December Mid/Long Range Discussion

[raindancewx]

1973 with a warmer Atlantic would probably be a 2-3 month window of very powerful, wet storms, with marginal cold for a lot of the Eastern US.  You'd force a lot of the fluke super cold/strong storms to the north with southern heat already building up from the south. Atlantic was frigid in the early 1970s. 

1972-73 is the snowiest winter/cold season on record in a lot of interior West. I don't expect that this year, but it's a pretty special winter for a lot of the country, including the southern US.

 

[Yeoman]

21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Welcome to 3 pages ago. Let me know when you hear about Elvis. 

Give him a break.. not everyone can spend 23 hours a day around here chasing unicorns

[WesternFringe]

2 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GEFS, looking for a chilly Christmas?  South Florida, Cuba and the Yucatán!

Again, 2-3 degrees warmer than average isn’t warm in late December.  And what does the 2 degree departure from average over an entire week have to do with discrete snow chances?  What were the average temp anomalies for the week where I just got 2.7” and much of this board got 1-4”?

[psuhoffman]

31 minutes ago, Ji said:

Keep in mind I can find a one week snapshot in some good nino years that look somewhat like that. 
Dec 1957

Dec 1965

Dec 1986

It’s not the end of the world if a week in December looks like crap and resembles 1973/1992. The problem with those years was the whole winter was like that!  As I said before some good ninos had a stretch like this in Dec. The good/bad years diverged around new years. We will know soon how this is heading!  

[Daniel Boone]

26 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

1973 with a warmer Atlantic would probably be a 2-3 month window of very powerful, wet storms, with marginal cold for a lot of the Eastern US.  You'd force a lot of the fluke super cold/strong storms to the north with southern heat already building up from the south. Atlantic was frigid in the early 1970s. 

1972-73 is the snowiest winter/cold season on record in a lot of interior West. I don't expect that this year, but it's a pretty special winter for a lot of the country, including the southern US.

 

Yeah, was thinking similarly. Would possibly allow systems that tracked across the deep South then to travel further North. 

[psuhoffman]

35 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

1973 with a warmer Atlantic would probably be a 2-3 month window of very powerful, wet storms, with marginal cold for a lot of the Eastern US.  You'd force a lot of the fluke super cold/strong storms to the north with southern heat already building up from the south. Atlantic was frigid in the early 1970s. 

1972-73 is the snowiest winter/cold season on record in a lot of interior West. I don't expect that this year, but it's a pretty special winter for a lot of the country, including the southern US.

 

 

7 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah, was thinking similarly. Would possibly allow systems that tracked across the deep South then to travel further North. 

Today’s raging pacific with that incredibly +AO is likely a disaster.  Next week on guidance doesn’t exactly look promising for snow.  Let’s just hope we don’t have to test that theory. 
 

1973, 1992 and 1995 failed primarily because the NAO/AO were positive. 1998 the AO/NAO flipped negative but the North Pac vortex was just out of control and flooded pac puke all winter regardless of the nao. 1998 was extremely east based though and combined with a colder pac profile around ENSO created maybe the greatest contrast which likely lead to the strength and displacement east of the pacific nino long wave pattern.  Other than 1998 which was an anomaly, the other analogs all fell in line snowy or not based on the NAO. 
 

1958, 1966, 1987, 2010 the NAO was negative. 
1973, 1992, 1995 the NAO was positive. 

[Ji]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

 

Today’s raging pacific with that incredibly +AO is likely a disaster.  Next week on guidance doesn’t exactly look promising for snow.  Let’s just hope we don’t have to test that theory. 
 

1973, 1992 and 1995 failed primarily because the NAO/AO were positive. 1998 the AO/NAO flipped negative but the North Pac vortex was just out of control and flooded pac puke all winter regardless of the nao. 1998 was extremely east based though and combined with a colder pac profile around ENSO created maybe the greatest contrast which likely lead to the strength and displacement east of the pacific nino long wave pattern.  Other than 1998 which was an anomaly, the other analogs all fell in line snowy or not based on the NAO. 
 

1958, 1966, 1987, 2010 the NAO was negative. 
1973, 1992, 1995 the NAO was positive. 

Don Sutherland had some research on -NAO in November correlating to -NAO winters so.....i think we just need to fast forward 2 weeks so we can stop guessing lol

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Don Sutherland had some research on -NAO in November correlating to -NAO winters so.....i think we just need to fast forward 2 weeks so we can stop guessing lol

Yeah man this is like watching a high stakes game where you are hiding your face because ya can't watch, yet keep looking with one eye, hoping for the best yet having the worst keep flashing before you too, lol The suspense is magnified given our recent stretch (if we'd done better the last 7 years it wouldn't feel as tense!)

[Ji]

Yeah man this is like watching a high stakes game where you are hiding your face because ya can't watch, yet keep looking with one eye, hoping for the best yet having the worst keep flashing before you too, lol The suspense is magnified given our recent stretch (if we'd done better the last 7 years it wouldn't feel as tense!)

Psu is in mid-season form and it's terrifying. It's like falling off the titanic and someone hands you a napkin instead of life raft

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[brooklynwx99]

18 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah man this is like watching a high stakes game where you are hiding your face because ya can't watch, yet keep looking with one eye, hoping for the best yet having the worst keep flashing before you too, lol The suspense is magnified given our recent stretch (if we'd done better the last 7 years it wouldn't feel as tense!)

i wouldn’t worry. i haven’t seen any reason why this year won’t deliver. if we’re in the same spot in a month with crap on the horizon for 10 days, then it’s time to worry

[raindancewx]

The special characteristic of 1973 from my research is the recurring volatility of two long lived patterns during short periods. I'm just saying...you'd have more chances than you think. The variation is so fast and dynamic the monthly indexes are almost irrelevant by month.

You can see a pretty clear 45 day-cycle of cold reaching the east in that pattern. Early January, late February, early April. You can also see a 45-day tendency for super heat in the East as well- late January, early March, late April. AO was overall positive in Jan-Mar 1973...but you know...still pretty damn cold at times.

Apr 16-30 was also very warm in the East, per the pattern.

[paulythegun]

The latest euro weeklies suggest that January will either look like the euro weeklies or that their 0.001% added value will not prove useful beyond random dart throwing and climo

[pazzo83]

5 hours ago, Deck Pic said:

The 2/4/95 event was a pretty nice one for I-95.  K/U event.  I think the pattern was garbage and we thread the needle.  But yeah, at least around here the winter mostly sucked outside of that.  I think 72-73 is a better overall analog than 94-95 in terms of bad winters.. of course that winter was a total debacle.  I'm not concerned yet.  December isnt a winter month.

just refreshing my memory (I remember a good amount of snow in the Shenandoah Valley - we were trying to drive to Massanutten to go skiing): http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1995/04-Feb-95.html

[pazzo83]

4 hours ago, Deck Pic said:

95-96 would go on my personal list of banned terms in this forum along with January 25, 2000 and many others.

 

March 2001 - from the other side of the coin.

[nj2va]

GFS with quite the rain maker starting Sunday.  Basically occludes and stalls over the Mid Atlantic.  2-4”+ area wide.

Gotta think with this active STJ, we’ll score with a significant snowstorm once we get some help from the pac and atl.

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z GEFS, colder at the end of its run compared to 18Z and compared to average...maybe today will be a better day!!!

[Ralph Wiggum]

5 hours ago, pazzo83 said:

March 2001 - from the other side of the coin.

Boxing Day?

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z EPS Day 14 compared to yesterday.  Looks better!

[CAPE]

Mean suggests some frozen for this window. Biggest difference on the 0z run is some improvement in the NA. The op run has been hinting at heights increasing in the NAO domain via wave breaking. Something to keep an eye on over the next several runs, and need to see it on the EPS.

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GFS.....early next week system....20 degrees colder this run....buckle up!!!!

[Ji]

Gfs tries to give us winter weather next week as part of that noreaster

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[Wxdavis5784]

35 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z GFS.....early next week system....20 degrees colder this run....buckle up!!!!

It won’t happen because Snowman19 is confused. 

[Benjamn3]

In the words of Geralt of Rivia “hmmmm”. 

[Lowershoresadness]

36 minutes ago, Benjamn3 said:

In the words of Geralt of Rivia “hmmmm”. 

you spelled Geraldo Rivera wrong

[MDScienceTeacher]

59 minutes ago, Wxdavis5784 said:

It won’t happen because Snowman19 is confused. 

LOL.. 2 meter temp change run to run.  They know who their users are.

[Terpeast]

Good, now lets see if EPS follows, and both hold onto this colder look for 2 more cycles

[CAPE]

10 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Good, now lets see if EPS follows, and both hold onto this colder look for 2 more cycles

6z GEFS didn't really follow up with the colder look. Barely a hint of a coastal low for that period and NA looks more like previous runs. More watching.

[brooklynwx99]

7 minutes ago, CAPE said:

6z GEFS didn't really follow up with the colder look. Barely a hint of a coastal low for that period and NA looks more like previous runs. More watching.

OP runs have been keying in on a wave break into central Canada. this would be a much more interesting look if it retrogrades into NW Canada or Greenland like it has over the last few runs

[mattie g]

14 hours ago, Terpeast said:

CFS shows a literal nina for next year

If this year is 94-95, then maybe next year is 95-96.

[olafminesaw]

Good to see the PNA trend more positive. Would at least get some cold air to this side of the continent