Panic Room - Winter 23/24 Edition

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

The blinds, they have been shat upon!!!

[87storms]

What? there absolutely is an effect. Hagerstown is at like 500ft ASL, the Catoctins then top out over 1800ft just to the East. Wolfsville is definitely not benefitting from upslope, but it's not because the terrain isn't high enough. It's because they're only at 1000ft ASL and 1.5 miles East of the highest terrain in the Catoctins. They're sitting in a shadow too. It's not as bad as what Thurmont faces but it's enough to be easily seen on a map (below).

The rain shadow effect is prob somewhat exaggerated, but the Catoctins (while small) do rise sharply (so sharply that mountain biking national races have been held there). It’s an impressive little mountain chain. I drove through Gambrill today and there’s still snow up at the top and absolutely nothing at the bottom. It’s pretty wild. Obviously, the last snow was mostly due to elevation and likely not so much from upslope, but downsloping effects can be seen all year long as snow showers and tstorms sometimes fade as they sag south from the northwest…it’s a limited effect, but not non-existent imo.

[BristowWx]

1 hour ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

The blinds, they have been shat upon!!!

idub…posted that image from 342 yesterday….4 runs later…the look holds…of course it does…makes you chuckle 

[Jebman]

1 hour ago, 87storms said:

The rain shadow effect is prob somewhat exaggerated, but the Catoctins (while small) do rise sharply (so sharply that mountain biking national races have been held there). It’s an impressive little mountain chain. I drove through Gambrill today and there’s still snow up at the top and absolutely nothing at the bottom. It’s pretty wild. Obviously, the last snow was mostly due to elevation and likely not so much from upslope, but downsloping effects can be seen all year long as snow showers and tstorms sometimes fade as they sag south from the northwest…it’s a limited effect, but not non-existent imo.

Really interesting mapout of precip wrt rain shadow effects.

[BristowWx]

1 hour ago, Jebman said:

Really interesting mapout of precip wrt rain shadow effects.

Jeb…Christmas looks toasty…what do we do?  

[Jebman]

4 hours ago, BristowWx said:

Jeb…Christmas looks toasty…what do we do?  

Keep the faith. Snow is coming, even though I may have been balls wrong about Christmas and New Years lmao. 

[ravensrule]

1 hour ago, Jebman said:

Keep the faith. Snow is coming, even though I may have been balls wrong about Christmas and New Years lmao. 

Who even knew you had balls. 

[87storms]

Really interesting mapout of precip wrt rain shadow effects.

Yea, it clearly shows that being on the lee side of some of the locally higher ridges can shave off some annual precip totals.

[ers-wxman1]

A good day to all. Making my first post in quite some time. The media, backyard meteorologists, and even some private sector Mets got sucked into the mentality of “ It’s El Niño” we will get clobbered. Yes, there have been records of strong El Niño years producing a record snow/storm, but our climate whether you believe it or not is changing. It’s been 8 years since we’ve seen an 18”+ event. Everyone sees El Niño and out flies the coop on 30-40” snowfall for the area, big snows. Only problem is…where is the cold air? There is none, it’s locked way up and not coming down anytime soon. Don’t believe me? It’s mid December. How many wind chill warnings or sub zero airmasses have come down into the northern Plains this season? About none so far. El Niño is only one factor in a giant puzzle. The inexperienced look at one or two factors then run with it. This will be a warm and wet winter for most on this sub forum, even the I-81 corridor. We will see one shot at a big storm but with typical I-95 temp issues and accumulations N and W of 95. Couple smaller events here and there and that will be it for the 23/24 season. Very disappointing. Local ski resorts minus Snowshoe will be hurting this year. There is simply nothing in place to lock in cold air, and what is available isn’t even cold. I expect the drought to be over by March. There will be so much rain over the next three months that the word drought won’t be around for a while. 

[Jebman]

Can we please have some of that fresh rain here in Texas? 

 

This Nino is so out of joint that I don't think TX will get much rain out of it.

[87storms]

A good day to all. Making my first post in quite some time. The media, backyard meteorologists, and even some private sector Mets got sucked into the mentality of “ It’s El Niño” we will get clobbered. Yes, there have been records of strong El Niño years producing a record snow/storm, but our climate whether you believe it or not is changing. It’s been 8 years since we’ve seen an 18”+ event. Everyone sees El Niño and out flies the coop on 30-40” snowfall for the area, big snows. Only problem is…where is the cold air? There is none, it’s locked way up and not coming down anytime soon. Don’t believe me? It’s mid December. How many wind chill warnings or sub zero airmasses have come down into the northern Plains this season? About none so far. El Niño is only one factor in a giant puzzle. The inexperienced look at one or two factors then run with it. This will be a warm and wet winter for most on this sub forum, even the I-81 corridor. We will see one shot at a big storm but with typical I-95 temp issues and accumulations N and W of 95. Couple smaller events here and there and that will be it for the 23/24 season. Very disappointing. Local ski resorts minus Snowshoe will be hurting this year. There is simply nothing in place to lock in cold air, and what is available isn’t even cold. I expect the drought to be over by March. There will be so much rain over the next three months that the word drought won’t be around for a while. 

I’m not as concerned about the break between hecs because we have had some long breaks. I know dc didn’t do great with the superstorm, so that was more like an 87 to 96 break. I think the big issue right now is our lack of being able to get a snowfall from start to finish…even a minor one. It’s just a battle lately. I mentioned this in the LR thread, but it also seems like the cold air from Canada is arriving more so in pockets than a broad banana high type of scenario, which I’m assuming is either due to lack of blocking or a less than ideal pacific (causing downstream impacts to the nao). I’m sure a warmer Atlantic isn’t helping either, especially with coastals. I guess spring will bring some interesting analysis about this winter, for better or worse lol.

[EastCoast NPZ]

I'm good if the rain materializes.  I know that snow exists only in memory in my area.

[katabatic]

13 hours ago, ers-wxman1 said:

A good day to all. Making my first post in quite some time. The media, backyard meteorologists, and even some private sector Mets got sucked into the mentality of “ It’s El Niño” we will get clobbered. Yes, there have been records of strong El Niño years producing a record snow/storm, but our climate whether you believe it or not is changing. It’s been 8 years since we’ve seen an 18”+ event. Everyone sees El Niño and out flies the coop on 30-40” snowfall for the area, big snows. Only problem is…where is the cold air? There is none, it’s locked way up and not coming down anytime soon. Don’t believe me? It’s mid December. How many wind chill warnings or sub zero airmasses have come down into the northern Plains this season? About none so far. El Niño is only one factor in a giant puzzle. The inexperienced look at one or two factors then run with it. This will be a warm and wet winter for most on this sub forum, even the I-81 corridor. We will see one shot at a big storm but with typical I-95 temp issues and accumulations N and W of 95. Couple smaller events here and there and that will be it for the 23/24 season. Very disappointing. Local ski resorts minus Snowshoe will be hurting this year. There is simply nothing in place to lock in cold air, and what is available isn’t even cold. I expect the drought to be over by March. There will be so much rain over the next three months that the word drought won’t be around for a while. 

This is well written. Meteorology - at its core - is about the study of heat transfer. I am in banking for my 'real job' and at our core all we do is buy and sell money. That's it. Now with both professions, there are spider legs that extend far beyond our core study to make them both endlessly complex. An important part of that complexity is when you inject as much heat as we have into the world over the last 30 years and especially the last 5-10, the physics of how heat is transferred throughout the oceans and atmosphere must change in response. Oceans have absorbed what, 90% of the heat added in that time? And they are acting funny. I do not think anyone can decipher what and how this will exactly impact our local climate this winter and the years following, but what was said above hits the nail on the head. It is simply too warm and when you are in/on the margins as we are here in the MA, it doesn't take a whole lot to knock us off our rocker. Nobody knows with any level of certainty what will happen more than 2 weeks out and we may still get lucky with aligning stars as the winter progresses - hell, I moved to Oakland primarily for the snow - so, I hope we do. But when you add so much heat to an already delicately balanced world, the atmospheric response we've seen in the past decade will likely be an ever-intensifying mirror of what is reflecting back on us now.

[87storms]

2 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

I'm good if the rain materializes.  I know that snow exists only in memory in my area.

The fun part is days start getting longer in less than 2 weeks.

[EastCoast NPZ]

2 hours ago, 87storms said:

The fun part is days start getting longer in less than 2 weeks.

Ugh

[aldie 22]

17 hours ago, ers-wxman1 said:

A good day to all. Making my first post in quite some time. The media, backyard meteorologists, and even some private sector Mets got sucked into the mentality of “ It’s El Niño” we will get clobbered. Yes, there have been records of strong El Niño years producing a record snow/storm, but our climate whether you believe it or not is changing. It’s been 8 years since we’ve seen an 18”+ event. Everyone sees El Niño and out flies the coop on 30-40” snowfall for the area, big snows. Only problem is…where is the cold air? There is none, it’s locked way up and not coming down anytime soon. Don’t believe me? It’s mid December. How many wind chill warnings or sub zero airmasses have come down into the northern Plains this season? About none so far. El Niño is only one factor in a giant puzzle. The inexperienced look at one or two factors then run with it. This will be a warm and wet winter for most on this sub forum, even the I-81 corridor. We will see one shot at a big storm but with typical I-95 temp issues and accumulations N and W of 95. Couple smaller events here and there and that will be it for the 23/24 season. Very disappointing. Local ski resorts minus Snowshoe will be hurting this year. There is simply nothing in place to lock in cold air, and what is available isn’t even cold. I expect the drought to be over by March. There will be so much rain over the next three months that the word drought won’t be around for a while. 

Thanks

[NorthArlington101]

Biggest GFS run of the season coming up... until the next one.

[nj2va]

20 hours ago, ers-wxman1 said:

A good day to all. Making my first post in quite some time. The media, backyard meteorologists, and even some private sector Mets got sucked into the mentality of “ It’s El Niño” we will get clobbered. Yes, there have been records of strong El Niño years producing a record snow/storm, but our climate whether you believe it or not is changing. It’s been 8 years since we’ve seen an 18”+ event. Everyone sees El Niño and out flies the coop on 30-40” snowfall for the area, big snows. Only problem is…where is the cold air? There is none, it’s locked way up and not coming down anytime soon. Don’t believe me? It’s mid December. How many wind chill warnings or sub zero airmasses have come down into the northern Plains this season? About none so far. El Niño is only one factor in a giant puzzle. The inexperienced look at one or two factors then run with it. This will be a warm and wet winter for most on this sub forum, even the I-81 corridor. We will see one shot at a big storm but with typical I-95 temp issues and accumulations N and W of 95. Couple smaller events here and there and that will be it for the 23/24 season. Very disappointing. Local ski resorts minus Snowshoe will be hurting this year. There is simply nothing in place to lock in cold air, and what is available isn’t even cold. I expect the drought to be over by March. There will be so much rain over the next three months that the word drought won’t be around for a while. 

You must be a hit at parties

[Jebman]

I have now kicked the hell out of this so-called piece of shyte called "el nino". I have punted the fook out of it! I have had all I can take from a stupid piece of shoosh called a so-called EL NINO that ain't worth its weight in shyte! EVERY damned rain is MISSING US! NO EXCEPTIONS!

Texas is CURSED! I had my heart all set on getting decent rains this winter from Nino. What a FRACKIN' DISAPPOINTMENT! I wish I lived in Cherrapunji India where they get 1000 inches of rain every year!

This will be a record DRY winter in Texas, and it will be followed by a summer so damned HELLISH, that I will fervently wish my mom and dad had never fookin met!

[cbmclean]

Apparently, Jebman is an optimist about snow but a pessimist about rain.

[paulythegun]

#NEverForget the victims of El Nino: sailors boiled alive in the east pacific

[WxUSAF]

Webb’s got a good short thread for all you today. Saying it might be best to root for a deep western trough and build up snowcover. Then hopefully we can sneak something in by early February before the inevitable March torch. Fingers crossed!

[North Balti Zen]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Webb’s got a good short thread for all you today. Saying it might be best to root for a deep western trough and build up snowcover. Then hopefully we can sneak something in by early February before the inevitable March torch. Fingers crossed!

Lol. He’s such a predictable troll.

[BristowWx]

On 12/14/2023 at 4:48 PM, NorthArlington101 said:

Biggest GFS run of the season coming up... until the next one.

This latest run was a doozy.  Gas up your mower.  Take that gas from the blower. 

[katabatic]

11 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

This latest run was a doozy.  Gas up your mower.  Take that gas from the blower. 

CPCs 3-4 week outlook was equally sobering. Takes us through 50% of met winter with no sustained cold in sight. 

[BristowWx]

18 minutes ago, katabatic said:

CPCs 3-4 week outlook was equally sobering. Takes us through 50% of met winter with no sustained cold in sight. 

Luck my friend.  We will need luck and timing to get something.  It could happen but we won’t know until it’s right in front of us.  Any good looks beyond 3 days will be candyland.  

[87storms]

Luck my friend.  We will need luck and timing to get something.  It could happen but we won’t know until it’s right in front of us.  Any good looks beyond 3 days will be candyland.  

It doesn’t seem any colder than last year so far, but the pattern does seem like it’s getting more active, which obviously increases the odds of timing.

[Eskimo Joe]

38 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

We have now kicked blocking all the way to late winter? I thought the NAO was supposed to be negative most of the winter?

Stockholm Syndrome is alive and well in the LR thread.

[Jebman]

The forecast is dismal with this rain system even at Jay Peak. Fifties dewpoints, torrential rainfall, SUBSTANTIAL MELTING of their existing snowpack.

I have now officially lost faith with this entire low sun season. I have punted not only the sorry excuse of a so-called el nino, but I have now punted the entire winter in Texas, punted all chances for rain, probably clear across 2024 and 2025! The long term forecast is horrific, it will only become even DRIER! The Pacific will be full of huge storms but not one of them will ever hit Texifornia! I am still holding out some hope for the Mid Atlantic, but the Southwest will continue seasonably cool and extremely DRY, throughout the low sun period then an early fiery spring, followed by a record hot summer with no rain at all. We are going to experience wildfires in Texas in 2024. Forestry folks are gonna start referring to the Lone Star State as TEXIFORNIA, the fires are going to be so hellish!

Record amounts of people are moving into the Austin region as the job market down here is hotter than ever! While new construction is exploding at exponential rates! Vast apartment blocks are being constructed and fill up with people in days. We are building up so many apartment blocks down here we are putting China to SHAME! We are going to use up all of the available water within a couple of years at this rate, and with the extreme exceptional dryness even in the winter, let alone in our hellish long summers, it wont be long before we have NO options for fresh water. Hello Maya. Hello Diaspora.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

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