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December Mid/Long Range Discussion

WxUSAF

By WxUSAF,
in Mid Atlantic

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Bob Chill
Bob Chill

No matter how long of a break you take from here, nothing changes. Not.one.thing. 

mappy
mappy

Good morning --  Winter starts Friday (climatological seasons for the win), and our regular snow birds are coming back to roost for the winter. As such our threads are becoming more active, espec

stormtracker
stormtracker

Seconded. And while we're at it, yall remember when posting a model post 200 hours was scorned upon?  Remember how the community would collectively rain hell on a poster who did that?  It's not a

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wxdude64

wxdude64

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

DM stormtracker and tell him to give me the ctrl-alt-del button on my mini mod panel. 10 seconds and it's all fixed! Lol

 

Jokes aside, human emotional control (of lack thereof) and how it transforms quality discussion into a trench fight has me turned off probably permamently. Some of it is 100% deliberate and some of it is the oil/water nature of group interactions when there is no personal recourse or consequences (other than a ban but that does nothing to fix the global problem way beyond AMWX). 

I behave identical online and in person. What you see is what you get. There is a core crew here I love who are aligned but things have changed and my tank filled up nearly 2 years ago. It just wasn't fun anymore. It became tiresome. 

People have become extremely centric and inflexible online in general. My way or highway! Lol. Add in bro-science, conspiracies, ànd persuasive morons leading sheep and it gets REALLY hard to have quality interactions that include facts and other people's points of view. Rational discussion, willingness to seriously consider another's views, and ability to concede or compromise is just about gone from social media. People have much more fun interacting with emotions and drama. For many, its the only reason to engage. Emotional control is something I hold in high standards. If you want to gain knowledge and explore ideas and concepts properly, you need to listen to everything and contemplate. Not knee jerk spew garbage cuz you don't agree or your feelings are dented. Unfortunately there is no fix because the majority doesn't want to "fix things". They like stirring and prodding and poking for entertainment. I can't do that anymore. 

GREAT post. Now THIS ^^ THIS is what needs posted at the top of the forum. BTW, great to hear from you Bob, thanks for taking us along your adventure with the updates and pics.  

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midatlanticweather

midatlanticweather

Posted
Posted
37 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

DM stormtracker and tell him to give me the ctrl-alt-del button on my mini mod panel. 10 seconds and it's all fixed! Lol

 

Jokes aside, human emotional control (of lack thereof) and how it transforms quality discussion into a trench fight has me turned off probably permamently. Some of it is 100% deliberate and some of it is the oil/water nature of group interactions when there is no personal recourse or consequences (other than a ban but that does nothing to fix the global problem way beyond AMWX). 

I behave identical online and in person. What you see is what you get. There is a core crew here I love who are aligned but things have changed and my tank filled up nearly 2 years ago. It just wasn't fun anymore. It became tiresome. 

People have become extremely centric and inflexible online in general. My way or highway! Lol. Add in bro-science, conspiracies, ànd persuasive morons leading sheep and it gets REALLY hard to have quality interactions that include facts and other people's points of view. Rational discussion, willingness to seriously consider another's views, and ability to concede or compromise is just about gone from social media. People have much more fun interacting with emotions and drama. For many, its the only reason to engage. Emotional control is something I hold in high standards. If you want to gain knowledge and explore ideas and concepts properly, you need to listen to everything and contemplate. Not knee jerk spew garbage cuz you don't agree or your feelings are dented. Unfortunately there is no fix because the majority doesn't want to "fix things". They like stirring and prodding and poking for entertainment. I can't do that anymore. 

This is why you are missed, Bob! You were a "voice in the wilderness" that had great stuff to share and I learned so much from you! You are right on leaving the group and moving on as it is a time suck and people only seem to hear what they want to hear letting emotion override. I am glad I was part of the group when you posted regularly and continue to miss your insights! Despite this, I would only want what is best for you or anyone else. I agree I am also too emotional a commenter, but the voice of reason helped a lot! Thanks for this post! It was great! Stay healthy and appreciate all you did share in the past! :) - You are an AMWX all-star in my book! 

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Weather Will

Weather Will

Posted
Posted

For over a month, many of the long range forecasters and the seasonal models have been talking/showing potential for mid Dec. onward.  Ensembles are coming into range by the end of the week...potential still looks on track.  Discernible threats TBD.  WB 6Z GEFS has PNA neutral to positive by December 3rd.

IMG_2102.png

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Scarlet Pimpernel

Scarlet Pimpernel

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, jayyy said:


We are in a completely different situation this time around. CAPE, PSU, Brooklyn and many others have taken the time to thoroughly explain the reasons why this winter’s overall pattern is vastly different than years past. Does it mean we’ll see an 09-10 type winter? No. Maybe we do get extremely unlucky again. Wouldn’t be the first niño to fail and it certainly wouldn’t be the last. But the weather doesn’t give a crap about our feelings. At the end of the day, science is the name of the game. It is and always will be the driving force behind our outcomes - good and bad.
 

I know this is an older post (catching up in here on all the..."fun"!), but I agree  Many knowledgeable people in here have called for a much more favorable setting compared to previous winters (as you indicate, @psuhoffman, @CAPE, @brooklynwx99, etc.).  Of course, nobody is calling for a 2009-10 redux (though we'd take it!) or even a single HECS type storm, and nothing is "guaranteed".  But it should be far better...maybe a low bar to cross, but still.  Hell, last winter I got all of 0.5" snow on Feb. 1 that was gone before noon, and some snow-TV sometime at the end of Feb.  Not even a single illustrious PSU-inch for the season!! :lol: Other than that and the mini Arctic blast around Christmas there was nothing; in my opinion it's hard to do worse (oh, and don't forget the +5 to +7 temperature departure, too!).

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DarkSharkWX

DarkSharkWX

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Meh 

 

IMG_4036.png

even with a great pattern its going to take some time to flush the previous pac puke warm air out 

 

 

5 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

One important detail to note about this upcoming -NAO dominated pattern. The -PNA that’s also coming later this week and weekend is going to really scour out all the cold air on the continent. And that takes some time to regenerate in situ. So you see a gorgeous H5 pattern on the ensembles like this on and after the 6th or 7th and think we’re back to frigid temps and …nah. 

IMG_7289.png

IMG_7290.png

IMG_7291.png

 

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Weather Will

Weather Will

Posted
Posted

The WB GEFS extended from yesterday showed warmth through the 7 day period ending on the 8th.  We should see a significant cool down as we head toward mid month.  If you are looking for snow during the holidays, the upcoming mid to late December pattern gives us a chance based on the current long range guidance.  It definitely is not screaming torch...

.

IMG_2105.png

IMG_2106.png

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stormy

stormy

Posted
Posted
34 minutes ago, anotherman said:


@psuhoffman mentioned it previously, as well. The disturbing part is we have been getting in patterns that historically deliver and they don’t. It’s still too warm.

Perhaps you're listening to the wrong people??

It is not too warm if we get the right stormtrack and surface features co-operate.

Strong high over Lake Ontario and deepening low over Wilmington tracking to Norfolk and Ocean City.

Brooklynwx99 gave you some wise advice.

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nj2va

nj2va

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, anotherman said:

I think the point being made is that we could have the perfect pattern and still not have what we need. Everything is warm so even ideal conditions don’t result in snow.

As mentioned earlier today, the -PNA is going to flood the CONUS with pac air and will take time to scour that out - which is why you see AN even with the favorable ATL. IMO, the PAC has been the bigger factor in our sucky winters of late because it was too hostile to overcome even with a favorable ATL. I’m more bullish this winter because it doesn’t look like we are going to be in a consistent -PNA. 
 

I disagree that “even perfect patterns have been too warm” - I think we just have had some bad luck with timing in some cases. Take the beach blizzards the eastern areas have gotten recently. Was it too warm? No, we were on the losing side of the setup/timing. 

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Chris78

Chris78

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, nj2va said:

As mentioned earlier today, the -PNA is going to flood the CONUS with pac air and will take time to scour that out - which is why you see AN even with the favorable ATL. IMO, the PAC has been the bigger factor in our sucky winters of late because it was too hostile to overcome even with a favorable ATL. I’m more bullish this winter because it doesn’t look like we are going to be in a consistent -PNA. 
 

I disagree that “even perfect patterns have been too warm” - I think we just have had some bad luck with timing in some cases. Take the beach blizzards the eastern areas have gotten recently. Was it too warm? No, we were on the losing side of the setup/timing. 

I think there's a disconnect in regards to people's expectations on what the ground truth should look like compared to 500mb maps. The first week of December cold is going to be scoured out with the - pna and flooding of the conus of Pacific air mass. As the Nao establishes itself and eventually we get help from the pacific side ( hopefully) cold will return but it won't happen overnight even though the reds and blues are where we want them. @CAPE @WxUSAF @Weather Will have all been alluding to this this morning.

It does appear that we could be heading into a more favorable period around mid month which is better timing then having it right now in my opinion. 

Patience is needed the next few weeks.  I know that's tough after the last several years.

Better times ahead.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

Two things can be true.
1)It can still snow if we get the right pattern 

2) it’s getting harder to snow as it warms and marginal setups that used to work do not anymore. 
 

The hostile cycle of the pacific we’ve been in is very likely MORE to blame for our snow drought the last 7 years.  Even had the climate not warmed the last 7 years were not going to be a good period given the pacific mean long wave pattern. But, we’ve had -pdo cycles before and they weren’t as bad in a colder base state. The warming is making bad worse. 
 

Keep in mind as we lose marginal events my early season snow stats might become obsolete since most of those first 1” storms even up here were very marginal.  We might just have to wait deeper into winter even in a good pattern to get snow. Of course that will limit and mute a snowy season some. But it doesn’t mean it won’t snow, just maybe we lose an early season marginal threat. We might also gain a threat mid season when added heat COULD even be a net benefit in some setups.  
 

There are lots of variables to this. Terp did a great job quantifying this as best as possible given current evidence and data. But the two truths remain. 
 

It can still snow. It is snowing less. 

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