Panic Room - Winter 23/24 Edition

[WinterWxLuvr]

2 hours ago, 87storms said:

I think it’ll snow at some point in the next 4 months, unless it doesn’t.

I think I agree with you. Or maybe I don’t.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Best post yet … “guaranteed cold”

[dailylurker]

It's not good when every time I log on the most popular thread is the panic room. I'm getting vibes of the past shitty winters lol

[MillvilleWx]

First day of Met winter was less than a week ago and we have 6 pages of the Panic Room. Never change y’all 

[mattie g]

4 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

First day of Met winter was less than a week ago and we have 6 pages of the Panic Room. Never change y’all 

As I said this past weekend:

On 12/2/2023 at 5:05 PM, mattie g said:

We’re punting the next three weeks, and the models have sucked at ranges beyond that, so it’s looking like a shit winter since we’re going into mid-January with no snow on the board.

 

[87storms]

59 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I think I agree with you. Or maybe I don’t.

We can certainly agree to disagree.

[87storms]

54 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

First day of Met winter was less than a week ago and we have 6 pages of the Panic Room. Never change y’all 

Yea, but being patient about things we can't control isn't nearly as fun even though it would be completely rational.

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, mattie g said:

As I said this past weekend:

 

You're learning.

[WinterWxLuvr]

2 hours ago, 87storms said:

We can certainly agree to disagree.

Maybe. I just don’t know yet

[MillvilleWx]

On 12/2/2023 at 5:05 PM, mattie g said:

We’re punting the next three weeks, and the models have sucked at ranges beyond that, so it’s looking like a shit winter since we’re going into mid-January with no snow on the board.

This seems to be the MO the past 2 decades outside a couple crazy good years. I basically expected nothing in December, so I’m not too disappointed…yet 

[Eskimo Joe]

On 12/2/2023 at 5:05 PM, mattie g said:

We’re punting the next three weeks, and the models have sucked at ranges beyond that, so it’s looking like a shit winter since we’re going into mid-January with no snow on the board.

There's a lot of Stockholm syndrome going on in the long range thread. We just subconsciously punt 30% of winter now by default, which leaves us maybe 4 or 5 weeks before the sun angle becomes a problem. This isn't a winning strategy in these parts anymore. I genuinely have tried to be optimistic this year, but it's clear we're in a world of hurt unless things change right quick. Each day that passes the clock ticks louder and louder as the snowfall futility markers inch closer.

[TSSN+]

8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

There's a lot of Stockholm syndrome going on in the long range thread. We just subconsciously punt 30% of winter now by default, which leaves us maybe 4 or 5 weeks before the sun angle becomes a problem. This isn't a winning strategy in these parts anymore. I genuinely have tried to be optimistic this year l, but it's clear we're in a world of hurt unless things change right quick. Each day that passes the clock ticks louder and louder as the snowfall futility markers inch closer.

 

[North Balti Zen]

You’ve genuinely tried to be optimistic this year?

[aldie 22]

56 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

You’ve genuinely tried to be optimistic this year?

I bet he chews his lip skin off he's so uptight 

[Jebman]

The Nino is damaged goods.

There are basically two places in the US getting precip. One is the northeastern ski resorts. They are getting demolished, especially for so damned early in the year. The other is the Pac Northwest, specifically Washington and Oregon. Pac storms are hammering those two states, one after the other in a long conga train. Texas is high and dry, no rain at all, long term is dry, and we are averaging about 5-10 degrees above normal.

The subtropical jet is not only a failed beast, it is a frackin' miscarriage! It is a miserable FAILURE! 

We did FAR BETTER in the Nina and also in a Neutral enso state. I am punting this Nino for Texas, that was one HELL of a kick, I kicked that sucker way over the walls of the stadium! The opposing team is DROUGHT, they've got the football and they do nothing but get the 1st down over and over and over again. The DROUGHT is winning down here and it is an EMBARRASSING shutout. We are a 89679057656750585576978946766800346707th seed, weather wise.

Mid Atlantic is the bright spot in all of this. You guys are still on track for a lot of snow and bitter cold this winter.

[Eskimo Joe]

2 hours ago, North Balti Zen said:

You’ve genuinely tried to be optimistic this year?

Yes

[nj2va]

17 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

There's a lot of Stockholm syndrome going on in the long range thread. We just subconsciously punt 30% of winter now by default, which leaves us maybe 4 or 5 weeks before the sun angle becomes a problem. This isn't a winning strategy in these parts anymore. I genuinely have tried to be optimistic this year, but it's clear we're in a world of hurt unless things change right quick. Each day that passes the clock ticks louder and louder as the snowfall futility markers inch closer.

March seems like more of a snow month than December the last 10 years. 

And lol at 4-5 weeks being our window. 

[rclab]

On 12/5/2023 at 10:56 AM, dailylurker said:

It's not good when every time I log on the most popular thread is the panic room. I'm getting vibes of the past shitty winters lol

 

8 minutes ago, nj2va said:

March seems like more of a snow month than December the last 10 years. 

And lol at 4-5 weeks being our window. 

Good after noon everyone. The New England forum was discussing, sometimes sarcastically, a very light dusting. Damage In Tolland gave the following observation; “tiny weenie flakes and it’s very difficult to remain safe.” The Reaper may be inactive but like any retired Capo he still has agents in the field. Stay well, safe and above all hopeful. As always ….

 

[PrinceFrederickWx]

44 minutes ago, nj2va said:

March seems like more of a snow month than December the last 10 years. 

And lol at 4-5 weeks being our window. 

Looking at IMBY records the last ten years, this is true. I have had three WSW events in March (2014, 2015, 2018). In December I have had ZERO.

It does seem like winter IMBY is increasingly being boxed into January. I've had six WSW events in January in the last ten years, while February has had only two, and it's been a long time too (President's Days 2015 & 2016).

[Jebman]

Okay, so now that I have completely PUNTED the el nino, that wasnt even a real nino......

I expect some drizzle in Texas thru about June.

We will receive NO winter rains of any consequence. The subtropical jet is weak.

We will NOT get our spring rains between March and early June.

Summer will be about 7 degrees hotter than last summer.

This means numerous highs around 105, with some highs around 110. Many lows in the low 90s.

Pools will be unmanageable and full of algae by July 1 2024.

Many Ogallala wells will run dry. There will be a clamor for connection to scarce city waters.

There will be so many people sucking from the Colorado that it will dry up like the Euphrates.

The Diaspora will begin, people moving out, moving east to places like central Mississippi and central Alabama where the annual rainfall is far higher than in the Edwards Desert of central Texas.

The Mayan Catastrophe will be repeated in modern times, this time upon the Texas population.

The Mayans ran out of water. We will too. Southwest is drying up and getting hotter.

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, Jebman said:

The Mayan Catastrophe will be repeated in modern times, this time upon the Texas population.

The Mayans ran out of water. We will too. Southwest is drying up and getting hotter.

Perspective.  This^^ type of panic is justified. Exagerrated, but justified. Worrying about snowflakes? Prolly nasomuch.

[Jebman]

17 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Perspective.  This^^ type of panic is justified. Exagerrated, but justified. Worrying about snowflakes? Prolly nasomuch.

I exaggerated it, but yes we are prone to drought down here. And we tend to be concerned over aquifer levels. One thing I am not exaggerating is the insane amount of construction down in Buda and Kyle. I deliver there every night. I have been watching them gobble up every last square foot of land not already privately owned. They get done constructing new apartment complexes and they are filled to bursting with new folks within a couple of weeks! Buda/Kyle is turning into Northern Virginia, I watched the same phenomenon take place in Dale City/Woodbridge in the 1990s. One thing that is good about a billion apartments is PLENTY of deliveries! Everyone is welling down to the aquifer and with all these people moving here into the excellent weather capital of the American nation, I worry about water availability ESPECIALLY as current meteorological trends show Texas getting alarmingly drier and drier and drier.

With respect to the Mid Atlantic, I worry about you guys not getting snow. I remember living there and agonizing over every run of the models. I want you all to get lots and lots of wind driven torrential snow along with severe vodka cold straight from Severomorsk in Russia. I crave a comma head getting captured in such a manner that the entire DMV Region gets blasted by absolutely INSANE 7 inch per hour snow rates for Days, and you guys end up like the Blizzard of 1978 right in NW DC and Tracker has to escape out the top floor of his apartment complex just to get out the building! That would be truly preeeecious! lol

[SnowenOutThere]

 

[dallen7908]

I find it kind of pathetic that I'd be ecstatic if 4% of Sunday's predicted precipitation in my back yard (2.5" or so) falls as snow. 

[EastCoast NPZ]

5 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:

I find it kind of pathetic that I'd be ecstatic if 4% of Sunday's predicted precipitation in my back yard (2.5" or so) falls as snow. 

Yep, we're relegated to being happy with 34F slush trashcan toppers.

[paulythegun]

[psuhoffman]

25 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Advertised surface temps with moderate to heavy precip falling (snow verbatim). It would certainly require dynamic cooling to get it done. At the very least I am feeling pretty good about a couple inches of slop in PSU's yard to save winter.

Putting this here so it doesn’t derail the storm thread. I’m also worried about surface temps. But I’m also frustrated because this SHOULD work. This exact setup has worked many times and yes this early in the season or even earlier!  This isn’t like next weekend when the cold is scoured by the pac vortex. There is reasonable cold to work with.  At least as much cold as were ever going to have in a string nino. The 540 line ends up south of us during the event. Not like next week when the 540 is up near Hudson Bay. That next storm doesn’t bother me if it’s a perfect track rain so much. But if we get this wave to develop like the euro and gfs are showing and it’s just a 37 degree white rain despite sub 540 thicknesses that bothers me a lot.  We already had 2 events up here that I’m pretty confident would have been 1-3” in the past but ended up too warm to accumulate at all even here.  Good news is if true it renders my 1” by whatever date data kinda irrelevant.  Bad news is you have to subtract all those lost marginal events from your expectations for the season. But if this goes that way too it’s just another sign we are definitely losing snow on the margins.  

And frankly our snow climo sucked to begin with so we don’t have a lot of margins to afford to give. 
 

ETA; the boundary layer is warming faster. So seeing so many events over the last 5 years where everything went right except the boundary layer was just a couple degrees too warm is a horrible sign.  I keep coming back to that storm on Super Bowl Sunday in 2021. That should have been 3-6” in DC and Baltimore. Everything went right, perfect teach in prime climo with a modified  continental  airmass not pac puke and it was barely even cold enough to snow here and 95 was just cold rain. That was eye opening to me. Seeing more examples like that would not be good.  For my own sanity I want to see this end as some accumulating snow even outside high elevations. Maybe not in the cities but places like IAD should get 1” from something like this. 

[EastCoast NPZ]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Putting this here so it doesn’t derail the storm thread. I’m also worried about surface temps. But I’m also frustrated because this SHOULD work. This exact setup has worked many times and yes this early in the season or even earlier!  This isn’t like next weekend when the cold is scoured by the pac vortex. There is reasonable cold to work with.  At least as much cold as were ever going to have in a string nino. The 540 line ends up south of us during the event. Not like next week when the 540 is up near Hudson Bay. That next storm doesn’t bother me if it’s a perfect track rain so much. But if we get this wave to develop like the euro and gfs are showing and it’s just a 37 degree white rain despite sub 540 thicknesses that bothers me a lot.  We already had 2 events up here that I’m pretty confident would have been 1-3” in the past but ended up too warm to accumulate at all even here.  Good news is if true it renders my 1” by whatever date data kinda irrelevant.  Bad news is you have to subtract all those lost marginal events from your expectations for the season. But if this goes that way too it’s just another sign we are definitely losing snow on the margins.  

And frankly our snow climo sucked to begin with so we don’t have a lot of margins to afford to give. 

The vast majority of snow is always on the margin to begin with.  Margins of being barely cold enough.  Rare is the snow falling with temps in the teens.  It's usually 27 - 32F.  Add 3F background warmth to that ... we're cooked.  Literally and figuratively. 

[Jebman]

................................And, as always, I insist that the Mid Atlantic is going to get annihilated by torrential snow and vodka cold this winter!

--This has been a public service message from The Jebman.

[87storms]

I find it kind of pathetic that I'd be ecstatic if 4% of Sunday's predicted precipitation in my back yard (2.5" or so) falls as snow. 

I’m actually kinda retired from these stat padder, non-accumulating snow events, unless it’s pouring parachutes that accumulate on elevated surfaces. Otherwise, I want a legit snowstorm…at least 2-4”.