December Mid/Long Range Discussion

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

The icon did take my snow away at 18z

A couple issues with that trailing shortwave- it's more of a vorticity lobe than a sharp shortwave, and there is a lack of moisture feeding in ahead of it with dry air also advecting in from the NW. Maybe some snow/rain showers but an organized storm looks like an outside chance imo.

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Run-over-run change... pretty clearly a step toward a better vort pass. Does that lead to any real outcome? Someone smarter can decide

not yet, but still a pretty big shift nonetheless 

[NorthArlington101]

as I try to learn during a relatively quiet period - for our area, we'd want this "vort max(?)" closer to the NC/VA border, correct? and ideally tilted negatively instead of positively?

[Chris78]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

A couple issues with that trailing shortwave- it's more of a vorticity lobe than a sharp shortwave, and there is a lack of moisture feeding in ahead of it with dry air also advecting in from the NW. Maybe some snow/rain showers but an organized storm looks like an outside chance imo.

It'd be a long shot. Especially with no blocking.

[Chris78]

Pretty rare to have a storm that strong in Goergia/South Carolina. 

Sub 985 at the Latitude is impressive. 

[87storms]

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

as I try to learn during a relatively quiet period - for our area, we'd want this "vort max(?)" closer to the NC/VA border, correct? and ideally tilted negatively instead of positively?

I don't like the trajectory of that vort at all.  We need it digging further west imo.  Looks like nothing more than a nw flow/snow shower-y type of system.

On the bright side, it appears we may be heading towards a pattern that produces signficant storms that are more spaced out instead of the constant barrage of vorts riding the northern US that typically bring nothing more than clouds and a breeze.

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

It'd be a long shot. Especially with no blocking.

The bigger problem is it's too close on the heels of our juicy rainstorm. Notice there isn't any notable surface low development on the GFS. It would take a big dig by a sharp shortwave to get it done.

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GFS rain blizzard incoming....

 

[WxUSAF]

11 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

as I try to learn during a relatively quiet period - for our area, we'd want this "vort max(?)" closer to the NC/VA border, correct? and ideally tilted negatively instead of positively?

Yes and yes ideally 

[aldie 22]

I did have thunder last week just saying 

[Chris78]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GFS rain blizzard incoming....

 

It's a freaking monster of a miller A.

Can you imagine a 1040 MB high pressure  sitting to our NW with temps in the low 20s with that storm attacking from the south lol

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

32 minutes ago, Ji said:

1-3 between Dec 19 and Jan 30 is snowless. Except for the 3 blizzards that winter sucked ass lol

They melted too fast. 02-03 was a much better Winter.  I would trade off that big High pressure over Greenland lately.. 

[Weather Will]

1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

It's a freaking monster of a miller A.

Can you imagine a 1040 MB high pressure  sitting to our NW with temps in the low 20s with that storm attacking from the south lol

 

That will be our January 20 version!!!

[Ji]

3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

That will be our January 20 version!!!

for the carolinas....we will be high and dry

[psuhoffman]

40 minutes ago, Ji said:

1-3 between Dec 19 and Jan 30 is snowless. Except for the 3 blizzards that winter sucked ass lol

Except for the 3 blizzards many still got more snow that winter than like 5 of the last 7!  There was a 3-5” snow for the western burbs Dec 5.  A coating late Dec. 1-3 early Jan.  4-7” late Jan. 3-5” early Feb. 1-3” in MD late Feb.  And that’s ignoring the ridiculousness of “except for 3 blizzards” but yes I know you’re mostly kidding. 

[Jersey Andrew]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Except for the 3 blizzards many still got more snow that winter than like 5 of the last 7!  There was a 3-5” snow for the western burbs Dec 5.  A coating late Dec. 1-3 early Jan.  4-7” late Jan. 3-5” early Feb. 1-3” in MD late Feb.  And that’s ignoring the ridiculousness of “except for 3 blizzards” but yes I know you’re mostly kidding. 

I’m fearful of a ‘97-98 scenario where there is no cold air in the DC area. Maybe that PV split delivers in January but even Judah Cohen is starting to hedge his bets.

[WinterWxLuvr]

57 minutes ago, stormy said:

The ICON loses interest

Shocking development 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

The +PNA correlates with cold in January, but not so much December

Dec +PNA:

https://ibb.co/tbtHzyR

https://ibb.co/MC130Pk

Jan +PNA:

https://ibb.co/ZGQMXy0

https://ibb.co/cw1tPVc

0.1 to 0.5 difference. Models have us going +PNA at hr204-384+ but we are more -PNA before hr204. El Nino is the mechanism behind potential +PNA, and at +2.0c, that looks to still be here in January. 

[Kevin Reilly]

1 hour ago, Chris78 said:

The icon did take my snow away at 18z

It's okay no worries 18z Model runs are notorious for being drier and further east and southeast with the storm development. 

[psuhoffman]

Another good euro weekly run if we’re keeping score. Just worth noting yesterdays flip back to a -NAO wasn’t a one off fluke. 

[stormy]

A few take away's before the event.  An almost classic storm track with minor variations. We would be measuring snow in feet if we had a source of cold air for the storm to tap into. Where is that 1040 high over southeast Quebec?

I'm happy because 24 inches of snow means too much cleanup labor and the 2 inches of rain over 24 hours will be wonderful for the continuing severe drought according to the drought monitor updated this morning.

[Chris78]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Another good euro weekly run if we’re keeping score. Just worth noting yesterdays flip back to a -NAO wasn’t a one off fluke. 

If we can't get snow with that look it's time to find a new hobby

[Superstorm]

If we can't get snow with that look it's time to find a new hobby

Perfect look.


.

[Ralph Wiggum]

21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Another good euro weekly run if we’re keeping score. Just worth noting yesterdays flip back to a -NAO wasn’t a one off fluke. 

Great! The winky mcwinkerson pattern. That's usually a decent performer iirc. 

[Maestrobjwa]

18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Another good euro weekly run if we’re keeping score. Just worth noting yesterdays flip back to a -NAO wasn’t a one off fluke. 

Sure hope they're right. I would hate for something like a +NAO all winter to mess this up...because not only would it suck for this year, we still wouldn't know whether a Niño still works since we could point to that as a culprit. Like you said earlier...hopefully we won't have to do that analysis, lol

[AtlanticWx]

7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Sure hope they're right. I would hate for something like a +NAO all winter to mess this up...because not only would it suck for this year, we still wouldn't know whether a Niño still works since we could point to that as a culprit. Like you said earlier...hopefully we won't have to do that analysis, lol

i really doubt we get more than transient +NAO periods like this one bc of how persistent the -NAO has been since the end of last winter and the brewing possible SSW

[clskinsfan]

2 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

as I try to learn during a relatively quiet period - for our area, we'd want this "vort max(?)" closer to the NC/VA border, correct? and ideally tilted negatively instead of positively?

Thing is it doesnt really matter. Because there is no cold air for it to pull down anyways. It is all trapped on the other side of the hemisphere. Seems to be the new norm. 

[clskinsfan]

3 hours ago, Ji said:

not a debbie downer but the Euro season models had December by far as the stormiest month. Jan and Feb were nowhere near as precip heavy as December so we cant be expecting noreasters evert weekend once the cold arrives. in 2009--we had to wait from Dec 19 to Jan 30 for a snow event

Euro seasonal or not. Look at the map of the Pacific. It is LOADED with storms. We will have our chances. 

[NorthArlington101]

Thing is it doesnt really matter. Because there is no cold air for it to pull down anyways. It is all trapped on the other side of the hemisphere. Seems to be the new norm. 

The follow up wave has enough cold to pull something off, but I take your larger point.

[Jebman]

33 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Euro seasonal or not. Look at the map of the Pacific. It is LOADED with storms. We will have our chances. 

All I ask, is if we in TX can please have some of those storms. We need rain SO BAD.

I would pay more taxes for more rain.