December Mid/Long Range Discussion

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, Ji said:

Here comes that look

Looks way to 1973

[Weather Will]

I have had a horrible month at work so a Christmas miracle would be great....but folks I will say that watching every model run  for changes in two weeks is like watching paint dry, we all need to relax a little, and remember it is going to do what it is going to do regardless....

[psuhoffman]

We have to get the nao negative or that ridge in Canada centered into western Canada. Until one of those two things (preferable both) happen we will struggle. 

[Weather Will]

WB GEFS Day 15 run to run changes headed in the right direction.

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GEFS Day 1 compared to Day 16 seems like we are heading the right direction to me...

[Ji]

Looks way to 1973

lol it’s the first day of the pattern change. Jb is convinced that positive anomaly is moving west

[CAPE]

14 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GEFS Day 1 compared to Day 16 seems like we are heading the right direction to me...

yeah lookin better.

[Ralph Wiggum]

53 minutes ago, Ji said:

Here comes that look

Absolutely uncanny resemblance to that jan-feb 1973 climo chart posted a couple hours ago in this thread. 

[wxdude64]

58 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GEFS not a torch or blizzard for Christmas....and it snows on 2 members....

 

48 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

P7 just this once. All these years of posting these f$&@&$ things and we call out that one…can we get a Christmas miracle and just this one time it’s the one.  

I'll just take P1, P7, P10, P11, P14 or P21, I'm not picky....

[Ralph Wiggum]

Crazy, past couple years we hunt unicorn patterns on the weeklies and lr ens that had epic looks and they didn't materialize. This year the same products show meh and they probably verify. Never seems to work the other way for the better.

[Ralph Wiggum]

47 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Looks way to 1973

Ninja'd lol

[brooklynwx99]

9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Absolutely uncanny resemblance to that jan-feb 1973 climo chart posted a couple hours ago in this thread. 

if the Arctic is that unfavorable for the entire back half of winter, i will be absolutely shocked

[brooklynwx99]

you’re getting towards something better at the end of the 18z GEFS. got a trough undercutting N Canada ridging… you can get a wave break in the ATL and send that ridging towards Greenland. that’s what happens on the OP

[Ji]

Absolutely uncanny resemblance to that jan-feb 1973 climo chart posted a couple hours ago in this thread. 

No other Nino had that look?

[brooklynwx99]

blocking is pretty essential in Ninos and the models usually miss it at range unless it’s a classic pig retrograding Scandi ridge. the STJ undercutting Canadian blocking/ridging is usually how you score. they aren’t Arctic cold patterns, but they work

[Ji]

We have to get the nao negative or that ridge in Canada centered into western Canada. Until one of those two things (preferable both) happen we will struggle. 

This dosent looks as extreme in the high latitudes as that 72-73 image

[ravensrule]

2 hours ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

But wetness in the form of ice crystals is a lot more fun!!!  (Oh, dear, did I just send up the bat signal to RR with that wording???)

Who doesn’t like voluptuous ice cubes. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Man those Euro weeklies/EPS are bad. 

[psuhoffman]

57 minutes ago, Ji said:

lol it’s the first day of the pattern change. Jb is convinced that positive anomaly is moving west

So am I but unlike JB I don’t just assume I have to be right. I’ve been humbled by Mother Nature enough go know not to celebrate until it’s actually happening. We’ve seen step one sneak into day 15 a few times. I feel better when we actually see step 2-3 start progressing into range. 

[psuhoffman]

28 minutes ago, Ji said:

No other Nino had that look?

1992

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

We have to get the nao negative or that ridge in Canada centered into western Canada. Until one of those two things (preferable both) happen we will struggle. 

Yeah, exactly. 

[psuhoffman]

29 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

blocking is pretty essential in Ninos and the models usually miss it at range unless it’s a classic pig retrograding Scandi ridge. the STJ undercutting Canadian blocking/ridging is usually how you score. they aren’t Arctic cold patterns, but they work

Ya and I’m optimistic but some are downplaying the degradation of the nao look on guidance. That’s the key though imo. The equation we need doesn’t work without blocking.  Positive nao ninos are mostly awful. Luckily they are also fairly rare. 

[Daniel Boone]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

So am I but unlike JB I don’t just assume I have to be right. I’ve been humbled by Mother Nature enough go know not to celebrate until it’s actually happening. We’ve seen step one sneak into day 15 a few times. I feel better when we actually see step 2-3 start progressing into range. 

Not a pessimist nor optimist but, a realist 

[psuhoffman]

11 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Man those Euro weeklies/EPS are bad. 

Welcome to 3 pages ago. Let me know when you hear about Elvis. 

[BristowWx]

12 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Man those Euro weeklies/EPS are bad. 

Thank you Art…I know the little lights aren’t twinkling 

[Ji]

1992

[cbmclean]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Welcome to 3 pages ago. Let me know when you hear about Elvis. 

He still lives and no one can tell me any different!!

In other news, a link for the curious to the CPS MJO weekly write-up

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf

Summary: there is a disagreement between the dynamical models which predict the wave dies (potentially due to destructive interference from a CCKW in the Indian Ocean), and the "RMM forecast" which favor continuation of the wave into 7 and beyond.  

Not sure what entity/model is the "RMM forecast" other than the models, but I sure hope they are right.  I've heard many people that the models tend to kill waves too quickly so maybe...

[cbmclean]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

I have had a horrible month at work so a Christmas miracle would be great

Tell your boss that the NAO has degraded on the long range guidance and as a result you need to take a few extra weeks off to watch the models.

[Ji]

I’m desperate for anyone but jb telling me good news. Found this on Twitter

[NorthArlington101]

I’m desperate for anyone but jb telling me good news. Found this on Twitter

Getting weather updates on LinkedIn is pretty sick