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December Mid/Long Range Discussion

WxUSAF

By WxUSAF,
in Mid Atlantic

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Bob Chill
Bob Chill

No matter how long of a break you take from here, nothing changes. Not.one.thing. 

mappy
mappy

Good morning --  Winter starts Friday (climatological seasons for the win), and our regular snow birds are coming back to roost for the winter. As such our threads are becoming more active, espec

stormtracker
stormtracker

Seconded. And while we're at it, yall remember when posting a model post 200 hours was scorned upon?  Remember how the community would collectively rain hell on a poster who did that?  It's not a

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
44 minutes ago, Ji said:

details? I thought the weeklies occured on Mon and Thursday

They went back to flipping the NAO/AO negative by early Jan and run the table that way. PAC backs off some creating the “it” look for mid Atlantic snow.  

36 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Surprised weeklies run daily now. And even though Iove how they look today, the fact that they’re flip flopping so hard hardy increases any confidence in them. Let’s see if they stick with the new look the next several runs. 

I don’t bring them up everyday.  I tend to view them over a period of time for trends. I brought them up the other day not because they suddenly were bad but because they were bleeding the wrong way consistent for 5 days. I finally thought it was worth mentioning after multiple worse runs. Usually I wouldn’t bring them up again so soon except since I seemed to start a mini shitstorm (it’s a technical term) with my observation of the negative I’d point out they had a very good run today. 

8 minutes ago, Ji said:


Just seems to make their value less. Sorts when gfs runs 4 times a day

I disagree. As long as you don’t freak out over every single run. Each run has the same exact value the old 2 runs a week had. Only now you don’t have to way several days to see if it was a fluke. You can watch trends. Come to some conclusions quicker perhaps. More data is better so long as you aren’t emotional about each run.  I know that’s a big ask though. 

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1735025491352912155?s=46&t=JDI46BeqOMUGnLaA2k6MTw
 

his troll game is A+

He is a troll, and a perpetual dick.

Well duh. An extended Pac jet, with an equatorward shift, is a hallmark of an El Nino. Ofc he makes posts like this to claim a torch is imminent. Jet extensions with an exit region closer to the US west coast also happen to favor a +PNA, but more so when the jet is shifted poleward. So an El Nino winter can feature both periods of +/-PNA, or be predominantly one phase or another in a given season depending on the exact character/strength of the event. The strength and position of the NE PAC vortex determines to a large extent how much cold air is available in Canada/US during a Nino, and so other factors such as AO/NAO phase are paramount in determining whether or not we have a colder/snowy outcome. But yes, let's make it all about the NPJ, which is an ever present influence on the downstream pattern, regardless of ENSO state, especially during the winter.

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Daniel Boone

Daniel Boone

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, CAPE said:

He is a troll, and a perpetual dick.

Well duh. An extended Pac jet, with an equatorward shift, is a hallmark of an El Nino. Ofc he makes posts like this to claim a torch is imminent. Jet extensions with an exit region closer to the US west coast also happen to favor a +PNA, but more so when the jet is shifted poleward. So an El Nino winter can feature both periods of +/-PNA, or be predominantly one phase or another in a given season depending on the exact character/strength of the event. The strength and position of the NE PAC vortex determines to a large extent how much cold air is available in Canada/US during a Nino, and so other factors such as AO/NAO phase are paramount in determining whether or not we have a colder/snowy outcome. But yes, let's make it all about the NPJ, which is an ever present influence on the downstream pattern, regardless of ENSO state, especially during the winter.

As far as a perpetual one , I don't know but, I'd venture to say he likes perpetual one's. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, CAPE said:

He is a troll, and a perpetual dick.

Well duh. An extended Pac jet, with an equatorward shift, is a hallmark of an El Nino. Ofc he makes posts like this to claim a torch is imminent. Jet extensions with an exit region closer to the US west coast also happen to favor a +PNA, but more so when the jet is shifted poleward. So an El Nino winter can feature both periods of +/-PNA, or be predominantly one phase or another in a given season depending on the exact character/strength of the event. The strength and position of the NE PAC vortex determines to a large extent how much cold air is available in Canada/US during a Nino, and so other factors such as AO/NAO phase are paramount in determining whether or not we have a colder/snowy outcome. But yes, let's make it all about the NPJ, which is an ever present influence on the downstream pattern, regardless of ENSO state, especially during the winter.

He knows 90% have no idea what he’s talking about.
 

The way I look at it…to simplify, in a true west based modoki Nino like 2003 and 2015 the N pac trough is likely to set up far enough west that the nao isn’t as critical.  In a super east based super Nino like 1998 the pac trough will be displaced so far east and dominant the nao won’t matter we’re screwed.  But in all the rest the NAO is critical in determining our fate. If the NAO is negative enough to buckle the flow we will get enough trough in the east for the equation to work. If the nao is positive there is nothing to stop the pacific airmass east of the pac trough from just blasting across the CONUS under the positive NAO. Luckily the tropical forcing in a Nino is such that it also has the e highest correlations to -nao of the enso states. Add in ascending solar, descending -QBO and a weak spv and we “should” be good.  

Right now Webber can troll because with a raging pos NAO that pac configuration won’t work. But watch what happens if the nao flips. 

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

He knows 90% have no idea what he’s talking about.
 

The way I look at it…to simplify, in a true west based modoki Nino like 2003 and 2015 the N pac trough is likely to set up far enough west that the nao isn’t as critical.  In a super east based super Nino like 1998 the pac trough will be displaced so far east and dominant the nao won’t matter we’re screwed.  But in all the rest the NAO is critical in determining our fate. If the NAO is negative enough to buckle the flow we will get enough trough in the east for the equation to work. If the nao is positive there is nothing to stop the pacific airmass east of the pac trough from just blasting across the CONUS under the positive NAO. Luckily the tropical forcing in a Nino is such that it also has the e highest correlations to -nao of the enso states. Add in ascending solar, descending -QBO and a weak spv and we “should” be good.  

Right now Webber can troll because with a raging pos NAO that pac configuration won’t work. But watch what happens if the nao flips. 

I think we agree, we will see -NAO episodes but probably not sustained(nothing like 2009-10), and more of the character of 2016- although hopefully sooner and a bit more frequent in late winter.

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susqushawn

susqushawn

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Wth is the 6z gfs doing on Christmas eve? :blink:

oh you know just your typical retrograde of an Atlantic low hundreds of miles before phasing with northern stream energy, stall/loop, bring some flakes then off it goes.  no biggie lol.  nice to see HP anchored in E Canada that long, of course it's only the op...

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, susqushawn said:

oh you know just your typical retrograde of an Atlantic low hundreds of miles before phasing with northern stream energy, stall/loop, bring some flakes then off it goes.  no biggie lol.  nice to see HP anchored in E Canada that long, of course it's only the op...

Yep I eta to my post right after. Just an odd look.

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BristowWx

BristowWx

Posted
Posted
Just now, dailylurker said:

That's one Giant ocean storm. Looks like the storm on Saturn lol

The uncertainty of that timeframe is making this more interesting.  Beats the steady march of warm Pac air that would arrive with Santa like we were looking at few days ago.  This could be fun...or not.  

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, CAPE said:

End of the EPS showing some improvement in the HL with the AO and EPO around neutral along with a +PNA. NA needs work but that is a serviceable look and might get some colder air working southward into central Canada with time.

1703808000-lv8XKzUzoYw.png

That’s definitely a first step. But so long as the nao stays positive the flow to our north will be west to east and pac maritime air will dominate. The pac trough would have to retro really far for that equation to work, see 2003 and 2015 for what that would look like. But I don’t think we’re likely to get that. Ultimately until the nao goes negative we’re going to struggle with temps and be rooting for a lot of convoluted things to go right to overcome very marginal at best thermals. 

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Heisy

Heisy

Posted
Posted

Just for fun but the 6z euro control was about to dump on the region. Ends at 144 but that N//S was closing off in a perfect spot.

Anyway, I’m pretty intrigued if we can get this N/S to dive down. Crazy things can happen with a cutoff like that. I’d put it at very low probability, but from a meteorological-fan standpoint I’m rooting for something wild.

60d72c7e33684ec46efb82eea47a4f04.jpg
4a2fac0aeb995ea2ad6dc31a026f77b6.jpg


.

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Ji

Ji

Posted
Posted
29 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Just for fun but the 6z euro control was about to dump on the region. Ends at 144 but that N//S was closing off in a perfect spot.

Anyway, I’m pretty intrigued if we can get this N/S to dive down. Crazy things can happen with a cutoff like that. I’d put it at very low probability, but from a meteorological-fan standpoint I’m rooting for something wild.

60d72c7e33684ec46efb82eea47a4f04.jpg
4a2fac0aeb995ea2ad6dc31a026f77b6.jpg


.

i counted about 10 out of 50 members that had an interesting solution at 6z....

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Heisy

Heisy

Posted
Posted
i counted about 10 out of 50 members that had an interesting solution at 6z....

Yea has a little support. Icon, ukie sort of. As mentioned on our sub I do wonder if this is just euro bias. Hard to understand how that N/S is diving so far south without a block. At least it’s something to keep an eye on.


.
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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

That’s definitely a first step. But so long as the nao stays positive the flow to our north will be west to east and pac maritime air will dominate. The pac trough would have to retro really far for that equation to work, see 2003 and 2015 for what that would look like. But I don’t think we’re likely to get that. Ultimately until the nao goes negative we’re going to struggle with temps and be rooting for a lot of convoluted things to go right to overcome very marginal at best thermals. 

So for now, no matter what else gets better...I'm taking a "better NAO or it didn't happen" approach, lol (since that seems to be the main villain at the moment)

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