December Mid/Long Range Discussion

[WinterWxLuvr]

Guaranteed cold

[stormtracker]

Even for a big rainstorm, I think this one is pretty interesting.  Drought denter at least.

[osfan24]

I know it's still early, but painful to see these missed opportunities. Looks like this one could have been Dec 2009 on steroids.

[psuhoffman]

42 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So...if the NAO were to end up sinking the ship this winter, would you attribute that to worsening climo, just bad luck, or worsening climo making said bad luck harder to overcome?

It's way too early for that, I still think its going to work out.  But...if it fails we would have to look at all the options, effects of last years eruption, there was a pretty significant solar flare recently, did tropical forcing end up in a state more conducive to a +NAO than the typical Nino, or random chaos... and of course it has seemed to be harder to get a -NAO recently, especially if you factor in we've been in an ascending solar phase where blocking SHOULD be more prevalent recently yet it wasn't.  But I am hopeful we never have to do that analysis.  

[NorthArlington101]

6 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

I know it's still early, but painful to see these missed opportunities. Looks like this one could have been Dec 2009 on steroids.

Well at least right now we aren't fretting the exact path of the MSLP. Looks to be more inland than would be good for a lot of the burbs.

Agree with others generally that I still don't think we have any clue what will happen after the big storm rolls through. Probably nothing, though you never know!

[brooklynwx99]

pretty wild wavebreaking showing up on the OP runs now... this is a trillion times better than what was advertised for this time period a few days ago

[midatlanticweather]

The GFS had a bit better of an evolution with the low. I mean, it is a good rainer and would be an amazing snow if it happened the right way and we had cold air. But the last few days it has looked soooo strange. 

More drought denting cold rain! Happy that it seems likely now. 

Wish things would get clearer in the long-range for more chances, but I think we are going to see some strange outcomes! THANK YOU to the knowledgeable posters for the details and nuances that can be good in the midst of a lot of bad looks. 

 

[brooklynwx99]

this is about as big of a positive change in the Pacific pattern as you can see, compared from a couple days ago. really want to see this idea gain some traction

[WxUSAF]

A trillion times is probably a few hundred billion too many, but GFS and GGEM both show wavebreaking on the Atlantic side that improves the NAO domain and brings some man highs toward us Xmas weekend. With the active storm track, there’s at least some intrigue if timing works out. So yeah, could be worse. Temps still don’t look like a blowtorch for our little corner of the world. Is the whole CONUS well AN? Totally. Will we have a AN December? Very likely, but still nowhere near 2015 for us.

[brooklynwx99]

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

A trillion times is probably a few hundred billion too many, but GFS and GGEM both show wavebreaking on the Atlantic side that improves the NAO domain and brings some man highs toward us Xmas weekend. With the active storm track, there’s at least some intrigue if timing works out. So yeah, could be worse. Temps still don’t look like a blowtorch for our little corner of the world. Is the whole CONUS well AN? Totally. Will we have a AN December? Very likely, but still nowhere near 2015 for us.

the reason why I say a trillion is because it leads to a legit storm forming at the end of the run. this is way more fun than the blowtorch that was getting spit out a few days ago

[Rhino16]

15 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is about as big of a positive change in the Pacific pattern as you can see, compared from a couple days ago. really want to see this idea gain some traction

So basically we want that jet to be further south?

[brooklynwx99]

wavebreaks are literal hell for LR ENS guidance so it makes sense that it might be getting sniffed out by OP runs. we shall see, but there is reason for optimism

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, Rhino16 said:

So basically we want that jet to be further south?

look over AK. goes from progressive flow to a massive block

[Heisy]

the reason why I say a trillion is because it leads to a legit storm forming at the end of the run. this is way more fun than the blowtorch that was getting spit out a few days ago

I don’t care if it’s 15 days out. Seeing some solid maps in fantasy range is always encouraging. It beats having them show garbage


.

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

wavebreaks are literal hell for LR ENS guidance so it makes sense that it might be getting sniffed out by OP runs. we shall see, but there is reason for optimism

Lets see what the ens mean looks like at the end of the run today. Hell of a look.

[NorthArlington101]

some quirky looks in there - worth keeping an eye on still.

[brooklynwx99]

8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Lets see what the ens mean looks like at the end of the run today. Hell of a look.

if you roll that out, you get a KU and then the 50/50 leads to a -NAO block. total 180 from the garbage we were seeing only a few days ago

[psuhoffman]

23 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

A trillion times is probably a few hundred billion too many, but GFS and GGEM both show wavebreaking on the Atlantic side that improves the NAO domain and brings some man highs toward us Xmas weekend. With the active storm track, there’s at least some intrigue if timing works out. So yeah, could be worse. Temps still don’t look like a blowtorch for our little corner of the world. Is the whole CONUS well AN? Totally. Will we have a AN December? Very likely, but still nowhere near 2015 for us.

IF, big if, things were to continue to follow a 2015/16 type pattern progression but slightly colder given the weaker enso, I would take that.  Our area just missed out on about 3 other big snow events in Jan-Mar because temps were just a few degrees too warm.  A pattern repeat of 2016 but slightly colder could be a big win.  

[psuhoffman]

12 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Lets see what the ens mean looks like at the end of the run today. Hell of a look.

Historically absent a NAO block the other feature that showed up next most frequently in our warning level snow events was a "west of Hudson Bay" ridge.  If we can get that ridging up top centered a little further west we would have a chance.  Of course ideally getting the vortex off Baffin Bay will help enormously but I really don't see that setting up shop permanently...the SPV is too weak, any TPV will be susceptible to destructive interference.  

[psuhoffman]

22 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

wavebreaks are literal hell for LR ENS guidance so it makes sense that it might be getting sniffed out by OP runs. we shall see, but there is reason for optimism

Correct me if I'm wrong but I think they still haven't aligned the GEFS to the new FV3 GFS.  So they are not as cohesive as is typical of most Op/Ens tandems.  

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Correct me if I'm wrong but I think they still haven't aligned the GEFS to the new FV3 GFS.  So they are not as cohesive as is typical of most Op/Ens tandems.  

I'm not sure. I think I might have heard something about that but someone probably knows a lot more than me about that stuff

[WxUSAF]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Correct me if I'm wrong but I think they still haven't aligned the GEFS to the new FV3 GFS.  So they are not as cohesive as is typical of most Op/Ens tandems.  

 

12 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I'm not sure. I think I might have heard something about that but someone probably knows a lot more than me about that stuff

I thought that was last winter? I think the GEFS has been upgraded. @high risk?

[high risk]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

 

I thought that was last winter? I think the GEFS has been upgraded. @high risk?

  The GEFS was indeed upgraded to use the FV3 core in 2020!    https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/meg/gefsv12/

  It doesn't, however, have the changes that were made to the GFS in Version 16 in 2021.

[WxUSAF]

20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

IF, big if, things were to continue to follow a 2015/16 type pattern progression but slightly colder given the weaker enso, I would take that.  Our area just missed out on about 3 other big snow events in Jan-Mar because temps were just a few degrees too warm.  A pattern repeat of 2016 but slightly colder could be a big win.  

@40/70 Benchmark has mentioned a colder 2015-16 several times as well. I think we’d be pretty happy if that’s what we got in the end.

[brooklynwx99]

GEFS and GEPS are both seeing the changes in the Pacific. seems like it's gaining traction

[Eskimo Joe]

^look at the western Canadian ridge. Nice.

[stormy]

The big news with the 12z runs is that the Euro is caving to the GFS by making Mondays system an inland runner.

The 00z gave Augusta County .25" of rain. The 12z gives us 3.19"!!!  For D.C., 00z gave 1.18, 12z gives 2.37".

Also more snow back in the western mts.

[psuhoffman]

Just now, stormy said:

The big news is more snow.

I choose to read it this way 

[jayyy]

Going to reiterate my statement from roughly 2 days ago. There is zero use in debbing over a few days of meh model runs 300+ hours out. Models are 1000% going to flip flop a bunch given how many moving pieces there are. The pacific, NA, NAO domain, etc, are all going to be changing around over the coming 2+ weeks. There is zero shot models have everything nailed down at this range. The only thing we DO know is that models will continue to flip flop around until we get closer. Today’s model runs look a lot more workable than they did a few days ago. Could very well look like shit again tomorrow and then trend back in our direction next week. The key is to zoom out, look at the big picture, and hone in the most important players on the field. The rest will fall into place in due time.

Will it be relatively warm the next 2ish weeks? Yes. Will it be a 2015 December torch? No. Will we have some chances at snow before Christmas? Probably not, but not 0% either.

Thank you to all who analyze LR models so in depth each day and for passing on the wealth of knowledge you have. A colder version of 2015-2016 certainly wouldn’t be the end of the world. If we had hit on those 2-3 cold rain storms we saw, we would have had an epic winter. I’d take that in a heartbeat after the last 7 years.

[stormy]

32 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I choose to read it this way 

Congratulations!!   You're exactly right!  Snowshoe goes from 1 inch to 6 inches.  Red Oak Knob in Highland goes from .5 inch to 3 inches.  It might be headed your way......