nj2va Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 On 12/1/2023 at 8:05 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: @psuhoffman I don't believe received his 1" of snow by Dec 1 Expand Need to add a "not" to this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 Doug K nailed last year’s snowfall forecast, though it would be kinda funny if he’s way off this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 On 12/1/2023 at 3:54 PM, Ji said: its dec 1 and we are 0-2 in snow windows...i think we are cookedOur winters are now only two months long, so we still have time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 On 12/1/2023 at 8:05 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: @psuhoffman I don't believe received his 1" of snow by Dec 1 Expand His other 50 inches next couple months will make up for it. IAD 43 inches should equate to 50 at PSU Knob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 On 12/1/2023 at 8:10 PM, nj2va said: Need to add a "not" to this. Expand I gotchu... 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 2, 2023 Share Posted December 2, 2023 On 12/1/2023 at 8:05 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: @psuhoffman I don't believe received his 1" of snow by Dec 1 Expand All these above normal snowfall predictions are in trouble if things don't start changing quickly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted December 2, 2023 Share Posted December 2, 2023 On 12/2/2023 at 12:02 AM, Eskimo Joe said: All these above normal snowfall predictions are in trouble if things don't start changing quickly. Expand We could obviously still get above average, but the epic winter calls like 02/03 and 09/10 are already in serious trouble IMHO. We would need to start getting on the board soon or we’re already falling behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 2, 2023 Share Posted December 2, 2023 On 12/2/2023 at 12:17 AM, PrinceFrederickWx said: We could obviously still get above average, but the epic winter calls like 02/03 and 09/10 are already in serious trouble IMHO. We would need to start getting on the board soon or we’re already falling behind. Expand In 09 we had had no snow at this point if I’m not mistaken. In Winchester we had 51” of snow in 10 days at the end of Jan into the first of Feb. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 2, 2023 Share Posted December 2, 2023 I'm just glad the Mount PSU snow correlation doesn't apply to my yard. 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 2, 2023 Share Posted December 2, 2023 On 12/2/2023 at 1:25 AM, WinterWxLuvr said: In 09 we had had no snow at this point if I’m not mistaken. In Winchester we had 51” of snow in 10 days at the end of Jan into the first of Feb. Expand By this time in 2009, we were looking at the first event, Dec 5th, and things were trending our way. It's the exact opposite just 14 years later. We bleed the wrong way 9.9/10 times. LWX AFD from 12/1/09: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=AFDLWX&e=200912012006 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted December 2, 2023 Share Posted December 2, 2023 On 12/2/2023 at 2:05 AM, Eskimo Joe said: By this time in 2009, we were looking at the first event, Dec 5th, and things were trending our way. It's the exact opposite just 14 years later. We bleed the wrong way 9.9/10 times. LWX AFD from 12/1/09: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=AFDLWX&e=200912012006 Expand What about 2014? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted December 2, 2023 Share Posted December 2, 2023 On 12/2/2023 at 2:05 AM, Eskimo Joe said: By this time in 2009, we were looking at the first event, Dec 5th, and things were trending our way. It's the exact opposite just 14 years later. We bleed the wrong way 9.9/10 times. LWX AFD from 12/1/09: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=AFDLWX&e=200912012006 Expand Do you get paid to cry? 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 2, 2023 Share Posted December 2, 2023 On 12/2/2023 at 3:11 AM, Wxdavis5784 said: What about 2014? Expand We already had mixed precip in the grids: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=ZFPLWX&e=201412010230 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 2, 2023 Share Posted December 2, 2023 Winter is still on track for the Mid Atlantic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted December 2, 2023 Share Posted December 2, 2023 On 12/2/2023 at 3:14 AM, Eskimo Joe said: We already had mixed precip in the grids: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=ZFPLWX&e=201412010230 Expand I guess I should just break out the shorts and make a fucking martini. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted December 2, 2023 Share Posted December 2, 2023 On 12/2/2023 at 3:14 AM, Eskimo Joe said: We already had mixed precip in the grids: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=ZFPLWX&e=201412010230 Expand I would bet you and others would be shitting their pants if we had an early season snowfall, finding reasons to correlate to a warm winter. Just stop FFS! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 2, 2023 Share Posted December 2, 2023 On 12/2/2023 at 3:18 AM, Wxdavis5784 said: I would bet you and others would be shitting their pants if we had an early season snowfall, finding reasons to correlate to a warm winter. Just stop FFS! Expand Not really sure what you're trying to get at here. I love snow, I'm just grounded in reality down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted December 2, 2023 Share Posted December 2, 2023 On 12/2/2023 at 3:20 AM, Eskimo Joe said: Not really sure what you're trying to get at here. I love snow, I'm just grounded in reality down here. Expand I’m just saying your posts are more bipolar than Kanye at the White House… 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted December 2, 2023 Share Posted December 2, 2023 @WxWatcher007 Can you please come out of retirement just once and take my soul? I promise to have Angel of death by Slayer playing on repeat and will lurk for eternity. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted December 2, 2023 Share Posted December 2, 2023 Here's a little chart I made of the top ten winters at BWI from 1893 onward, along with the corresponding first snow. (Note: LWX has said snowfall data before 1893 for BWI is of questionable quality, so I excluded those). For all of the winters, there was at least one accumulating event by Dec 13. My only point is that if we're going to be having an epic winter, it probably needs to start snowing really soon to keep up. If it doesn't, then our upper limit is the next tier down like 1987, 2016, 1966, etc. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 2, 2023 Share Posted December 2, 2023 On 12/2/2023 at 1:22 PM, PrinceFrederickWx said: Here's a little chart I made of the top ten winters at BWI from 1893 onward, along with the corresponding first snow. (Note: LWX has said snowfall data before 1893 for BWI is of questionable quality, so I excluded those). For all of the winters, there was at least one accumulating event by Dec 13. My only point is that if we're going to be having an epic winter, it probably needs to start snowing really soon to keep up. If it doesn't, then our upper limit is the next tier down like 1987, 2016, 1966, etc. Expand Can you do this for the bottom 10 as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted December 2, 2023 Share Posted December 2, 2023 On 12/2/2023 at 1:29 PM, Eskimo Joe said: Can you do this for the bottom 10 as well? Expand I'm about to head out but I can when I get time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 2, 2023 Share Posted December 2, 2023 First signs of concern from @CAPE. The signal is degrading? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 2, 2023 Share Posted December 2, 2023 On 12/2/2023 at 1:55 PM, cbmclean said: First signs of concern from @CAPE. The signal is degrading? Expand Not the signal!! What I said was the advertised h5 look on the Pacific side has degraded on the means over the last several runs. I should probably be banned from here for this post- if I have done anything to inhibit the panic, I apologize. Please carry on.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 2, 2023 Share Posted December 2, 2023 On 12/2/2023 at 2:11 PM, CAPE said: Not the signal!! What I said was the advertised h5 look on the Pacific side as degraded on the means over the last several runs. I should probably be banned from here for this post- if I have done anything to inhibit the panic, I apologize. Please carry on.. Expand Maybe we can squeeze something in during late January/early February before the inevitable Nino March torch?? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 2, 2023 Share Posted December 2, 2023 On 12/2/2023 at 1:22 PM, PrinceFrederickWx said: Here's a little chart I made of the top ten winters at BWI from 1893 onward, along with the corresponding first snow. (Note: LWX has said snowfall data before 1893 for BWI is of questionable quality, so I excluded those). For all of the winters, there was at least one accumulating event by Dec 13. My only point is that if we're going to be having an epic winter, it probably needs to start snowing really soon to keep up. If it doesn't, then our upper limit is the next tier down like 1987, 2016, 1966, etc. Expand I have my doubts this is a top tier winter. I'm optimistic it can be an above average winter though for the area. We're looking at Kirk Cousins not Patrick Maholmes lol. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 2, 2023 Share Posted December 2, 2023 since this winter is over, should we start the Winter 24-25 thread? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 2, 2023 Share Posted December 2, 2023 Since I'm lapping the field in the snowfall contest, I expect the same level of respect Kammerer got for his call last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 2, 2023 Share Posted December 2, 2023 On 12/2/2023 at 2:41 PM, nj2va said: since this winter is over, should we start the Winter 24-25 thread? Expand I saw a tweet about it being a Nina….maybe start a 25-26 thread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 2, 2023 Share Posted December 2, 2023 On 12/2/2023 at 3:05 PM, LP08 said: I saw a tweet about it being a Nina….maybe start a 25-26 thread. Expand Solar forcing going to be crappy for another few years. Might want to look forward to like 30-31. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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