December Mid/Long Range Discussion

[Kevin Reilly]

1 hour ago, Chris78 said:

The icon did take my snow away at 18z

It's okay no worries 18z Model runs are notorious for being drier and further east and southeast with the storm development. 

[psuhoffman]

Another good euro weekly run if we’re keeping score. Just worth noting yesterdays flip back to a -NAO wasn’t a one off fluke. 

[stormy]

A few take away's before the event.  An almost classic storm track with minor variations. We would be measuring snow in feet if we had a source of cold air for the storm to tap into. Where is that 1040 high over southeast Quebec?

I'm happy because 24 inches of snow means too much cleanup labor and the 2 inches of rain over 24 hours will be wonderful for the continuing severe drought according to the drought monitor updated this morning.

[Chris78]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Another good euro weekly run if we’re keeping score. Just worth noting yesterdays flip back to a -NAO wasn’t a one off fluke. 

If we can't get snow with that look it's time to find a new hobby

[Superstorm]

If we can't get snow with that look it's time to find a new hobby

Perfect look.


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[Ralph Wiggum]

21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Another good euro weekly run if we’re keeping score. Just worth noting yesterdays flip back to a -NAO wasn’t a one off fluke. 

Great! The winky mcwinkerson pattern. That's usually a decent performer iirc. 

[Maestrobjwa]

18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Another good euro weekly run if we’re keeping score. Just worth noting yesterdays flip back to a -NAO wasn’t a one off fluke. 

Sure hope they're right. I would hate for something like a +NAO all winter to mess this up...because not only would it suck for this year, we still wouldn't know whether a Niño still works since we could point to that as a culprit. Like you said earlier...hopefully we won't have to do that analysis, lol

[AtlanticWx]

7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Sure hope they're right. I would hate for something like a +NAO all winter to mess this up...because not only would it suck for this year, we still wouldn't know whether a Niño still works since we could point to that as a culprit. Like you said earlier...hopefully we won't have to do that analysis, lol

i really doubt we get more than transient +NAO periods like this one bc of how persistent the -NAO has been since the end of last winter and the brewing possible SSW

[clskinsfan]

2 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

as I try to learn during a relatively quiet period - for our area, we'd want this "vort max(?)" closer to the NC/VA border, correct? and ideally tilted negatively instead of positively?

Thing is it doesnt really matter. Because there is no cold air for it to pull down anyways. It is all trapped on the other side of the hemisphere. Seems to be the new norm. 

[clskinsfan]

3 hours ago, Ji said:

not a debbie downer but the Euro season models had December by far as the stormiest month. Jan and Feb were nowhere near as precip heavy as December so we cant be expecting noreasters evert weekend once the cold arrives. in 2009--we had to wait from Dec 19 to Jan 30 for a snow event

Euro seasonal or not. Look at the map of the Pacific. It is LOADED with storms. We will have our chances. 

[NorthArlington101]

Thing is it doesnt really matter. Because there is no cold air for it to pull down anyways. It is all trapped on the other side of the hemisphere. Seems to be the new norm. 

The follow up wave has enough cold to pull something off, but I take your larger point.

[Jebman]

33 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Euro seasonal or not. Look at the map of the Pacific. It is LOADED with storms. We will have our chances. 

All I ask, is if we in TX can please have some of those storms. We need rain SO BAD.

I would pay more taxes for more rain.

[clskinsfan]

3 minutes ago, Jebman said:

All I ask, is if we in TX can please have some of those storms. We need rain SO BAD.

I would pay more taxes for more rain.

We actually need you to get the storms there. We need that active southern stream. 

[Jebman]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

We actually need you to get the storms there. We need that active southern stream. 

Latest storm missed to the south, hit Mexico.

[clskinsfan]

5 minutes ago, Jebman said:

Latest storm missed to the south, hit Mexico.

That can work for us too.

[osfan24]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Except for the 3 blizzards many still got more snow that winter than like 5 of the last 7!  There was a 3-5” snow for the western burbs Dec 5.  A coating late Dec. 1-3 early Jan.  4-7” late Jan. 3-5” early Feb. 1-3” in MD late Feb.  And that’s ignoring the ridiculousness of “except for 3 blizzards” but yes I know you’re mostly kidding. 

Yeah I definitely remember that the period leading up to the back-to-back blizzards had a few overperformers that dropped some nice snow on us. It was pretty active.

[WesternFringe]

1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

Thing is it doesnt really matter. Because there is no cold air for it to pull down anyways. It is all trapped on the other side of the hemisphere. Seems to be the new norm. 

Wrong.  If we get a dynamic enough 850 pass, it will pull cold air from aloft and north and we will have ourselves some snow

[clskinsfan]

15 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

it will pull cold air from aloft and north

From where? This isnt January or early February where we are cold. There is no cold air on this side of the Hemisphere.And I wonder why????

[Heisy]

From where? This isnt January or early February where we are cold. There is no cold air on this side of the Hemisphere.And I wonder why????

This is a polar jet short wave , if it closed off in a good spot it would be fine for snow and plenty cold. It’s why we’ve seen some model runs actually show snow from the second shortwave. The problem is getting it to close off in an ideal spot. Long shot


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[Daniel Boone]

20 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

From where? This isnt January or early February where we are cold. There is no cold air on this side of the Hemisphere.And I wonder why????

Eastern Canada has enough if pulled down by a strong enough system. 

[brooklynwx99]

nice seeing a deep SE trough showing up on ENS for the end of the month 

[Daniel Boone]

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

This is a polar jet short wave , if it closed off in a good spot it would be fine for snow and plenty cold. It’s why we’ve seen some model runs actually show snow from the second shortwave. The problem is getting it to close off in an ideal spot. Long shot


.

Yeah, agree. Main System moving up the Coast will be tough until further North where it draws in colder air. Maybe highest elevations of the Smokies and mid App chain can score from it as well. 

[87storms]

Yeah I definitely remember that the period leading up to the back-to-back blizzards had a few overperformers that dropped some nice snow on us. It was pretty active.

Jan 30, 2010 was a sneak attack. It was forecast to be further south, but the northern edge ended up producing several inches. The 2nd storm in Feb 2010, aka the bowling ball vort, made this area look like Siberia.

[Maestrobjwa]

2 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

Thing is it doesnt really matter. Because there is no cold air for it to pull down anyways. It is all trapped on the other side of the hemisphere. Seems to be the new norm. 

Anybody care to weigh in on why we've been seeing this more often lately?

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Anybody care to weigh in on why we've been seeing this more often lately?

Pacific jet overwhelms us here. It's all zonal flow and nothing can dig.

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Anybody care to weigh in on why we've been seeing this more often lately?

PSU said something a couple of pages back about it. We get flooded with PAC air constantly now. We will see over the next couple of months if ENSO means anything anymore. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

We're in a bad decadal cycle in the Pacific (last 25 years):

https://ibb.co/nkdRM0v

And a higher frequency of La Nina 

https://ibb.co/GnzTZ0y

La Nina is up on El Nino 15-9 since we went +AMO in 1995. 

[clskinsfan]

Screw it. the ICON snows me for 15 minutes. I am all in. 

[Deck Pic]

Anyway re winter.  I don’t think it’s worth chasing the perfect pattern in mid December in a nino.   We’ll get snow in suboptimal patterns this winter.  Probably a couple events that don’t really show up until 72-96 hours out. 

[jayyy]

Really not that gonna be that warm leading up to xmas… at all..