December Mid/Long Range Discussion

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

the better looks on the ensembles towards the end of the month are painfully slow

it's probably going to be that way, but it'll get there

[paulythegun]

Benny Hill Music (6z gfs, hours 132-270)

[CAPE]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

That’s definitely a first step. But so long as the nao stays positive the flow to our north will be west to east and pac maritime air will dominate. The pac trough would have to retro really far for that equation to work, see 2003 and 2015 for what that would look like. But I don’t think we’re likely to get that. Ultimately until the nao goes negative we’re going to struggle with temps and be rooting for a lot of convoluted things to go right to overcome very marginal at best thermals. 

The extended products still suggest the NE PAC trough retros back over the Aleutians with an EPO ridge for early Jan, but they have been doing that for awhile now. There are also hints of improvement in the NA. My guess is we will see general improvement in the Pacific over the next couple weeks, and increasing chances of -NAO episodes mid Jan forward.

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The extended products still suggest the NE PAC trough retros back over the Aleutians with an EPO ridge for early Jan, but they have been doing that for awhile now. There are also hints of improvement in the NA. My guess is we will see general improvement in the Pacific over the next couple weeks, and increasing chances of -NAO episodes mid Jan forward.

It's also possible we might get the Pacific longwave pattern to retrograde just enough that a more neutral Atlantic could work also.  It's a scale, the more help we get on one side the less we need on the other.  Historically the easiest way to make this whole thing work though is if we can get a true -NAO.  That would make this whole thing a lot simpler.  But we do need the TPV to get away from Baffin.  Sitting there is going to create a strong west to east flow under it and blast maritime air across.  

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

It's also possible we might get the Pacific longwave pattern to retrograde just enough that a more neutral Atlantic could work also.  It's a scale, the more help we get on one side the less we need on the other.  Historically the easiest way to make this whole thing work though is if we can get a true -NAO.  That would make this whole thing a lot simpler.  But we do need the TPV to get away from Baffin.  Sitting there is going to create a strong west to east flow under it and blast maritime air across.  

7 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The extended products still suggest the NE PAC trough retros back over the Aleutians with an EPO ridge for early Jan, but they have been doing that for awhile now. There are also hints of improvement in the NA. My guess is we will see general improvement in the Pacific over the next couple weeks, and increasing chances of -NAO episodes mid Jan forward.

overall I think the main takeaway is that it is so much easier to get a favorable pattern than it is during a Nina, lemme tell you

[brooklynwx99]

also the ICON goes absolutely ballistic over you guys. if the NS vort really is that strong then it's possible but there's a big grain of salt right now

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

also the ICON goes absolutely ballistic over you guys. if the NS vort really is that strong then it's possible but there's a big grain of salt right now

As a handful of others have pointed out, a handful of ens members across CMC/GFS/EURO have shown a wacky solution like that. Small dots of 8". Something wacky is gonna happen after the big storm rolls through for someone.

[Heisy]

also the ICON goes absolutely ballistic over you guys. if the NS vort really is that strong then it's possible but there's a big grain of salt right now

Someone will def get a surprise if that H5 closes off and dives somewhere near the coast. Pinpointing that at this range is impossible but this is starting to gain legs. Would love the cmc
Or gfs to show it today


My gut tells me it probably ends up farther N since we don’t have a block, but who knows

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

Someone will def get a surprise if that H5 closes off and dives somewhere near the coast. Pinpointing that at this range is impossible but this is starting to gain legs. Would love the cmc
Or gfs to show it today


.

the EPS actually did have a closed ULL over the Delmarva at 06z

[Heisy]

the EPS actually did have a closed ULL over the Delmarva at 06z

Yea I had mentioned even the control was about to go bonkers over the region. You’d have to get into the ccb goods. Worth tracking for sure


.

[midatlanticweather]

3 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Someone will def get a surprise if that H5 closes off and dives somewhere near the coast. Pinpointing that at this range is impossible but this is starting to gain legs. Would love the cmc
Or gfs to show it today


.

This has the feel of a famous miss around Christmas and a famous March that should not be talked about

 

[brooklynwx99]

there has been a pretty well defined trend to sharpen the trailing NS vort. could make things interesting if it crosses the tipping point and cuts off

[Heisy]

12z cmc might be really good… waiting for next frame that H5 looks sweet though



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[ldub23]

Icon says  let  it snow and snow and snow

 

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Heisy said:

12z cmc might be really good… waiting for next frame that H5 looks sweet though



.

I can't believe they still put out those exact same maps as when I was at PSU in the 90s.  And they were crap then! 

[psuhoffman]

I guess we could live with a crap longwave pattern if we just keep getting lucky with thread the needle perfect secondary developments and h5 cutoff lows.  

[Scraff]

Who has “what does the ICON say” on their bingo card? 

[NorthArlington101]

5 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

Icon says  let  it snow and snow and snow

zoomed in for the weenies (me).

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

zoomed in for the weenies.

Fairfax is useless anyway

[87storms]

CMC rainfall totals are wild. Drought buster stuff.

[LeesburgWx]

Are we actually about to back into something here? 

[Heisy]

NSFW



.

[SnowenOutThere]

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

zoomed in for the weenies (me).

That local jackpot right over my backyard, LOCK IT IN!!

[NorthArlington101]

2 minutes ago, Heisy said:

NSFW



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#dusted at the surface. Might get going further north. Still... exciting!

[jewell2188]

What are the winds looking like Sunday/monday??

[87storms]

Are we actually about to back into something here? 

Looks like we’re relying on that trailing vort. The initial coastal is a rainer, albeit a beneficial one.

[WxUSAF]

22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I guess we could live with a crap longwave pattern if we just keep getting lucky with thread the needle perfect secondary developments and h5 cutoff lows.  

If we pull another rabbit out of the hat somehow, I’m doing to double my snowfall prediction for the year because it’s clearly one of THOSE winters.

[stormy]

12z ICON dumps snow Tuesday/Wednesday

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, stormy said:

12z ICON dumps snow Tuesday/Wednesday

 

[NorthArlington101]

GEFS looks like a tick in the right direction with the vort pass, FWIW. Doesn't result in much digital snow, but trackable