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December Mid/Long Range Discussion

WxUSAF

By WxUSAF,
in Mid Atlantic

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Bob Chill
Bob Chill

No matter how long of a break you take from here, nothing changes. Not.one.thing. 

mappy
mappy

Good morning --  Winter starts Friday (climatological seasons for the win), and our regular snow birds are coming back to roost for the winter. As such our threads are becoming more active, espec

stormtracker
stormtracker

Seconded. And while we're at it, yall remember when posting a model post 200 hours was scorned upon?  Remember how the community would collectively rain hell on a poster who did that?  It's not a

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Ji

Ji

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

 

Threading the needle implies that there is some level of cold air in place.  This is just not that case with the current pattern.

we are not threading the needle. This is Kocin Noreaster without the snow

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TSG

TSG

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Euro makes me want to cry. Absolutely perfect storm track for the Shenandoah valley. And its a rain storm. Lets hope the whole atmospheric memory thing is real. Storms have been climbing the coast for months at this point. Give me that track in mid January and we get blitzed.

This is how I feel right now. Not sure which way temps are going to play out the rest of winter, but with this many storms hugging the coast the past few months, it's hard for me to imagine we don't get a flush hit at least once before April.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this will do

also that’s also the whole thing about Canada torching. the +20F air up there is like -4F here

IMG_3706.thumb.png.cff2f3f4e584879597c2b46a89bbc931.pngIMG_3707.thumb.png.e6c8fa19dc030c96b403ec7750c640f2.png

That’s why getting the TPV out of the Baffin area is so important. We don’t need Canada to be “cold” but we do need to get enough northern flow in eastern Canada to prevent it from being 100% maritime air and to get some cold transported into our area.  The TPV is far enough northeast there to allow the flow to turn NW behind it.  Still not ideal but 1000 times better than where it is now. 

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, TSG said:

This is how I feel right now. Not sure which way temps are going to play out the rest of winter, but with this many storms hugging the coast the past few months, it's hard for me to imagine we don't get a flush hit at least once before April.

I'm almost sure getting moisture won't be an issue this year, lol This is why I feel like this winter is either gonna be above average or a complete ratter. If something cold-ruining were to lock in (let's hope not), then it'll be hard to get anything it seems...But all it takes is for the cold to be there even a few times to result in the many AN snowfall predictions to come true.

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stormy

stormy

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

 

Hey! I'm back in town!!

I posted that so quick without reviewing thread activity because I know how much you crave snow. And, I was in a hurry for another appointment.

This is a long shot at maybe 20%.  The ECM and GEM also bring the spoke of energy down but are more progressive to the coast without surface lp developing.

The GFS says, nada, I'm not digging that deep.  We''ll  see at 6 pm.

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Ji

Ji

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I'm almost sure getting moisture won't be an issue this year, lol This is why I feel like this winter is either gonna be above average or a complete ratter. If something cold-ruining were to lock in (let's hope not), then it'll be hard to get anything it seems...But all it takes is for the cold to be there even a few times to result in the many AN snowfall predictions to come true.

not a debbie downer but the Euro season models had December by far as the stormiest month. Jan and Feb were nowhere near as precip heavy as December so we cant be expecting noreasters evert weekend once the cold arrives. in 2009--we had to wait from Dec 19 to Jan 30 for a snow event

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midatlanticweather

midatlanticweather

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Ji said:

not a debbie downer but the Euro season models had December by far as the stormiest month. Jan and Feb were nowhere near as precip heavy as December so we cant be expecting noreasters evert weekend once the cold arrives. in 2009--we had to wait from Dec 19 to Jan 30 for a snow event

Ya.. looking at the long-range predictions, especially the Middle part of the Mid-Atlantic was showing near to below normal precipitation. The heavier stuff was southern VA and south or up in the NE. We do not need above normal precip to get big snows though. We just need the good timing when we get a storm and a more favorable setup to make the luck we always need more possible 

 

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

Well LWX in their afternoon AFD have taken notice  

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A low pressure system is expected to move up the East Coast and
bring moderate to heavy rain to our region Sunday and Sunday
night. Rain amounts could average an inch or two with isolated
higher amounts. Temperatures will reach the middle to upper 40s
west of the Blue Ridge with 50s to the east of Blue Ridge.

As the primary low moves north along the East Coast Monday and
Monday night, a secondary low could develop and follow the first low
pressure system. This particular low pressure could bring a chance
for snow showers to much of our region Monday night into Tuesday.
Highs Monday mainly in the lower to middle 50s with highs Tuesday in
the lower 40s with mainly 30s in the mountains.

High pressure will bring a period of drier and colder air to the
region Wednesday. Highs again on Wednesday could stay in the 40s
across the region with 30s in the mountains.
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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, Ji said:

not a debbie downer but the Euro season models had December by far as the stormiest month. Jan and Feb were nowhere near as precip heavy as December so we cant be expecting noreasters evert weekend once the cold arrives. in 2009--we had to wait from Dec 19 to Jan 30 for a snow event

Most of the area got a coating just before new years and 1-3” around Jan 8th. It’s wasn’t as snowless as you make it you were just getting frustrated because the pattern had way more potential and we were hecs hunting. 

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HighStakes

HighStakes

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

If we somehow get snowed on again next week we may have something cooking this winter.  Pretty rough  pattern overall so maybe we have some WDI going on.

Wait a minute. You must not have heard. It's a "thread the needle" type deal. You would be crazy to think it could snow twice in December almost within a week. December is the new September. :lol:

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Ji

Ji

Posted
Posted
Most of the area got a coating just before new years and 1-3” around Jan 8th. It’s wasn’t as snowless as you make it you were just getting frustrated because the pattern had way more potential and we were hecs hunting. 

1-3 between Dec 19 and Jan 30 is snowless. Except for the 3 blizzards that winter sucked ass lol
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NorthArlington101

NorthArlington101

Posted
Posted
Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

GFS is more EURO-like through hr93. Fairly big shift, though worth noting of course the EURO didn't give us a fantastic outcome anyway

Run-over-run change... pretty clearly a step toward a better vort pass. Does that lead to any real outcome? Someone smarter can decide

1702987200-qmel1K6mFOU.png

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