed snowy destinations. That's gonna be the way... Especially next year's Super Nina, +QBO, +AO, descending solar off a maximum, with continued marine heat waves off Japan and the West Pac warm pool. Did you see the CFS sst forecast in the NCEP ENSO update? Winter 2024-25 is going to be historic... and not in the way we want it. Look at this. Horrifying. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Annual family vacation to guaranteed snowy destinations. That's gonna be the way... Especially next year's Super Nina, +QBO, +AO, descending solar off a maximum, with continued marine heat waves off Japan and the West Pac warm pool. Did you see the CFS sst forecast in the NCEP ENSO update? Winter 2024-25 is going to be historic... and not in the way we want it. We're a lock for a HECS next year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said: We're a lock for a HECS next year. Ive had more Nina snow than Nino snow in the past few winters so I'll take my chances with the Nina at this point 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said: We're a lock for a HECS next year. I almost want to be the contrarian and just say next year will be the 95-96. Though I do wonder what the long range forecasts (if they even existed back then) were for that winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 hour ago, Terpeast said: Annual family vacation to guaranteed snowy destinations. That's gonna be the way... Especially next year's Super Nina, +QBO, +AO, descending solar off a maximum, with continued marine heat waves off Japan and the West Pac warm pool. Did you see the CFS sst forecast in the NCEP ENSO update? Winter 2024-25 is going to be historic... and not in the way we want it. Look at this. Horrifying. Honestly, we can't do a whole lot worse than this winter. It'll be warm/wet cold/dry, but maybe the cold will actually be cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just now, EastCoast NPZ said: Honestly, we can't do a whole lot worse than this winter. It'll be warm/wet cold/dry, but maybe the cold will actually be cold. We can't? Let me re-introduce you to last winter! Now THAT would be difficult to top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: We can't? Let me re-introduce you to last winter! Now THAT would be difficult to top. It's a 7" of mostly slop difference for me. I'll live. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: We can't? Let me re-introduce you to last winter! Now THAT would be difficult to top. I actually respect last winter. It didn't pretend to be anything that it wasn't, confident in its shortcomings. It was a Sigma Winter. This winter is worse. It's like some Milquetoast Beta winter that thought it had chops but turned out to be a total pretender with no jawline. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 33 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Honestly, we can't do a whole lot worse than this winter. It'll be warm/wet cold/dry, but maybe the cold will actually be cold. Both this and last winter we at least had some blocking. Next winter we probably won’t. Not to the extent that we have seen anyway. I’d want to see wholesale changes in the pacific and for the atlantic to cool off to change my outlook. Until then, I’m setting fare alerts on Google flights. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Both this and last winter we at least had some blocking. Next winter we probably won’t. Not to the extent that we have seen anyway. I'm fully expecting next winter to be a replay of last winter. It's going to be a dumpster fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 34 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Honestly, we can't do a whole lot worse than this winter. It'll be warm/wet cold/dry, but maybe the cold will actually be cold. 2012-2013 2016-2017 2019-2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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