WxWatcher007 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 5 hours ago, Wxdavis5784 said: Why wait bro? Come on in... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 6 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said: it was on the globals... it was on the ens... we flagged this period around Christmas... Possibly losing this one blows and idrc what the people who pretend to come on this forum with zero emotions til the day of think. I don't believe them, quite frankly It's humbling to know we can (potentially) still lose it all in the MR. In theory one would like to think that means we could stumble into a great storm (Jan 2022?) in the mid-range too. Also nice to know that the models def don't have it all figured out... that's the eventual death of this hobby. Devils advocate…didn’t those of us that have played this game long enough kinda know deep down in our gut that we were playing with fire seeing those marginal temps and that our area being on the southern edge of the consensus snow at 150 hours was not ideal? Come on admit it…almost every major snow event from 100-150 were either in the bullseye or the northern edge of the snow. That’s why the “fringed” joke with me. We want me to be fringed at 120 hours? If I’m worried about mixing at day 6 we’re not in a great spot! I hinted at that but I didn’t want to be the Deb so I mostly stayed quiet. Things can trend to snow from day 5. And it’s possible we still get a decent event if this new evolution trends our way. But the truth is even if guidance didn’t show a big hit day 6 we would probably see the signs it could trend that way and we wouldn’t be caught surprised. Think back to Dec 2009. It wasn’t on guidance like that from 7 days but we saw the potential and were tracking it and knew it has a good chance to trend into that! We knew inside this wasn’t a great look at day 6 to get a big snow and we probably would identify a threat that wasn’t looking big verbatim but had the potential to trend better also! We’ve become very pretty good at this game in this sub I think. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Devils advocate…didn’t those of us that have played this game long enough kinda know deep down in our gut that we were playing with fire seeing those marginal temps and that our area being on the southern edge of the consensus snow at 150 hours was not ideal? Come on admit it…almost every major snow event from 100-150 were either in the bullseye or the northern edge of the snow. That’s why the “fringed” joke with me. We want me to be fringed at 120 hours? If I’m worried about mixing at day 6 we’re not in a great spot! I hinted at that but I didn’t want to be the Deb so I mostly stayed quiet. Things can trend to snow from day 5. And it’s possible we still get a decent event if this new evolution trends our way. But the truth is even if guidance didn’t show a big hit day 6 we would probably see the signs it could trend that way and we wouldn’t be caught surprised. Think back to Dec 2009. It wasn’t on guidance like that from 7 days but we saw the potential and were tracking it and knew it has a good chance to trend into that! We knew inside this wasn’t a great look at day 6 to get a big snow and we probably would identify a threat that wasn’t looking big verbatim but had the potential to trend better also! We’ve become very pretty good at this game in this sub I think. We’re so back 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 lol this storm - drama!!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: We’re so back Guess I need to go look at the gfs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 F$&! I was kinda looking forwards to a good nights sleep 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: F$&! I was kinda looking forwards to a good nights sleep Shocking developments Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Imagine if this storm does a double rug-pull lmao 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 5 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Shocking developments I forgot how exhausting this is. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 On the next episode of Jerry Springer, the GFS.. every model run there’s a plot twist with this dang thing.. what a time to be a met for the nws trying to forecast for the general public. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Now to watch Doug Kammerer latch onto it and whip up a frenzy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 To whomever runs this place currently: NOW IS THE TIME TO DIG THE GRAVES. DO NOT STOP UNTIL EITHER SNOW IS FALLING OR THE LAST WEENIE HAS BEEN LAID TO REST. THE BACK OF THE PROPERTY IS A GOOD LOCATION. 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 5 minutes ago, Chase said: Now to watch Doug Kammerer latch onto it and whip up a frenzy. he was pretty measured but looked excited lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 I thought we would be saying congrats State College tonight lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 7 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: To whomever runs this place currently: NOW IS THE TIME TO DIG THE GRAVES. DO NOT STOP UNTIL EITHER SNOW IS FALLING OR THE LAST WEENIE HAS BEEN LAID TO REST. THE BACK OF THE PROPERTY IS A GOOD LOCATION. YOU run this place, Reaper! You do your job! Do NOT pass the Buck! It stops right here! The Buck stops with YOU!! Now get out there and fookin' REAP! Show 'em how its done!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Those who have been pulled back in are fools. Looking at those fake accumulation maps, all that stuff on the edges is snow that doesn't stick. When will you all learn. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 PS: The Euro is clearly smoking the funny weed. No way coastal NJ gets a foot + all the way to the beaches. Discard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 We finally get a really good early 00z runs and then the rug gets pulled at 6z. GEPS completely waffles in the LR. Man the is hobby is frustrating sometimes. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 The 12z and 18z model suite might be the most important runs in the last 2 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 hour ago, 87storms said: The 12z and 18z model suite might be the most important runs in the last 2 years. I wonder if the final chapters are written on this now. I am thinking not and there will be some shifts but places like my yard are so on the line of completely nothing to a little something comes down to a few miles. every map the next tier of accumulations stops right on my fault line. I call it my fault line because it was my fault I was too lazy to drive further NW. "Sure this area looks ok and affordable. I am tired and need a drink lets buy this house" 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 It’s the OP, but yea, check out this block to ridge hook up. Puke . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 7 minutes ago, Heisy said: It’s the OP, but yea, check out this block to ridge hook up. Puke . You really need to stop this manic behavior. What is the point of posting this? I'm not trying to attack you so don't take it personally. Everyone knows there's potential things could go wrong. Posting an operational map 16 days away is ridiculous. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 11 minutes ago, HighStakes said: You really need to stop this manic behavior. What is the point of posting this? I'm not trying to attack you so don't take it personally. Everyone knows there's potential things could go wrong. Posting an operational map 16 days away is ridiculous. As we are seeing with this upcoming weekend posting an operational map 6 days away is ridiculous. 16 days might as well be next winters map. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 16 minutes ago, HighStakes said: You really need to stop this manic behavior. What is the point of posting this? I'm not trying to attack you so don't take it personally. Everyone knows there's potential things could go wrong. Posting an operational map 16 days away is ridiculous. It’s like whiplash every 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 should be an auto-timeout posting 300+ hr maps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 14 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: Imagine if this storm does a double rug-pull lmao yes, yes I could imagine that. now a triple rug pull?...that would be something. pull the rug for a 3rd time like Friday night 0z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 hours ago, HighStakes said: You really need to stop this manic behavior. What is the point of posting this? I'm not trying to attack you so don't take it personally. Everyone knows there's potential things could go wrong. Posting an operational map 16 days away is ridiculous. Too early to start panicking about next fall? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 29 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Too early to start panicking about next fall? you beat me to this. whenever someone complains about a long range map, gotta up the ante with some CFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 This is hard to watch. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 I see the Reaper @WxWatcher007 is here to mow the weenies down and stack them up. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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