December Mid/Long Range Discussion

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

14 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Just checked long range CFS, and it looks like we go right back into a nina with more of the same. And solar will descend, meaning more +NAO.

This year is THE shot we have towards a good-to-great winter. 

Of course it’ll snow in other winters like Jan 2022, but this year is our shot at a blockbuster. We won’t get another shot at this for a while. 

Do you mean it literally shows ENSO trending to a Nina as winter progresses, or that it's becoming "Nina-like" in its behavior?  Or, are you talking about next year, etc.?

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, Deck Pic said:

Every bad winter for us has 100 year events in Myrtle Beach, Houston, Austin and Madrid

I miss weenietown

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Do you mean it literally shows ENSO trending to a Nina as winter progresses, or that it's becoming "Nina-like" in its behavior?  Or, are you talking about next year, etc.?

CFS shows a literal nina for next year

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Just now, Terpeast said:

CFS shows a literal nina for next year

OK, thanks...after I re-read your comment I realized you must be talking about next year and beyond.  Sorry for the confusion on my part.

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah, this year will be a good test case. Agree about grading ninos on a curve, but we will see how much CC shifts the entire curve. Sorry had to mention it.

But I’m not giving up on this winter. Far from it. 

Me either. Just pointing out all the permutations on the table. But for me knowing this is likely our last shot for a while to break out of the snow drought we’re in does raise the stakes. The last few days has been not so good wrt guidance but we have time still. Like I said around New Years is when we will know where this is heading imo. 

[Deck Pic]

95-96 would go on my personal list of banned terms in this forum along with January 25, 2000 and many others.

 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

4 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

didnt you get like 3-4" literally yesterday?

Sometimes, I admit it's honestly gotten difficult to interpret some of the commentary in here and the mood at times.  It's all what expectations are:  is someone looking for an above average snow winter (not necessarily epic, but well above)...are they just looking to at  least end up with better than the last few years with some decent events to track...or do they consider anything that's more than last winter is a win (the ultimate low bar)?  I get that the ENSO state, etc., this year should lead (normally!) to an easily well above normal year for snow with plenty of opportunities.  And if that doesn't happen, maybe on that level it would be a failure.  But on the other hand, what if we end up with, say, something like 2014-15, or 2006-07...or even the "one hit wonder" 2015-16?  Would we all be so upset?  I don't know.

[Terpeast]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Me either. Just pointing out all the permutations on the table. But for me knowing this is likely our last shot for a while to break out of the snow drought we’re in does raise the stakes. The last few days has been not so good wrt guidance but we have time still. Like I said around New Years is when we will know where this is heading imo. 

The good news is that guidance is still doubling down on SSW in a few weeks or so. That may be the thing that shakes things up and gives us more blocking. Just that they’re not picking it up on the mid levels yet

[stormy]

1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Sometimes, I admit it's honestly gotten difficult to interpret some of the commentary in here and the mood at times.  It's all what expectations are:  is someone looking for an above average snow winter (not necessarily epic, but well above)...are they just looking to at  least end up with better than the last few years with some decent events to track...or do they consider anything that's more than last winter is a win (the ultimate low bar)?  I get that the ENSO state, etc., this year should lead (normally!) to an easily well above normal year for snow with plenty of opportunities.  And if that doesn't happen, maybe on that level it would be a failure.  But on the other hand, what if we end up with, say, something like 2014-15, or 2006-07...or even the "one hit wonder" 2015-16?  Would we all be so upset?  I don't know.

 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Me either. Just pointing out all the permutations on the table. But for me knowing this is likely our last shot for a while to break out of the snow drought we’re in does raise the stakes. The last few days has been not so good wrt guidance but we have time still. Like I said around New Years is when we will know where this is heading imo. 

But would we really break out of the "snow drought" if we even get, say, 10-15" or so above normal at the main airport locations?  It would be great for this year of course.  But we all know that we'd need...how many years of +10" departures?...to "level things out."  Not one season.  And "last shot for awhile"...maybe so.  Isn't that what we usually do around here?  I know there are many factors involved, not the least of which is (I'll say it!!) climate change, which alters the overall landscape.

[psuhoffman]

12 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

didnt you get like 3-4" literally yesterday?

I also live on top a mountain and average 40”.   A 20” winter in DC is a really good season. A 20” winter here is a really bad season!  Again I grade things on a curve.   I enjoyed the snow. But that doesn't affect my analysis moving forward. 2 different things. 

[stormy]

I couldn't care less how much snow we receive this winter.  My one reality is that we all need a wet winter considering the drought conditions.

A wet winter is my concern, bring on many warm wet systems!  It would be a Godsend....................

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Just now, stormy said:

I couldn't care less how much snow we receive this winter.  My one reality is that we all need a wet winter considering the drought conditions.

A wet winter is my concern, bring on many warm wet systems!  It would be a Godsend....................

But wetness in the form of ice crystals is a lot more fun!!!  (Oh, dear, did I just send up the bat signal to RR with that wording???)

[Deck Pic]

3 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Sometimes, I admit it's honestly gotten difficult to interpret some of the commentary in here and the mood at times.  It's all what expectations are:  is someone looking for an above average snow winter (not necessarily epic, but well above)...are they just looking to at  least end up with better than the last few years with some decent events to track...or do they consider anything that's more than last winter is a win (the ultimate low bar)?  I get that the ENSO state, etc., this year should lead (normally!) to an easily well above normal year for snow with plenty of opportunities.  And if that doesn't happen, maybe on that level it would be a failure.  But on the other hand, what if we end up with, say, something like 2014-15, or 2006-07...or even the "one hit wonder" 2015-16?  Would we all be so upset?  I don't know.

It took me a stupid long time, but I've realized you can't control expectations when it comes to snow.  The biggest arguments in the history of this forum have surrounded a debate about expectations.  But you'll always find some like-minded people.  It's easier to just align with them. 

Whether one is the deliverer or the deliveree, there is nothing worse than someone upbraiding you for not being happy enough or disappointed enough.  I think the one thing 90%+ of us agree on is you don't root against anyone in forum when it comes to snow.   You only root against people in other forums.

[Deck Pic]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I also live on top a mountain and average 40”.   A 20” winter in DC is a really good season. A 20” winter here is a really bad season!  Again I grade things on a curve.   I enjoyed the snow. But that doesn't affect my analysis moving forward. 2 different things. 

we know

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

But would we really break out of the "snow drought" if we even get, say, 10-15" or so above normal at the main airport locations?  It would be great for this year of course.  But we all know that we'd need...how many years of +10" departures?...to "level things out."  Not one season.  And "last shot for awhile"...maybe so.  Isn't that what we usually do around here?  I know there are many factors involved, not the least of which is (I'll say it!!) climate change, which alters the overall landscape.

Oh I’m not even trying to level things out though. That off the table. Our climo is decreasing and I’ve accepted that. I’m just talking about getting enough snow so that when this year is over we can’t say “it’s been the least snow 8 year stretch ever”. That will take about 30”.  Ya that’s how bad it is!  I don’t think some realize we’re on the precipice of unprecedented territory here. Because all the past somewhat similar snow droughts were bookended by huge epic snow seasons. So right now we’re within a standard deviation of other past snow droughts. But if we don’t get an epic 40” type season in the next couple years we will start to hit snow drought territory that makes all past bad periods pale in comparison. We have to hit a BIG season here soon or it’s gonna get absolutely ridiculous and there will be no argument against the fact our snow climo may have hit a tipping point in a negative way.  I don’t want to accept that yet so I banked on an epic year. Don’t get me wrong it wasn’t all just that. We have a lot in our favor. Basin wide but central leaning Nino. -QBO. Ascending solar. But the were due index is off the charts blinking red with fireworks going off right now!  

[Deck Pic]

6 minutes ago, stormy said:

I couldn't care less how much snow we receive this winter.  My one reality is that we all need a wet winter considering the drought conditions.

A wet winter is my concern, bring on many warm wet systems!  It would be a Godsend....................

I'd take a 5-year famine if it meant getting a 40"+ winter in DC.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Oh I’m not even trying to level things out though. That off the table. Our climo is decreasing and I’ve accepted that. I’m just talking about getting enough snow so that when this year is over we can’t say “it’s been the least snow 8 year stretch ever”. That will take about 30”.  Ya that’s how bad it is!  I don’t think some realize we’re on the precipice of unprecedented territory here. Because all the past somewhat similar snow droughts were bookended by huge epic snow seasons. So right now we’re within a standard deviation of other past snow droughts. But if we don’t get an epic 40” type season in the next couple years we will start to hit snow drought territory that makes all past bad periods pale in comparison. We have to hit a BIG season here soon or it’s gonna get absolutely ridiculous and there will be no argument against the fact our snow climo may have hit a tipping point in a negative way.  I don’t want to accept that yet so I banked on an epic year. Don’t get me wrong it wasn’t all just that. We have a lot in our favor. Basin wide but central leaning Nino. -QBO. Ascending solar. But the were due index is off the charts blinking red with fireworks going off right now!  

Thanks...I see better now what you're saying.  As for the "we're due index!!", unfortunately, as you know, the weather don't give a s**t if we think we're due!  But yeah, I get what you mean about how we wouldn't want this year to end up where we say it's now the worst 8 year period ever, and then possibly be staring down the barrels of yet MORE worst years!  It actually took me a good while living in this area to realize that the "average" snowfall is meaningless...it's a conglomeration of many "meh" to crap years and the occasional blockbuster.  Or, you'd get it all in one or two storms and nothing else.

We definitely don't want this:

[stormy]

6 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

I'd take a 5-year famine if it meant getting a 40"+ winter in DC.

But, a few things you must consider. A 5 year famine would crucify and explode your food prices. It would crucify every living plant or tree on your property. All  for a 40+ winter in D.C.???

[Ji]

I'd take a 5-year famine if it meant getting a 40"+ winter in DC.

Not worth it. 5 enjoyable winter days in 5 years?

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

All this talk of famine and snow...have people been dreaming about 7 fat cows and 7 thin cows all of a sudden?  Going all Biblical here!!! 

[Deck Pic]

3 minutes ago, stormy said:

But, a few things you must consider. A 5 year famine would crucify and explode your food prices. It would crucify every living plant or tree on your property. All  for a 40+ winter in D.C.???

Tradeoff still works for me

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GEFS, looking for a chilly Christmas?  South Florida, Cuba and the Yucatán!

[psuhoffman]

42 minutes ago, stormy said:

But, a few things you must consider. A 5 year famine would crucify and explode your food prices. It would crucify every living plant or tree on your property. All  for a 40+ winter in D.C.???

But…..snow  

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GEFS not a torch or blizzard for Christmas....and it snows on 2 members....

[psuhoffman]

45 minutes ago, Ji said:

Not worth it. 5 enjoyable winter days in 5 years?

He said famine not no precip at all. Maybe we get 3” qpf each year and it’s all snow!!! 

[Jebman]

1 hour ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Thanks...I see better now what you're saying.  As for the "we're due index!!", unfortunately, as you know, the weather don't give a s**t if we think we're due!  But yeah, I get what you mean about how we wouldn't want this year to end up where we say it's now the worst 8 year period ever, and then possibly be staring down the barrels of yet MORE worst years!  It actually took me a good while living in this area to realize that the "average" snowfall is meaningless...it's a conglomeration of many "meh" to crap years and the occasional blockbuster.  Or, you'd get it all in one or two storms and nothing else.

We definitely don't want this:

Correction: Mid Atlantic subforum: LOTS of snow for YOU! It's comin. I am the Unsinkable Molly Brown on Titanic, I say it WILL snow in the Mid Atlantic, and I would have WUBBED that 28 degree water once I ended up in the North Atlantic. I love cold waters, I absolutely WORSHIP snow and frigid -99 degree wind chills and 85mph northeasterly wind gusts, and I do hereby DECLARE Mid Atlantic will have rotating comma heads full of torrential snow that will force catastrophic shutdowns all up and down the Eastern Seaboard, with snow weenies flying all over! There will be tens of millions trapped up and down the I-95 Corridor! I never learn, and I never grow up lmao! I am still pulling for heavy snow and frigid cold in the Mid Atlantic!

I am the one stop shop for all things snow, cold, high winds, one hundred below zero wind chills, life-threatening cold waters and especially life-threatening conditions in places like the northern Bering Sea, Alaskan Mountain ranges, northeastern mountains in the US, and my beloved Sierra Mountains covered with 100 feet of 95mph gusting windblown snows with mountain cornices so fooking dangerous that in Alta they will enforce a four month long Interlodge!

[psuhoffman]

Let’s hope the 18z op gfs has sniffed it out first. At the end it isn’t cold yet, will take a few days to recover, but this is headed to good.  PAC trough has split and once that last piece crashed in we would get a epo pna ridge too! 
 

[Ji]

Here comes that look

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GEFS not a torch or blizzard for Christmas....and it snows on 2 members....

P7 just this once. All these years of posting these f$&@&$ things and we call out that one…can we get a Christmas miracle and just this one time it’s the one.