December Mid/Long Range Discussion

[Imgoinhungry]

Who decided 384 was the cutoff for model runs, I want to have a friendly “chat” with them tonight about the 18z gfs.

Except the low will be 300 miles west next run and it will be a cold rain with 34 degree temps.


.

[Kevin Reilly]

19 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said:

Except the low will be 300 miles west next run and it will be a cold rain with 34 degree temps.


.

Let's just extrapolate that run!

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

52 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

That's like cutting off the Jaws music after one note, lol

[Eskimo Joe]

45 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said:

Except the low will be 300 miles west next run and it will be a cold rain with 34 degree temps.

Not with a fresh high pressure nosing down like that. So long as that remains, no way something like that can cut. If anything, it's suppression. Then again, why am I analyzing the end of an op run?

[TSSN+]

Op model runs should end at 120 after that it’s pretty meh. 

[jayyy]

Hope we can get that Pacific jet to relax sooner rather than later. I'm worried it's going a lot longer than modeled to spin down and we just burn through peak climo just trying to reshuffle everything.

Burn through peak climo? So, now we’re talking about February in November? Folks know Early to mid december isn’t even winter yet right? Let alone “peak climo”


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[jayyy]

GFS with a clipper next week. Would be awesome if a clipper ends up breaking the snowless streak. 

Clippers still exist? I thought Alberta fell off the map or somethin’

[Weather Will]

Latest WB GEFS extended:

Peak of the coming warm up is the 7 day period ending on Dec. 8.  Then slide to below normal as we approach Christmas week. Christmas week still looks chilly.  Heaviest precip. Period is centered around the 7 day period ending around Christmas so a possible white holiday is still on the table.

[clskinsfan]

Pretty active pattern over the next 2 weeks and that clipper is interesting this morning on the GFS. Verbatim temps are meh. But at least we are gonna have a few chances before mid December this year. 

[ldub23]

The winter whip is  coming

 

 

[poolz1]

I thought the 06z gfs showed some promise for the Dec 5th period.  Instead of one bundled lead wave it has a follow up wave that digs and a taller ridge on the west coast.  A little more separation and maybe that run could have worked for us?  Sure would be nice to track something...anything.

[Chris78]

40 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Pretty active pattern over the next 2 weeks and that clipper is interesting this morning on the GFS. Verbatim temps are meh. But at least we are gonna have a few chances before mid December this year. 

Definitely looks interesting. If we have a shot at something it would be in that next Tuesday- Friday time frame.

[nw baltimore wx]

38 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Pretty active pattern over the next 2 weeks and that clipper is interesting this morning on the GFS. Verbatim temps are meh. But at least we are gonna have a few chances before mid December this year. 

1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

Definitely looks interesting. If we have a shot at something it would be in that next Tuesday- Friday time frame.

 

Both the euro and gfs have that deep trough for late next week, though maybe too sharp.  But plenty of time to smooth it out and get the timing right on some energy rounding the bend.

Or not.

[Ji]

1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

Pretty active pattern over the next 2 weeks and that clipper is interesting this morning on the GFS. Verbatim temps are meh. But at least we are gonna have a few chances before mid December this year. 

we are forecasted to have  +PNA, -NAO,-AO by Dec 6.  Its like having 4 highly paid first rounders on the DL line and being 30th in Defense in the league

[clskinsfan]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

we are forecasted to have  +PNA, -NAO,-AO by Dec 6.  Its like having 4 highly paid first rounders on the DL line and being 30th in Defense in the league

We know all about that though.....

[mappy]

Good morning -- 

Winter starts Friday (climatological seasons for the win), and our regular snow birds are coming back to roost for the winter. As such our threads are becoming more active, especially this one. 

In an effort to keep this thread readable, please do your best to post in the correct thread. We have plenty!

• Disc/Obs threads are for short-term discussion and observations.
• Mid/Long Range threads are for 5-7+ day model watching, discussing. 
• Banter threads are for banter, anything that you wouldn't want to read in a discussion thread, should go in banter.
• Panic Room thread is for canceling winter, melting down, whining, complaining, giving up all together. Save all that shit for that thread and Not. Here. 

We will hide posts that are off topic. If you see a post of yours disappear, then please try your post in another thread. 

I believe in all of you to do your part to help keep our threads on topic, readable, but also fun as we all track winter threats like the crazy people that we are. 

Finally -- if you are finding a poster to be annoying, please just put them on ignore. Our threads tend to fall into the shitter when we start attacking each other. Just put them on ignore and keep on scrolling. 

Thank you!

[stormtracker]

22 minutes ago, mappy said:

Good morning -- 

Winter starts Friday (climatological seasons for the win), and our regular snow birds are coming back to roost for the winter. As such our threads are becoming more active, especially this one. 

In an effort to keep this thread readable, please do your best to post in the correct thread. We have plenty!

• Disc/Obs threads are for short-term discussion and observations.
• Mid/Long Range threads are for 5-7+ day model watching, discussing. 
• Banter threads are for banter, anything that you wouldn't want to read in a discussion thread, should go in banter.
• Panic Room thread is for canceling winter, melting down, whining, complaining, giving up all together. Save all that shit for that thread and Not. Here. 

We will hide posts that are off topic. If you see a post of yours disappear, then please try your post in another thread. 

I believe in all of you to do your part to help keep our threads on topic, readable, but also fun as we all track winter threats like the crazy people that we are. 

Finally -- if you are finding a poster to be annoying, please just put them on ignore. Our threads tend to fall into the shitter when we start attacking each other. Just put them on ignore and keep on scrolling. 

Thank you!

Seconded.

And while we're at it, yall remember when posting a model post 200 hours was scorned upon?  Remember how the community would collectively rain hell on a poster who did that?  It's not against the rules and I wouldn't dare make it so, but damn yall.  Rising and falling with a 270 hour run of the GFS?  1100hr model runs?  Melting down and fretting about not getting snow on what is basically November 35th?   I dunno man.  

[psuhoffman]

I am still mostly optimistic things are on track...

At this early stage by far the most important thing IMO is seeing a favorable AO.  IMO the most likely way this season fails is if we don't get cooperation in that regard.  It's really difficult to have a -AO nino and totally fail.  Early season blocking during a nino is also a good sign of a -AO winter.  So right now the most important thing is that we are seeing signs the high latitudes should be cooperative this year.  

On the less optimistic side, it is frustrating that we continue to see a reality where we need everything to be damn near perfect for it to be cold enough to snow.  Even when things are more good than bad it seems its just not even close.   Yea the pacific isnt good, but its not a -5PNA or anything...a really strong blocking regime SHOULD historically be able to help with a mediocre to slightly bad pacific.  But lately I see a lot of "well this or that one thing isnt totally perfect so of course we have no shot".  How often is EVERYTHING going to be 100% perfect?  Its not supposed to be that hard.  ANd yes its early, but we have had years where a significant portion of our snow came in December.  We don't always get to pick when the pattern gets right.  

Also, regarding the current cold right now...its useless and irrelevant to a "is it cold enough to snow".  It doesn't matter if it gets cold on the NW flow behind a cold front or storm.  Of course it can get cold in that scenario.  But other than some flurries or maybe a clipper if we get lucky that is not relevant to our chances of getting an actual snowstorm.  We need a pattern where cold can settle in with a depth that can resist warming during the return flow ahead of the next wave for it to actually be useful.  

Those last 2 factors aside it's too early to panic yet.  Yes its ok to be frustrated given the evidence piling up the last few years... it's natural to have a "here we go again" feeling...but its REALLY EARLY and the pattern is more favorable than its been overall going into the last few winters... I am giving it a few more weeks before I start to actually worry too much.  

[brooklynwx99]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I am still mostly optimistic things are on track...

At this early stage by far the most important thing IMO is seeing a favorable AO.  IMO the most likely way this season fails is if we don't get cooperation in that regard.  It's really difficult to have a -AO nino and totally fail.  Early season blocking during a nino is also a good sign of a -AO winter.  So right now the most important thing is that we are seeing signs the high latitudes should be cooperative this year.  

On the less optimistic side, it is frustrating that we continue to see a reality where we need everything to be damn near perfect for it to be cold enough to snow.  Even when things are more good than bad it seems its just not even close.   Yea the pacific isnt good, but its not a -5PNA or anything...a really strong blocking regime SHOULD historically be able to help with a mediocre to slightly bad pacific.  But lately I see a lot of "well this or that one thing isnt totally perfect so of course we have no shot".  How often is EVERYTHING going to be 100% perfect?  Its not supposed to be that hard.  ANd yes its early, but we have had years where a significant portion of our snow came in December.  We don't always get to pick when the pattern gets right.  

Also, regarding the current cold right now...its useless and irrelevant to a "is it cold enough to snow".  It doesn't matter if it gets cold on the NW flow behind a cold front or storm.  Of course it can get cold in that scenario.  But other than some flurries or maybe a clipper if we get lucky that is not relevant to our chances of getting an actual snowstorm.  We need a pattern where cold can settle in with a depth that can resist warming during the return flow ahead of the next wave for it to actually be useful.  

Those last 2 factors aside it's too early to panic yet.  Yes its ok to be frustrated given the evidence piling up the last few years... it's natural to have a "here we go again" feeling...but its REALLY EARLY and the pattern is more favorable than its been overall going into the last few winters... I am giving it a few more weeks before I start to actually worry too much.  

it's too early for anything but an ideal pattern. hell, it doesn't even snow up here in coastal NJ until the 15th or so, let alone near you guys. the last couple weeks is a different story, but we have no idea how those weeks are going to shake out

[psuhoffman]

17 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

it's too early for anything but an ideal pattern. hell, it doesn't even snow up here in coastal NJ until the 15th or so, let alone near you guys. the last couple weeks is a different story, but we have no idea how those weeks are going to shake out

That has been true the last 15 years or so...the only way we have ever had snow before January recently is if the pacific is pretty much perfect.  Almost every snow before January lately has come from a monster EPA/PNA combo ridge that floods a direct discharge of arctic air into the eastern US.  But going back further that was not true.  Here is an example of a major mid November snow from a convoluted mediocre pattern.  And I could pull up dozens of examples of November and early December snows from the past where the pacific was not perfect.  So in the recent past you are correct...my point is it wasn't always impossible to get snow early without a perfect pacific.  

[Eskimo Joe]

This is *exactly* what we need to see for any chance at snow this winter. A stout western ridge in Canada and split flow undercutting everything over Baja. Until this shows up, we're cooked. Hopefully we can get some Atlantic blocking to really lock everything in place.

 

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

4 hours ago, ldub23 said:

The winter whip is  coming

 

 

Mild Dec? I'm sorry, I'm not really seeing it. Any 'warmth' looks muted and transient at best thru 1st half of Dec. Cold enough for snow? Perhaps we sneak our way into something early, but we are still really premature in the season and outside of good climo for many. Becoming increasingly confident of a very active pattern coming and if these arctic intrusions are foreshadowing what's to come could be a fun ride.

[Ji]

the euro tries to give us some light wintry mix twice next week. where is the southern branch??

[North Balti Zen]

That's the clipper that various model runs have hinted at. I think there is no southern stream on this potential system because...it's a throwback clipper? 

Would be nice if that is a thing so we can get on the board.

[Ji]

1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said:

That's the clipper that various model runs have hinted at. I think there is no southern stream on this potential system because...it's a throwback clipper? 

Would be nice if that is a thing so we can get on the board.

i know but it would be nice to have a nino southern stream with cold air for once

[North Balti Zen]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

i know but it would be nice to have a nino southern stream with cold air for once

I get it but...it has been a LONG time since we've had an actual clipper and those used to be a way to get some small scores. Given I was literally .2 last year in northern maryland, it would be nice to see actual accumulating snow from any kind of system.  

[Eskimo Joe]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

i know but it would be nice to have a nino southern stream with cold air for once

Naw bro let's just get on the board. So long as it snows, I don't care if it comes from the southern or northern jet

[Maestrobjwa]

16 minutes ago, Ji said:

the euro tries to give us some light wintry mix twice next week. where is the southern branch??

Still early...also, I answered your pm.

[Maestrobjwa]

4 hours ago, mappy said:

Good morning -- 

Winter starts Friday (climatological seasons for the win), and our regular snow birds are coming back to roost for the winter. As such our threads are becoming more active, especially this one. 

In an effort to keep this thread readable, please do your best to post in the correct thread. We have plenty!

• Disc/Obs threads are for short-term discussion and observations.
• Mid/Long Range threads are for 5-7+ day model watching, discussing. 
• Banter threads are for banter, anything that you wouldn't want to read in a discussion thread, should go in banter.
• Panic Room thread is for canceling winter, melting down, whining, complaining, giving up all together. Save all that shit for that thread and Not. Here. 

We will hide posts that are off topic. If you see a post of yours disappear, then please try your post in another thread. 

I believe in all of you to do your part to help keep our threads on topic, readable, but also fun as we all track winter threats like the crazy people that we are. 

Finally -- if you are finding a poster to be annoying, please just put them on ignore. Our threads tend to fall into the shitter when we start attacking each other. Just put them on ignore and keep on scrolling. 

Thank you!

If I may...Do you think it would be helpful to pin this in a closed thread by itself at the top a la some other subforum notices I've seen on here? Feels like we may need to it to slap people in the face in case they forget...like in a week, lol

[Stormchaserchuck1]

12z Euro has 1" of snow here Dec 5th. I was talking about the time period earlier as a good +pna/-nao opportunity, it looks like the wavelengths in today's runs are more to match the upper latitude pattern.