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December Mid/Long Range Discussion

WxUSAF

By WxUSAF,
in Mid Atlantic

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WxUSAF

WxUSAF

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2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

A trillion times is probably a few hundred billion too many, but GFS and GGEM both show wavebreaking on the Atlantic side that improves the NAO domain and brings some man highs toward us Xmas weekend. With the active storm track, there’s at least some intrigue if timing works out. So yeah, could be worse. Temps still don’t look like a blowtorch for our little corner of the world. Is the whole CONUS well AN? Totally. Will we have a AN December? Very likely, but still nowhere near 2015 for us.

12z euro similar with Atlantic side wave breaking and a big high nosing in Xmas weekend. Guess we’ll see if all this can last even 6-12 hours, but I guess it’s something. Could at least prevent shorts for Santa??

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Ji

Ji

Posted
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12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

12z euro similar with Atlantic side wave breaking and a big high nosing in Xmas weekend. Guess we’ll see if all this can last even 6-12 hours, but I guess it’s something. Could at least prevent shorts for Santa??

crushing blow for webber

ec-fast_T850_namer_11.png

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WesternFringe

WesternFringe

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12 minutes ago, Ji said:

merry christmas eve eve. Ensembles agree

 

ecmwf_T2ma_us_41.png

Wait, I thought December was already declared a torch and a sea of warm based off of the weeklies a couple weeks ago!?!
 

In reality, so far December has produced snow for many in the sub-forum and it feels pretty cold with lows in the low 20s and highs in the 40s here this week with more of the same on the way over the next week plus.

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Ji

Ji

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8 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

Wait, I thought December was already declared a torch and a sea of warm based off of the weeklies a couple weeks ago!?!
 

In reality, so far December has produced snow for many in the sub-forum and it feels pretty cold with lows in the low 20s and highs in the 40s here this week with more of the same on the way over the next week plus.

no bro--its a carbon copy of Dec 2015 according to Twitter. 

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WinterFire

WinterFire

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13 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

Wait, I thought December was already declared a torch and a sea of warm based off of the weeklies a couple weeks ago!?!
 

In reality, so far December has produced snow for many in the sub-forum and it feels pretty cold with lows in the low 20s and highs in the 40s here this week with more of the same on the way over the next week plus.

Fwiw, DCA is running 1.8 degrees above normal and IAD is running 3.9 degrees above normal. So while it’s been cooler than previous torch Decembers, it’s been solidly AN despite what it may seem like. 

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Ji

Ji

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14 minutes ago, WinterFire said:

Fwiw, DCA is running 1.8 degrees above normal and IAD is running 3.9 degrees above normal. So while it’s been cooler than previous torch Decembers, it’s been solidly AN despite what it may seem like. 

the euro seasonal forecast was +2 for Dec at IAD so it seems like its on track

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

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30 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

Wait, I thought December was already declared a torch and a sea of warm based off of the weeklies a couple weeks ago!?!
 

In reality, so far December has produced snow for many in the sub-forum and it feels pretty cold with lows in the low 20s and highs in the 40s here this week with more of the same on the way over the next week plus.

 

21 minutes ago, Ji said:

no bro--its a carbon copy of Dec 2015 according to Twitter. 

 It as warm as 2015 is a pretty low bar.  Don’t be fooled by the fact we got incredibly lucky with a secondary development along a frontal passage…if the predominant December pattern were to continue all winter we aren’t sniffing some of the ambitious (including my own) snowfall predictions. Maybe it wouldn’t be as bad as some recent total duds but again that’s a low bar. While it may not be the super torch some trolls hyped it’s not what we need for a snowy winter.  Yea there has been some improvement and positive signs today but let’s not pretend we’re in some good pattern now. 

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WesternFringe

WesternFringe

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7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

 It as warm as 2015 is a pretty low bar.  Don’t be fooled by the fact we got incredibly lucky with a secondary development along a frontal passage…if the predominant December pattern were to continue all winter we aren’t sniffing some of the ambitious (including my own) snowfall predictions. Maybe it wouldn’t be as bad as some recent total duds but again that’s a low bar. While it may not be the super torch some trolls hyped it’s not what we need for a snowy winter.  Yea there has been some improvement and positive signs today but let’s not pretend we’re in some good pattern now. 

26 minutes ago, WinterFire said:

Fwiw, DCA is running 1.8 degrees above normal and IAD is running 3.9 degrees above normal. So while it’s been cooler than previous torch Decembers, it’s been solidly AN despite what it may seem like. 

Just to clarify, I wasn’t trying to say we are in an arctic blast good winter weather pattern, but rather that all the doom and gloom torch comments based on weeklies hasn’t panned out here at least.  My area is only about 2 degrees higher than the December average and we haven’t made it yet to the second half of the month which tends to be colder than the first half obviously.  
 

In the end, I think there is a decent to good chance that December ends up being very very similar to previous Decembers wrt average temps here in Augusta County.  Admittedly, I don’t follow metro temps closely, but given the latest guidance from the ops I would not be surprised to see DCA within a degree of normal when averaged at the end of the month.  Time will tell.

 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

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10 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

Just to clarify, I wasn’t trying to say we are in an arctic blast good winter weather pattern, but rather that all the doom and gloom torch comments based on weeklies hasn’t panned out here at least.  My area is only about 2 degrees higher than the December average and we haven’t made it yet to the second half of the month which tends to be colder than the first half obviously.  
 

In the end, I think there is a decent to good chance that December ends up being very very similar to previous Decembers wrt average temps here in Augusta County.  Admittedly, I don’t follow metro temps closely, but given the latest guidance from the ops I would not be surprised to see DCA within a degree of normal when averaged at the end of the month.  Time will tell.

 

I’ll admit I judge a pattern purely by how likely I think it is to produce a snowstorm. I could care less if it’s +3 or +20 or even -5 for that matter, if the long wave configuration is unlikely to produce snow it’s all the same to me. 

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wxdude64

wxdude64

Posted
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14 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

Just to clarify, I wasn’t trying to say we are in an arctic blast good winter weather pattern, but rather that all the doom and gloom torch comments based on weeklies hasn’t panned out here at least.  My area is only about 2 degrees higher than the December average and we haven’t made it yet to the second half of the month which tends to be colder than the first half obviously.  
 

In the end, I think there is a decent to good chance that December ends up being very very similar to previous Decembers wrt average temps here in Augusta County.  Admittedly, I don’t follow metro temps closely, but given the latest guidance from the ops I would not be surprised to see DCA within a degree of normal when averaged at the end of the month.  Time will tell.

 

Agree. Running a +2.6 for the month here so far. Blazing? No. Will it stay above normal by the end of the month? Maybe. Is it better than the record breaking +10.3 from Dec 2015, absolutely. 

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WesternFringe

WesternFringe

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16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’ll admit I judge a pattern purely by how likely I think it is to produce a snowstorm. I could care less if it’s +3 or +20 or even -5 for that matter, if the long wave configuration is unlikely to produce snow it’s all the same to me. 

Even though I am the one that posted about temps, I fully agree with you.  
 

It is nonsense all the talk about snow chances being doomed because it is warm 5 days before an event or that weeklies showing 1-2 degree AN mean no snow chances for that entire week. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

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12 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

Even though I am the one that posted about temps, I fully agree with you.  
 

It is nonsense all the talk about snow chances being doomed because it is warm 5 days before an event or that weeklies showing 1-2 degree AN mean no snow chances for that entire week. 

Frankly some of our snowy Nino periods were even warmer than people realize because snow cover severely depresses temps. 

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stormy

stormy

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10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Frankly some of our snowy Nino periods were even warmer than people realize because snow cover severely depresses temps. 

This statement verifies many statements 50 years ago from observers.  "Some of our heavy snow winters were not all that cold".   Very cold winters like 76-77 suppress storms.

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Ji

Ji

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Surprised weeklies run daily now. And even though Iove how they look today, the fact that they’re flip flopping so hard hardy increases any confidence in them. Let’s see if they stick with the new look the next several runs. 

Weeklies shouldn’t run daily.
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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

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2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Surprised weeklies run daily now. And even though Iove how they look today, the fact that they’re flip flopping so hard hardy increases any confidence in them. Let’s see if they stick with the new look the next several runs. 

May as well just call 'em dailies and be done with it, lol

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