Fozz Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: we just don’t have enough data yet to make actual operational changes in forecasting. models are at least trying to do that somewhat. i’m not even arguing that you’re wrong, but the game of trying to figure out what would or would not have worked like 50 years ago is a dangerous one. i’m not sure if there will ever come a point where i can say “that pattern used to work, but not anymore.” or at least not for a long time hell, most of the KU composites are formed from storms that have happened since 2000 as well. that data isn’t just becoming useless now It seems like the 2016 super Nino was a major game changer in terms of climate and global temps. If you look at the data, it becomes apparent that these super Ninos tend to break new ground when it comes to global warming. Same thing happened after 1998. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 4 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: At some point between last winter and the Canadian wildfires I transitioned into full-on climate doomer. I keep checking in the hopes we at least get a MECS to prove my worst fears wrong, in the short term at least… I have four young kids and it scares me what this planet is going to look like by the time they grow up. As someone who is legally a kid by the government: lack of snow is the least of our problems, if getting no snow on the east coast is what it takes for some science denying people to wake up then I’m down for it! and if you think it’s bad for your kids imagine their kids generation … Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: All science starts as speculation. That’s step 1. Yes we need to do more work to prove anything but that never happens if we squash the speculation. speculation is fine. my point is that it’s only speculation for now, and we can’t really make any definitive statements on the future of the weather unless we have enough data to do so. that’s all. i also think some regression to the mean from the torrid stretch between 2002-2016 is also hurting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The mountains in NW SC get a big winter once in a while. How did DC do that winter? About what Greenville or Spartanburg outside the mts do in a good year lol. Being from Greenville and having moved up here a bit over two years ago, I can vouch for this. And to your point, where I lived in Greenville got 8 inches in a January 2022 storm. It was a fluke, proving they can still happen, but that was the sort of thing that happened roughly every 5-6 years, not that long ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 I am fully on board the PSU train that the climate is changing. Not even wanting to fall down any type of GW rabbit hole. It just is obvious at this point. Not to kiss his butt, but PSU clearly knows his stuff. LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 @Maestrobjwa @brooklynwx99 Look I’m not JB or DT. If I’m wrong and in the next 10 years Baltimore averages 25” of snow I’ll gladly admit it. I’ve been wrong about many things in my life. And I have no problem admitting when I am. Yes this is somewhat speculative. But there is enough data to say the speculation has some merit and deserves further examination and attempts at proof. I hope I’m wrong. I hope we go into some 1960s snowgasm soon and I have to admit I was 100% wrong. We will see. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 I am close 2 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: speculation is fine. my point is that it’s only speculation for now, and we can’t really make any definitive statements on the future of the weather unless we have enough data to do so. that’s all. i also think some regression to the mean from the torrid stretch between 2002-2016 is also hurting 2002-2016 wasn’t torrid here. DC and Baltimore were below avg snowfall then, just less below than since! I made this point that 2002-2016 should have been a huge red flag for places like DC. It was an amazing run with a perfect mean long wave pattern. it won’t get much better than that ever. Yet while places further north were getting buried by 150% of normal snow we were getting 90%. Since 2000 DC and Baltimore decoupled from NYC wrt snowfall. They used to be correlated and get about the same % of normal most years. Not since. It started below 40*. It’s creeping north! Yes true recent period has sucked like the 50s and early 70s. But it’s worse than those! About 25% worse. The last good period was worse here than the ones before! Why do you expect the next favorable pdo amo cycle to buck that trend? Yes I suspect we will do better than now. That’s not my argument. But will we ever get back to when Baltimore averaged close to 25” which was true from 1890-1970? Or will the next good period avg 18”? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 enjoying a nice %@$*ing rain shower that should be a snow shower right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 2 minutes ago, Paleocene said: enjoying a nice %@$*ing rain shower that should be a snow shower right now Naw it would have been snow in NC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 I’d rather watch my Birds implode against the Bucs than look at another model run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 I just heard Brown is out Monday night. No snow for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 11 minutes ago, Clueless said: I’d rather watch my Birds implode against the Bucs than look at another model run. I'm with you. Been watching the eagles religiously since the Kotite era (too young for before that), and man, the collapse in the last 6 games rivals some pretty awful eras of Eagledom. At least I expect it! I think they'll get steamrolled Monday night, but I'll watch every minute nonetheless. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 pull this leg and it plays jingle bells- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 51 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: 2002-2016 wasn’t torrid here. DC and Baltimore were below avg snowfall then, just less below than since! I made this point that 2002-2016 should have been a huge red flag for places like DC. It was an amazing run with a perfect mean long wave pattern. it won’t get much better than that ever. Yet while places further north were getting buried by 150% of normal snow we were getting 90%. Since 2000 DC and Baltimore decoupled from NYC wrt snowfall. They used to be correlated and get about the same % of normal most years. Not since. It started below 40*. It’s creeping north! Yes true recent period has sucked like the 50s and early 70s. But it’s worse than those! About 25% worse. The last good period was worse here than the ones before! Why do you expect the next favorable pdo amo cycle to buck that trend? Yes I suspect we will do better than now. That’s not my argument. But will we ever get back to when Baltimore averaged close to 25” which was true from 1890-1970? Or will the next good period avg 18”? I used to wonder about that wide disparity between DC/Baltimore and NYC. Seems like that faster NS you mentioned due to the elephant, that was less willing to dig south probably had a big role in that disparity, and led to a lot of Miller Bs that buried New England and sometimes NYC, but screwed our area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 7 minutes ago, Prestige Worldwide said: pull this leg and it plays jingle bells- The mineral pyrite (/ˈpaɪraɪt/ PY-ryte),[6] or iron pyrite, also known as fool's gold, is an iron sulfide with the chemical formula FeS2 (iron (II) disulfide). Pyrite is the most abundant sulfide mineral.[7] Pyrite cubic crystals on marl from Navajún, La Rioja, Spain (size: 95 by 78 millimetres [3.7 by 3.1 in], 512 grams [18.1 oz]; main crystal: 31 millimetres [1.2 in] on edge) Pyrite's metallic luster and pale brass-yellow hue give it a superficial resemblance to gold, hence the well-known nickname of fool's gold. The color has also led to the nicknames brass, brazzle, and brazil, primarily used to refer to pyrite found in coal.[8][9] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pyrite 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 The fact that we are now posting MECS in the panic thread is telling. Tough times in Weenie-ville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Winter starts Monday and ends Sunday here- this is our winter week- will we get any snow that is the question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: @Maestrobjwa @brooklynwx99 Look I’m not JB or DT. If I’m wrong and in the next 10 years Baltimore averages 25” of snow I’ll gladly admit it. I’ve been wrong about many things in my life. And I have no problem admitting when I am. Yes this is somewhat speculative. But there is enough data to say the speculation has some merit and deserves further examination and attempts at proof. I hope I’m wrong. I hope we go into some 1960s snowgasm soon and I have to admit I was 100% wrong. We will see. I am happy that you finally admit that your message is speculation. You are good at what you say, but I am smart enough to see usually hidden speculation written all over it. NOAA which is one of the most respected authorities in the world says that our climate has warmed around 2 degrees F since 1880. Does anyone truly believe that magically a snow drought has occurred during the past 7 or 8 years because of this 2 F warming in the last 140 years? There are other factors at play that we don't know or understand. I have no doubt. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 26 minutes ago, stormy said: I am happy that you finally admit that your message is speculation. You are good at what you say, but I am smart enough to see usually hidden speculation written all over it. NOAA which is one of the most respected authorities in the world says that our climate has warmed around 2 degrees F since 1880. Does anyone truly believe that magically a snow drought has occurred during the past 7 or 8 years because of this 2 F warming in the last 140 years? There are other factors at play that we don't know or understand. I have no doubt. it's not like 2F of warming globally means it's 2F warming around the world in a uniform manner. Not only do you have varying degrees of warming in different parts of the world, but such changes alter weather patterns such that regional climates change fairly dramatically. That seems to be what we are seeing here. A good chunk of that 2F warming has occurred since the late 20th Century. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 9 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: it's not like 2F of warming globally means it's 2F warming around the world in a uniform manner. Not only do you have varying degrees of warming in different parts of the world, but such changes alter weather patterns such that regional climates change fairly dramatically. That seems to be what we are seeing here. A good chunk of that 2F warming has occurred since the late 20th Century. Great point. Obviously, we’re focused on the mid Atlantic, but what has occurred in other areas of the country the last 7-8 years that would be comparable to what we’ve experienced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Since we're dealing with the NFL playoffs, the GFS vs. ECMWF battle to me feels like... 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 12 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: it's not like 2F of warming globally means it's 2F warming around the world in a uniform manner. Not only do you have varying degrees of warming in different parts of the world, but such changes alter weather patterns such that regional climates change fairly dramatically. That seems to be what we are seeing here. A good chunk of that 2F warming has occurred since the late 20th Century. In support of your thoughts, NOAA says that the warming rate has doubled since 1981 but the pier reviewed data still says 2 F since 1880. The climate is always changing and has been for millions of years. Any speculation about the next 50 or 100 years is just that. But, a snow drought since 2016 in D.C. because of this? I don't believe NOAA would support that idea. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-temperature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 If this week doesn’t produce I need to be reaped. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 56 minutes ago, stormy said: I am happy that you finally admit that your message is speculation. You are good at what you say, but I am smart enough to see usually hidden speculation written all over it. NOAA which is one of the most respected authorities in the world says that our climate has warmed around 2 degrees F since 1880. Does anyone truly believe that magically a snow drought has occurred during the past 7 or 8 years because of this 2 F warming in the last 140 years? There are other factors at play that we don't know or understand. I have no doubt. Most of the warming has been recent and it has been accelerating. And yes, I think I’ve seen enough 37 degree rainstorms and 65 degree January/February days to believe climate is changing and is affecting the amount of snow we get. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 25 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Most of the warming has been recent and it has been accelerating. And yes, I think I’ve seen enough 37 degree rainstorms and 65 degree January/February days to believe climate is changing and is affecting the amount of snow we get. I agree with you, I also believe the climate is changing as it has for millions of years and it will continue in the future. That is one of the most certain factors regarding life on earth. I also believe that other factors are at play in low snow totals for much of the last 10 years. Regarding 65 degree days in January or February? In Staunton, January 24 of 1967- 71 degrees, January 25 of 1967- 72 degrees, January 26 of 1967 -71 degrees, January 27 of 1967 - 70 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 @stormy you obviously haven’t followed my whole argument. Never have I blamed 100% of our snow drought on warming. Our snowfall is greatly affected by cyclical pacific and Atlantic sst patterns that you can easily track. Sometimes we go through great periods when they are in a positive cycle concurrently. Sometimes they are both bad and we get periods like this. And sometimes they’re in conflict and we get some combo. But our good and bad cycles are deteriorating linearly. It’s hard to see if you focus on any small chuck of time because it’s buried within the up and down cycles of snowfall. But if you pull back to see the ups are less up and the downs are more down. Example. We’ve had this same cycle we’re in now before. From 1949-57 and 1971-77. And both sucked for snow. DC averaged about 11” during those years which was way below avg in those periods. But from 2017-2024 DC is averaging 6”. 6 is worse than 11! 11 was bad. 6 is worse! Im not saying the last 8 years should have been good. The best analog to this pattern was the 2 previous least snowy cycles in our recorded history. But it’s been 40% worse that those! And our last “snowy” cycle from 2003-2016 was 30% worse than 1958-1971 the previous snowy one! What I’m saying is the ups are less up and the downs are more down. We are bleeding snow away and we didn’t have that much to give! Fibally 2F is HUGE when 50% of DCs snow always came with temps near freezing. We aren’t Daluth. 50 years ago we were already on the southern edge of the climate zone where snow was a “normal reliable” occurrence. Even back then snow was an anomaly that might not happen much at all year to year in places like Raleigh NC. More recently Richmond has entered that zone. And imo the 2016 super Nino pushed it one more notch and now DC is south of the line where snow is a normal reliable winter event. If you asked me to quantify it I’d say DC area has lost about 30% of their snow climo. DC is probably where Richmond was before now. Snow can happen. There can even be a 30” season. Richmond used to get them. But I know growing up in DC area when I’d hear people in Richmond complain about no snow I’d snicker it’s not supposed to snow down there. They are south of the “it’s supposed to snow in winter” line. That’s us now! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Buda is under a winter weather advisory for accumulating frzra Sun night, tenth of an inch accretion on overpasses. That's just great. And frigid weather too. I am filling dozens of five gallon Containers with fresh water. We will lose the water lines to freezing because of low temps near ten above. Yuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 6 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: i wouldn’t consider the start of the month great. we had to recover from a torched source region, and we’ve just started a legitimately more favorable pattern. favorable patterns also only increase the odds of snowfall, they don’t guarantee it. let’s get to the relaxation in late Jan and re-evaluate when the 17th and 20th pass also, if mets or others see a good pattern coming up, there’s no point in not pointing it out or noting that there’s high potential. that’s what this thread is for I’ve heard this excuse like 5 times in the last several years. “You can’t expect it to snow despite a perfect track storm in a perfect long wave pattern because we are recovering from a torch”. That’s total 100% complete utter BS! If it takes weeks to recover from a bad pattern for us to snow…that just proves my point! In most winters we’re going to get a pac puke onslaught. It’s rare to get a winter where at some point there is no jet extension and a flood of maritime air. If we need a Fng month to recover from that…well math is really not on our side! About 5 years ago I did a case study analysis of every 5” snowstorm at BWI back to 1948! I looked at the loading pattern out to 10 days before each. We’ve had a ton of snowstorms through that history when the pattern flipped better from a “torched” pattern and we didn’t have to wait weeks. Guess what we even had some wet snowstorms during pac puke regimes in the past. It’s becoming the distant past now though. Some years we won’t ever get a favorable pattern to lock in for more than a week or two all winter. And there’s why we’ve been getting virtually no snow at all a lot lately. Yea those years would have always been bad. But in a year we’re the mean pattern is going to flood the continent with pac air if we need 3 weeks to recover it won’t snow at all. We don’t get that chance! The long wave pattern flipped Dec 23-26. That’s when the pac onslaught ended. The perfect track rainstorm was Jan 7. There is no excuse for that. Yes it did take that long. Yes we are just now getting a cold enough airmass. It took 4 cutters and a perfect track rainstorm to slowly lower heights and pull down slightly colder air behind each wave 3 weeks! That’s a problem. Most winters we will be Fd if it takes 3 weeks to get cold enough following a torch! I hate that I keep having to play devils advocate. It makes me seem more negative that I am. I still think we eventually get a good snowstorm this year. I’ll be shocked if we don’t. I agree with the pattern. I’ve said as much. But…I’m not nearly the optimist you are. Im somewhere in between you and Ji. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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