Panic Room - Winter 23/24 Edition

[BristowWx]

5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

We’ll have to see if 00z can top it. I think it might

I’m getting a lot more sleep this winter.  When’s the last time we stayed up for a Euro run?  

[NorthArlington101]

I’m getting a lot more sleep this winter.  When’s the last time we stayed up for a Euro run?  

January 2022 probably

[wxdude64]

1 hour ago, benjammin said:

The whole outdoor wedding trend on farms, in barns, etc. especially during the summer is an unfortunate one. I'm glad I've only had to do one of them as a minister.

Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk
 

 

59 minutes ago, MacChump said:

attended one on July 4th weekend in austin, tx one year

Double OUCH!

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

January 2022 probably

By 384 Canada is vodka cold however.  

[Jebman]

34 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I’m getting a lot more sleep this winter.  When’s the last time we stayed up for a Euro run?  

December 2015 into January 2016, tracking the GB16 storm in late Jan '16.

[Jebman]

3 hours ago, Chris78 said:

Lol  Honesty though it does feel like snow is going to be hard to come by for a while. I try to stay positive but there does seem to be a disconnect.  No storm and cold enough or storm but too warm. We shall see.

Going to deep creek to ski in late January. Can't count on snow around these parts. Gotta get my fix somehow lol.

Grass skiing is fun. Got to watch out for those ROCKS though.

[mdhokie]

Not gonna deb the LR thread, but so far this is actually a worse ski season than last year. It is becoming apparent that this coming weekend will be cooler but not enough to repair the machine made snowpack. 

[Jebman]

Winter is officially over. This is ridiculous. Canada is warm and many ski resorts are out of Business.

Every storm is rain. I have officially lost all hope forever and you can call me a deb.

Palisades and Mammoth are getting missed and are struggling to make artificial snow. Rain has been falling at 10,000 feet. The base state is completely screwed up and we have been officially Lucy'd, probably into the foreseeable future. Texas is dry as a martini on New Years Eve in Times Square!

This winter is so fooking BAD, that we are setting up brand new snow futility markers lmao.

I am seriously thinking about changing my Name, to Debman.

[Eskimo Joe]

I'm out. Enjoy the false promises in the long range. I was hoping I'd be wrong and we'd get snow this winter, but it's obvious there's no chance. I still hope I'm wrong and get mercilessly bump trolled in a few weeks, but we're making an honest run at a winter as bad as last year. PSU was right, our snow climo is forever screwed.

[Rhino16]

Does that count as SE ridge on the GFS? Or something else causing warmth?

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

I'm out. Enjoy the false promises in the long range. I was hoping I'd be wrong and we'd get snow this winter, but it's obvious there's no chance.

Might I suggest the Site blocker app? It will prevent you from coming on here, TT, Weatherbell, or any other weather site for however long you want. I've started using it to limit my time on here...Less exposure will be better for ya--trust me, lol

[PrinceFrederickWx]

LMAO I’m almost ready to post the annual Omen scene already @WxWatcher007

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, Rhino16 said:

Does that count as SE ridge on the GFS? Or something else causing warmth?

It's an overwhelming Pacific jet that torched Canada for weeks. Our oceans have warmed and once that gets cranking it takes forever for it to wind down and then we waste peak climo rebuilding our source region. I don't see how we ever meet or exceed climo in these parts again unless it's a worthless storm like 2015-2016 where we get one small window and statistically get an average winter.

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, Rhino16 said:

Does that count as SE ridge on the GFS? Or something else causing warmth?

Not a SE ridge. Look at the 500 mb panels. A SE ridge is usually that orange blob that comes out of the southeast...but that isn't there now.

[WVclimo]

13 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I'm out. Enjoy the false promises in the long range. I was hoping I'd be wrong and we'd get snow this winter, but it's obvious there's no chance. I still hope I'm wrong and get mercilessly bump trolled in a few weeks, but we're making an honest run at a winter as bad as last year. PSU was right, our snow climo is forever screwed.

lol.  December 27th.  Congrats !

[Jebman]

10 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

LMAO I’m almost ready to post the annual Omen scene already @WxWatcher007

You should post a scene in which the entire CONUS is burning up, with weenies like myself frantically jumping all over.

[dallen7908]

8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

It's an overwhelming Pacific jet that torched Canada for weeks. Our oceans have warmed and once that gets cranking it takes forever for it to wind down and then we waste peak climo rebuilding our source region. I don't see how we ever meet or exceed climo in these parts again unless it's a worthless storm like 2015-2016 where we get one small window and statistically get an average winter.

If it's any comfort (as you know) our climatology gets reset every 10 years and I suspect at least one year in the 30's will top 10".   Also, the warming of the oceans will likely slow in the near future as much of the sulfate has already been scrubbed and we'll only have greenhouse gases to blame.  Plus if we live long enough the PDO will become favorable at some point. 

My concern is that if this continues, all of the "it could snow in this pattern" posters will get discouraged and we'll be left with a site filled with images from 300+ hour GFS runs.  Wait ... 

 

 

[snowfan]

18 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I'm out. Enjoy the false promises in the long range. I was hoping I'd be wrong and we'd get snow this winter, but it's obvious there's no chance. I still hope I'm wrong and get mercilessly bump trolled in a few weeks, but we're making an honest run at a winter as bad as last year. PSU was right, our snow climo is forever screwed.

lol. Giving PSU way too much credit. Folks need to stop worshiping him. 

[Jebman]

2 minutes ago, snowfan said:

lol. Giving PSU way too much credit. Folks need to stop worshiping him. 

Not PSU's fault. Its the warming planet. I thought those anomalous warm oceans would help the snow. Naaaah. All the warm ocean did was bring tons of frackin' RAIN.

[IronTy]

2 minutes ago, Jebman said:

Not PSU's fault. Its the warming planet. I thought those anomalous warm oceans would help the snow. Naaaah. All the warm ocean did was bring tons of frackin' RAIN.

I've been saying this for years but I might as well be howling at the moon.  The warming ocean WILL help produce monster snowstorms...up until a point.  And then it'll be just too warm to snow at all and we'll only end up as rain.  We had a blowout season in 09-10 and the NE had one five years later like I expected.  And it's generally sucked since then.  Now we're in the rain-only phase.   Might as well embrace it and welcome the arrival of anoles and geckos followed by larger and ever more dangerous reptiles as the years go by.  

[Rhino16]

23 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

It's an overwhelming Pacific jet that torched Canada for weeks. Our oceans have warmed and once that gets cranking it takes forever for it to wind down and then we waste peak climo rebuilding our source region. I don't see how we ever meet or exceed climo in these parts again unless it's a worthless storm like 2015-2016 where we get one small window and statistically get an average winter.

 

22 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Not a SE ridge. Look at the 500 mb panels. A SE ridge is usually that orange blob that comes out of the southeast...but that isn't there now.

Yeah, I guess it lacks the clockwise flow you’d see from a high. People I know are clamoring about February, but I’m not optimistic.

[Jebman]

6 minutes ago, IronTy said:

I've been saying this for years but I might as well be howling at the moon.  The warming ocean WILL help produce monster snowstorms...up until a point.  And then it'll be just too warm to snow at all and we'll only end up as rain.  We had a blowout season in 09-10 and the NE had one five years later like I expected.  And it's generally sucked since then.  Now we're in the rain-only phase.   Might as well embrace it and welcome the arrival of anoles and geckos followed by larger and ever more dangerous reptiles as the years go by.  

Yeah we are in the rain only phase. Except in places like the Southwest where it will get hotter and much much drier with time. Everyone is moving to Texas but that will change once the water runs out. Then they will be flocking to places like New Orleans and the central Gulf states where they get 50 plus inches a year without breaking a sweat.

In the meantime, hail mary topic is running, last ditch effort to shore up hopes. I am truly a deb now. That topic will unfortunately get Lucy'd as well. I have many other hobbies besides snow.

Winter is Coming? Yeah, the cold rain is coming - and lots of it for the East, naso much for Texas. We will be dry and sunny.

I'll be debbing and debbing and debbing from now on. Winter IS over, even before NYE.

[Maestrobjwa]

28 minutes ago, Rhino16 said:

 

Yeah, I guess it lacks the clockwise flow you’d see from a high. People I know are clamoring about February, but I’m not optimistic.

The fact that El Niños are mostly backloaded is reason for more optimism...or at least middling expectations, lol This is not the first above average niño to look like this on December 27th. So looking forward to mid/late January isn't unreasonable given the history.

[RIC_WX]

1 hour ago, mdhokie said:

Not gonna deb the LR thread, but so far this is actually a worse ski season than last year. It is becoming apparent that this coming weekend will be cooler but not enough to repair the machine made snowpack. 

It doesn’t really look like it will be cold enough to fire the snow guns before Sunday night either.  I am sure they are going to try and stay open this weekend at wisp but this fog and mid 40s temps is for sure going to eat the snowpack alive, whatever is remaining over there.  A sad reprisal of 2021 it appears for new years.

[clskinsfan]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

worthless storm like 2015-2016

A 40 inch storm is never worthless. And it may be that is the most likely way for us to get snow in the future. 

[RIC_WX]

42 minutes ago, IronTy said:

I've been saying this for years but I might as well be howling at the moon.  The warming ocean WILL help produce monster snowstorms...up until a point.  And then it'll be just too warm to snow at all and we'll only end up as rain.  We had a blowout season in 09-10 and the NE had one five years later like I expected.  And it's generally sucked since then.  Now we're in the rain-only phase.   Might as well embrace it and welcome the arrival of anoles and geckos followed by larger and ever more dangerous reptiles as the years go by.  

The consensus in the 1970s was we were heading into another ice age and not much would stop it.  50 years later now look at us.

If it was about to turn hard in another direction again how would anyone know?  And if it’s cold again in 50 years but we’re all dead anyway does it even matter?  Probably not

[Maestrobjwa]

6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

A 40 inch storm is never worthless. And it may be that is the most likely way for us to get snow in the future. 

I can't believe how folks are still ungrateful for that storm...I mean, look how the winters since that one have looked! Be grateful for crying out loud!

[IronTy]

15 minutes ago, RIC_WX said:

The consensus in the 1970s was we were heading into another ice age and not much would stop it.  50 years later now look at us.

If it was about to turn hard in another direction again how would anyone know?  And if it’s cold again in 50 years but we’re all dead anyway does it even matter?  Probably not

We need to hope for a THC shutdown.  Or maybe Greenland just all melts one summer and throws us into an ice age.  Or maybe a supervolcano or asteroid hit.  Those could turn things in our favor on a dime . 

[snownut]

2 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

I would refuse.

I have little say in the matter. Step daughter is a school teacher. We asked her for a September October wedding date but she said too busy.  Its being held at our Aldie home. Contract is set for catering, music, tent etc... and wife just signed a contract to have the swimming pool renovated and updated this spring. (talk about $$)  Ouch.. My wife is an only child both parents have passed away. Its her childhood home so lots of history and in beautiful setting.  But oh man July 20th in Virginia is not where I would choose to be.  I'll be a good hubby and step dad, stand, sit and smile when directed, and be very thankful the whole event isn't on my tab.  LOL  

[Albedoman]

for those who are dejected and wishing to cancel winter based on the latest model runs do not fret ---- I am an historical meteorologist . You may ask what the hell is that?  I rely on my personal weather pattern experiences  over the last 50 years since  I have been old enough to enjoy the knowledge of weather since I was 12 years old. I learned much weather from uncle who was the regional head forecasting meteorologist for NOAA (NWS) in the western US.   I also was an air traffic controller in the Navy and graduated with a BS physical geography degree with a concentration in atmospheric science(Before many meteorological  schools were even around).  I do not rely solely LR daily model runs until the storms are within 48-72 hours period. Anything else is simply conjecture.  I only rely on LR models to help establish the future temp/precip  ranges and the possibilities of changes in the long term weather patterns. That is it. I was using my personal  experiences and senses in the early 70's to 80's when there were no daily 8 hour model runs and the only models were spit out in a past weekly bulletin on the weeks previous storm events. I spent more time analyzing the storm patterns such as neutral, el nino and la nina patterns  instead of relying just on LR computer model ensembles. Weather has been boiled down  to  a simple game of statistical chances by using computer model ensembles. Right or wrong, I side with past history

Right now I see nothing but cold polar air bottled up in northern Canada with pacific cold fronts flowing zonally across the country Alberta Canada is where we get our cold air from except for an occasional backdoor cold front. There is nada coming from either direction  right now. The southern jet stream is buckling but the northern stream will not come down into mid USA period to phase and deepen the lows.  Until we get an LP over Alberta forming a clipper  bringing  that locked up polar air in Canada to the central US and introducing a potential pattern change,  there is nothing we can do but watch models kick the potential 3-6 in snow events further into the 10-15 day time frame.   WE must have sustainable cold- WE HAVE NONE.

The potential of a 2-4 or 3-6 in  snow event keeps showing up  during the Jan 9-11 time frame but that is all it is. When I see it show up on the NAM at 36 hours- thats doable IMHO.  

My past personal history for those who believe in what  I do,  compares this year to 1993 where we had a crappy el nino winter 2-4 inches of snow until late February where we did get some accumulating snow event followed by the March superstorm  which was a triple phaser.  The el nino years below in a sample ranking chart . Please note 1958 has been thrown in the rankings  for your forum too in February.  (Morgantown blizzard) The winters are definitely back loaded for heavy snow sure in these years with some cold. It is  just that we usually get cold sustainable cold in neutral years from the passage of continuous clippers as the el nino pattern is dying-- last gasp storm event before going into a neutral year.  Remember how the severe cold in early 1994 set in that was attributable from weakening neutral year with the combination of MT Pinatubo eruption? We have not had a  neutral winter in a long time.  3+ years.   Lets see what the second to third week of January can throw at us?

Ranked El Niño Events by 3-Month Season
Rank	DJF	JFM	FMA	MAM	AMJ	MJJ	JJA	JAS	ASO	SON	OND	NDJ
1	1983	1983	1983	1983	1983	1997	1997	1997	1997	1997	1997	1997
2	1998	1998	1998	1998	1992	1983	1987	1987	1987	1982	1982	1982
3	1973	1992	1992	1992	1998	1992	1972	1972	1972	1972	1972	1972
4	1931	1931	1931	1987	1987	1987	1983	1982	1982	1987	1902	1930
5	1992	1973	1987	1941	1941	1941	1905	1905	1905	1902	1930	1965
6	1966	1919	1941	1931	1993	1993	1982	1902	1965	1930	1987	1902
7	1919	1987	1926	1926	1900	1900	1902	1965	1902	1965	1941*	1991
8	1926	1941	1958	1993	1997	1905	1941	1957	1930	1941	1965*	1941