psuhoffman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Agreed. The second time period looks much better on paper. But honestly, how long are we going to continue playing this game ie "Well, this storm didn't turn out being the one because (fill in the blank) came along unmodeled and mucked it up....BUT the next period REALLY is the one that has everything going for it"? I'm not saying that in anger or jest towards anyone. This is more about the wx pattern in general and just throwing my hands up saying wtf do we need to do anymore? I'm just flabbergasted that every threat window that comes along past few years has had something minor come along and ruin it. This next window every HL telleconnection is lined up but watch the stj turn off just during that window with no wave to interact. It's always something. That's my frustrated rant. Thanks for listening. Just throwing this out there... we have been in a hostile cycle of the pacific and atlantic for the last 7 years, one that rivals previous "bad periods" with similar mean long wave patterns over a similar 7-8 year period. But this was HAS been like 25% worse. I know for the last year and a half of winter we've had absolutely no snow but in the larger 8 year period we're frustrated with we have had some snow. But during that time we have also had numerous "perfect track rainstorms". Yes those were always a thing, but IMO never at the frequency they are happening now. So if some of those had been snow we aren't in this 700 day snow drought right now and the last 7 years are more in line with previous bad periods. It's probably just that simple. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 2 hours ago, RevWarReenactor said: I lived in Tinton Falls/ Mon County for 30 years. Born in Long Branch at Mon Medical. My Ex grandparents live in Whiting. People seem way too enthusiastic in the LR thread over next Tuesday's rainstorm. I am just not seeing much of anything other than a brief cool down followed by more cutters. i know for a certainty i'm going to regret this but what are ex-grandparents? like an ex-parrot or is it something else? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 7 minutes ago, MacChump said: i know for a certainty i'm going to regret this but what are ex-grandparents? like an ex-parrot or is it something else? LOL.....That meant to say Ex's grandparents. EX GF's grandparents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 34 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said: LOL.....That meant to say Ex's grandparents. EX GF's grandparents lol that makes more sense 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 RE: January 16th: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tplbge Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 You know it's a bad winter when early dismissals for rain outnumber early dismissals for snow. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 3 hours ago, 87storms said: We didn’t have any big snows outside of Snowzilla in ‘16, but I do have a couple inches in my records from Feb 15 (looks like it stuck to all surfaces) and several snow showers/icing events. I was living in Bethesda at the time, so there might have been more further nw. 3 hours ago, RevWarReenactor said: Wasn't the 15/16 season one storm? Warm Rain, 40 inches of snow. Warm Rain. Not that one should complain about that, but I'd have preferred it spread out. 3 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: IMBY: 2014/2015 Nov- 3.6 Dec- 0.7 Jan- 0.2 Feb- 23.1 March- 6.1 33.7 total, plus 37 'T's 2015/2016 Jan- 19.1 Feb- 7.8 March- 5.0 Apr- 1.5 33.4 total, plus 19 'T's Granted 15/16 got off to a slower start, but went deeper into the year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Where's @NorthArlington101's cycle? We're BACK BABY 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 4 hours ago, paulythegun said: RE: January 16th: reverse jinxed it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 quick someone tell me why the GFS is right and the CMC is wrong because its the CMC, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, Paleocene said: quick someone tell me why the GFS is right and the CMC is wrong because its the CMC, right? The CMC actually does suck 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Ummmm CMC scores better than the GFS. It’s been posted how the Canadian isn’t the suckfest it used to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 That being said the GFS is run by blind squirrels who sometimes find that nut. Let’s hope this is one of them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 I haven't seen the scores, but I think the GFS has been generally good the last couple years. It hasn't really showed much in the way of any digital blue...which would be accurate. I actually use the GFS now up until within 24 hrs. Whether that's the correct way or not, I don't know, but I've seen the NAM miss enough times close to gametime that I find it more useful for showing potential convection than a broad brush of temps/precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 I almost didn't make. I almost barfed in the LR thread. Anyway.. I'm going to get ready to make a frozen dogshitman next week. I'm sure it will warm up in time for our next tropical storm. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Euro vs the world. I think I know who wins. Always go with the least snowiest model 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 hour ago, 87storms said: I haven't seen the scores, but I think the GFS has been generally good the last couple years. It hasn't really showed much in the way of any digital blue...which would be accurate. I actually use the GFS now up until within 24 hrs. Whether that's the correct way or not, I don't know, but I've seen the NAM miss enough times close to gametime that I find it more useful for showing potential convection than a broad brush of temps/precip. The GFS does a decent job with rainfall totals. I’ve made some accurate 3 day forecasts with it as a heavy contributor. I’ve been burned quite a few times by the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Yuck. Temps with the arctic front in south central TX, are expected to fall to 10 degrees. Highs only in the upper 20s, I think Monday? I am going to lose all my beloved plants, have to start completely over again. Thank goodness spring starts for us March 1. We are supposed to be 60 this time of year. This ten degree bull is getting ridiculous. And guess what, not even one frackin' DROP of liquid non freezing rain with the front! Not one drop! Not one! No one on this forum had the heart to admit to me that a near record frigid monster high pressure, was gonna slam hard right into Texas! This is Year 3 of the Drought. No rain. Texas is gonna blow away. Even less water than California! Diaspora is imminent! Too many people moving to Texas, wonderful folks from Central America coming on in and also millions of people from other parts of the country! Jobs are incredible here! Never seen so much construction! Everyone is sucking up the aquifer water too! Boy I am gonna love it when I have no more well water and we are all fighting tooth and nail for the little water left in the Colorado River! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 If these streaks can just make it through this winter, we can really put up some impressive numbers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Can you believe some Moron was posting 500mb maps of December 2024 today?Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 11 minutes ago, Ji said: Can you believe some Moron was posting 500mb maps of December 2024 today? Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Gee, who could have that been? Either way, that “moron” saved me a lot of time knowing next winter will be a rat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Gee, who could have that been? Either way, that “moron” saved me a lot of time knowing next winter will be a rat Hopefully I saved you 40 pages 85000 words and 9 daysSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 3 minutes ago, Ji said: Hopefully I saved you 40 pages 85000 words and 9 days Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk That took more than 9 days! Like way more lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 That took more than 9 days! Like way more lolOh geez. All for zero inches of snow so far smhSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Modeling continues to indicate higher probabilities for freezing precip over south central TX for Sunday night/Monday. Along with expected sub freezing ambient temps, there may be travel impacts. I was so hopeful this crap could be avoided this winter down here. Surely we have paid our penance for winter nonsense last late Jan/early Feb with that devastating three quarter inch icestorm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Modeling continues to indicate higher probabilities for freezing precip over south central TX for Sunday night/Monday. Along with expected sub freezing ambient temps, there may be travel impacts.I was so hopeful this crap could be avoided this winter down here. Surely we have paid our penance for winter nonsense last late Jan/early Feb with that devastating three quarter inch icestorm!Why are you posting this in the panic room? Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 If these streaks can just make it through this winter, we can really put up some impressive numbers.Seems like Philly and nyc are in similar streaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 It’s so over 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 18z GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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