December Mid/Long Range Discussion

[clskinsfan]

3 minutes ago, Jebman said:

All I ask, is if we in TX can please have some of those storms. We need rain SO BAD.

I would pay more taxes for more rain.

We actually need you to get the storms there. We need that active southern stream. 

[Jebman]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

We actually need you to get the storms there. We need that active southern stream. 

Latest storm missed to the south, hit Mexico.

[clskinsfan]

5 minutes ago, Jebman said:

Latest storm missed to the south, hit Mexico.

That can work for us too.

[osfan24]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Except for the 3 blizzards many still got more snow that winter than like 5 of the last 7!  There was a 3-5” snow for the western burbs Dec 5.  A coating late Dec. 1-3 early Jan.  4-7” late Jan. 3-5” early Feb. 1-3” in MD late Feb.  And that’s ignoring the ridiculousness of “except for 3 blizzards” but yes I know you’re mostly kidding. 

Yeah I definitely remember that the period leading up to the back-to-back blizzards had a few overperformers that dropped some nice snow on us. It was pretty active.

[WesternFringe]

1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

Thing is it doesnt really matter. Because there is no cold air for it to pull down anyways. It is all trapped on the other side of the hemisphere. Seems to be the new norm. 

Wrong.  If we get a dynamic enough 850 pass, it will pull cold air from aloft and north and we will have ourselves some snow

[clskinsfan]

15 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

it will pull cold air from aloft and north

From where? This isnt January or early February where we are cold. There is no cold air on this side of the Hemisphere.And I wonder why????

[Heisy]

From where? This isnt January or early February where we are cold. There is no cold air on this side of the Hemisphere.And I wonder why????

This is a polar jet short wave , if it closed off in a good spot it would be fine for snow and plenty cold. It’s why we’ve seen some model runs actually show snow from the second shortwave. The problem is getting it to close off in an ideal spot. Long shot


.

[Daniel Boone]

20 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

From where? This isnt January or early February where we are cold. There is no cold air on this side of the Hemisphere.And I wonder why????

Eastern Canada has enough if pulled down by a strong enough system. 

[brooklynwx99]

nice seeing a deep SE trough showing up on ENS for the end of the month 

[Daniel Boone]

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

This is a polar jet short wave , if it closed off in a good spot it would be fine for snow and plenty cold. It’s why we’ve seen some model runs actually show snow from the second shortwave. The problem is getting it to close off in an ideal spot. Long shot


.

Yeah, agree. Main System moving up the Coast will be tough until further North where it draws in colder air. Maybe highest elevations of the Smokies and mid App chain can score from it as well. 

[87storms]

Yeah I definitely remember that the period leading up to the back-to-back blizzards had a few overperformers that dropped some nice snow on us. It was pretty active.

Jan 30, 2010 was a sneak attack. It was forecast to be further south, but the northern edge ended up producing several inches. The 2nd storm in Feb 2010, aka the bowling ball vort, made this area look like Siberia.

[Maestrobjwa]

2 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

Thing is it doesnt really matter. Because there is no cold air for it to pull down anyways. It is all trapped on the other side of the hemisphere. Seems to be the new norm. 

Anybody care to weigh in on why we've been seeing this more often lately?

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Anybody care to weigh in on why we've been seeing this more often lately?

Pacific jet overwhelms us here. It's all zonal flow and nothing can dig.

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Anybody care to weigh in on why we've been seeing this more often lately?

PSU said something a couple of pages back about it. We get flooded with PAC air constantly now. We will see over the next couple of months if ENSO means anything anymore. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

We're in a bad decadal cycle in the Pacific (last 25 years):

https://ibb.co/nkdRM0v

And a higher frequency of La Nina 

https://ibb.co/GnzTZ0y

La Nina is up on El Nino 15-9 since we went +AMO in 1995. 

[clskinsfan]

Screw it. the ICON snows me for 15 minutes. I am all in. 

[jayyy]

Really not that gonna be that warm leading up to xmas… at all..

[cbmclean]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

We're in a bad decadal cycle in the Pacific (last 25 years):

https://ibb.co/nkdRM0v

And a higher frequency of La Nina 

https://ibb.co/GnzTZ0y

La Nina is up on El Nino 15-9 since we went +AMO in 1995. 

I thought El Nino vs La Nina was modulated by the PDO as opposed to the AMO.

[cbmclean]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Anybody care to weigh in on why we've been seeing this more often lately?

The @psuhoffman lending library has many volumes you could check out on this topic, but in your heart of hearts, you know the answer to this question already

[Maestrobjwa]

29 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

The @psuhoffman lending library has many volumes you could check out on this topic, but in your heart of hearts, you know the answer to this question already

I actually wasn't sure it had something to do with that or not. I keep seeing folks say the artic air is "kicked" or "trapped" on the other side of the globe...Now from a layman perspective, I thought that implied there was another mechanism that did that. So you're saying all the pac air kicks the colder air to the other side of the hemisphere, or?

And from that same perspective...I also don't get how "that" problem means warm or our side of the hemisphere but still cold there. May be a dumb question, but remember...non-scientifically oriented poster here. Sometimes we need a "for dummies" explanation of these things!

[brooklynwx99]

first larger storm signal this year? looks potent 

[jayyy]

first larger storm signal this year? looks potent 

Man, today was a great day for LR ensembles. Certainly a workable pattern being depicted by the Euro, GEFS, etc.. with some differences in the exact evolution of the pattern. A very active STJ and the arrival of colder air / blocking = BOOM. Just a matter of having a smidge more patience for the Atlantic and NAO to improve. We’ve seen coastal storm after coastal storm make their way up the coastline in 2023. Fully expecting more of the same this winter.

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z EPS has it too....

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z EPS has it too....

EPS has a better(colder) look for that window than the GEFS/GEPS, with a more amplified ridge shifted further west vs a flattish central Canada ridge.

[nj2va]

Nice to see Hs and Ls in the right place for that window on the 6z GFS OP.

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GFS, late weekend storm did tick east this run with heaviest rain and wind.

[Terpeast]

8 hours ago, jayyy said:

Really not that gonna be that warm leading up to xmas… at all..

Yeah I was thinking the same. Not like Dec 2015 at all. 

[Chris78]

Not going to post maps lol but the OP gfs shows potential around the same time the Esembles are honking. 

It might get interesting after Christmas.

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Not going to post maps lol but the OP gfs shows potential around the same time the Esembles are honking. 

It might get interesting after Christmas.

Yeah a few runs in a row now. A lot would have to go right timing wise with no help in the NA, esp for the lowlands, but something to keep an eye on.

[dallen7908]

Yes, the PNA is positive during the last week of December but the NAO also remains positive.   On the positive side, approximately 25% of the EPS and GEFS members show a neutral or slightly negative NAO during the last portion of the last week of December.  I can't remember the last time there was anything to track during the December 27 - January 1st period.   Hopefully, the ensemble 500 means are on to something.