December Mid/Long Range Discussion

[clskinsfan]

26 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Please join many of us in putting that poster (ldub ) on ignore. Will help your board experience .

Who?

[Ralph Wiggum]

23 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Not sure what 'chill' means. I would assume retracted.

This is extended-

This is retracted-

Ofc it's not this simple. The strength and position of the Aleutian low is influenced by other factors. There is a TPV lobe positioned such that it dumps energy into that vortex, generally keeping it deeper/further east than ideal for our purposes.

 

I noticed that too with the Aleutian low being progged to move into good position then getting adjusted into the GOA on the ens means. What's causing this besides energy feeding in and causing deepening/wobble? PAC jet mostly responsible? 

[vegan_edible]

14 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

For Fuck's sake.

hour 342 on a off hours OP gfs run... idk im not buying in to that specific look right away

[BristowWx]

29 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

hour 342 on a off hours OP gfs run... idk im not buying in to that specific look right away

Anything beyond hr336 is really not likely to verify.  If this look holds at 0z well…then we look at the mesos…336 NAM is gold

[brooklynwx99]

46 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I noticed that too with the Aleutian low being progged to move into good position then getting adjusted into the GOA on the ens means. What's causing this besides energy feeding in and causing deepening/wobble? PAC jet mostly responsible? 

extratropical forcing is leading to a huge momentum pulse from the Pacific jet… a +EAMT, to be exact. models under did the influence of this forcing, but luckily, it’s temporary

[Ji]

This is fuel for the climate change crew lol

[AtlanticWx]

on a side note, how are the 1" stats looking like that we used in november for the state of this winter or whatever

like the we need to reach 1" by this date stats

[Maestrobjwa]

5 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said:

on a side note, how are the 1" stats looking like that we used in november for the state of this winter or whatever

like the we need to reach 1" by this date stats

Hey @psuhoffman! Phone's for you I actually don't remember what the stats were for the first inch coming by Dec. 11th...but he said did record 3.8 inches last night/this morning.

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

For Fuck's sake.

I’ll bet they thought it was a good post 

[psuhoffman]

20 minutes ago, Ji said:

This is fuel for the climate change crew lol

Reality is what it is. It’s been getting warmer. We don’t have to debate why or if it’s our fault since those issues have become politicized. But it’s warmer. That’s just a fact.  It’s not impossible for us to be cold. But it’s harder since at any given moment much less of Earth is cold than it used to be. So the probabilities continue to stack more and more against us. Why is that controversial?  Thermometers seem like a pretty basic concept to me. 

[Maestrobjwa]

14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Reality is what it is. It’s been getting warmer. We don’t have to debate why or if it’s our fault since those issues have become politicized. But it’s warmer. That’s just a fact.  It’s not impossible for us to be cold. But it’s harder since at any given moment much less of Earth is cold than it used to be. So the probabilities continue to stack more and more against us. Why is that controversial?  Thermometers seem like a pretty basic concept to me. 

I don't know whether it's controversial, but rather, uncomfortable. A "controversial" reaction seems more like emotion to me! We all have uncomfortable things we either don't want to/aren't ready to accept. And there's mental resistance/negative reaction when seeing said realities.  All the reaction is stemming from that place of not wanting it to be true, and the emotions tend to outweigh the logical side of things in conversation because of it. Psychologically, we don't tend to enjoy seeing a reality that points to getting less of something you get joy out of.

So yeah, logically, it's getting warmer. But I challenge ya to find any snow lover that doesn't feel a certain way about that, lol Some handle it better than others!

[cbmclean]

59 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

extratropical forcing is leading to a huge momentum pulse from the Pacific jet… a +EAMT, to be exact. models under did the influence of this forcing, but luckily, it’s temporary

I think I may have read something about how stout +EAMT events can help destabilize the PV.  Anyone else ever hear of that?

[Eskimo Joe]

52 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Reality is what it is. It’s been getting warmer. We don’t have to debate why or if it’s our fault since those issues have become politicized. But it’s warmer. That’s just a fact.  It’s not impossible for us to be cold. But it’s harder since at any given moment much less of Earth is cold than it used to be. So the probabilities continue to stack more and more against us. Why is that controversial?  Thermometers seem like a pretty basic concept to me. 

Because it means we have to change our ways. At the end of the day, the average American is is either indifferent or rooting for CC because they think it means less snow and inconvenience of being cold. They are willfully ignorant and they are the majority. Too hot in the summer, turn the AC on more. Can't afford an AC, oh well. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[DarkSharkWX]

16 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I think I may have read something about how stout +EAMT events can help destabilize the PV.  Anyone else ever hear of that?

are you referencing aleutian lows putting pressure on the SPV bc those are typically caused by jet extensions

although +EAMT classic evolution is one that builds HP over the Urals that becomes advected eastward to be in E/SE Asia, therefore causing an +EAMT event so it could also be that? idk fs tho

[uncletim]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Reality is what it is. It’s been getting warmer. We don’t have to debate why or if it’s our fault since those issues have become politicized. But it’s warmer. That’s just a fact.  It’s not impossible for us to be cold. But it’s harder since at any given moment much less of Earth is cold than it used to be. So the probabilities continue to stack more and more against us. Why is that controversial?  Thermometers seem like a pretty basic concept to me. 

This. With my very uneducated eyes, I see this again and again on the global temp anomaly maps; the locations may shift around, but the ratio of red to blue remains the same. Even more depressing is that the anomalies are defined by only the last 30 (already warm) years, if I understand correctly. If I am wrong, please say so - it will give me some hope!

[Blizzard of 93]

The 18z GEFS has a workable looking pattern at the end of its run on 12/27.

[pazzo83]

2 hours ago, Ji said:

This is fuel for the climate change crew lol

the progged warmth (relative obviously) in northern Russia into the Arctic - yikes.

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, DarkSharkWX said:

are you referencing aleutian lows putting pressure on the SPV bc those are typically caused by jet extensions

although +EAMT classic evolution is one that builds HP over the Urals that becomes advected eastward to be in E/SE Asia, therefore causing an +EAMT event so it could also be that? idk fs tho

I’m no expert, but it could be that powerful jet extensions are self limiting and eventually break down. They can’t keep on this fast and strong forever, otherwise the laws of physics would be broken

[brooklynwx99]

32 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

the progged warmth (relative obviously) in northern Russia into the Arctic - yikes.

there is cold, it’s just over the ocean so the anoms aren’t as strong. pretty awful looking maps though

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

there is cold, it’s just over the ocean so the anoms aren’t as strong. pretty awful looking maps though

Yeah, and even if siberia is +15, it’s still extremely cold there. 

[midatlanticweather]

i predict a model flip psych out soon. Lucy football situation

[Jebman]

It's gonna get better. You will see. This is going to be an incredible snow winter.

Don't forget! PSU did not get an inch of snow.

He got shellacked with 4 INCHES of snow!

You guys are gonna get utterly obliterated by snow this winter.

We ain't gonna be punting nothing! We are going to be kicking back in deep snow. There are not going to be any Lucy situations either! We are going to be telling our grandkids about the deep snow this winter.

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z... another drought denting storm potential inside a week.  If this pattern continues we will get a snowstorm eventually.... patience.

[Blizzard of 93]

The end of the 0z EPS looks encouraging with the ridge moving back into central Canada. The trough is beginning to undercut from the southwest to the south central states. The trough in the Atlantic is reaching back towards the southeast coast & appears to be getting ready to link up with the trough extending to the south central states if the run went out a couple of more days.

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The end of the 0z EPS looks encouraging with the ridge moving back into central Canada. The trough is beginning to undercut from the southwest to the south central states. The trough in the Atlantic is reaching back towards the southeast coast & appears to be getting ready to link up with the trough extending to the south central states if the run went out a couple of more days.

Still think we r struggling with a cold air source with this jet configuration. The central Canada ridge you noted is actually not helping matters much.

 

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Still think we r struggling with a cold air source with this jet configuration. 

 

the jet has retracted pretty handily by this point, which is nice to see

[Ralph Wiggum]

24 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the jet has retracted pretty handily by this point, which is nice to see

Gotta start somewhere so we take. Hope the pac retract holds as we move closer.

[psuhoffman]

A couple days ago I pointed out how the long range guidance had lost the really good look for the last week of December.  Since then the extended long range guidance took a significant step in the wrong direction for the first week of January too.

This is just an observation.  Right or wrong sticking our head in the sand about it won’t change anything.  I’m still hopeful but it seems it’s as much the Atlantic side that’s the issue…guidance is shifting to a less favorable nao look which requires an even better pacific. 2003 for example the nao wasn’t great but the pacific was perfect so it didn’t matter. The really good looks on long range guidance a week ago were a product of a decent pacific coupled with a great Atlantic look.  The problem is both those equations keep shifting the wrong way as we get closer.  No prediction here pure observation.  I need another week to ingest this and decide if I think it’s just a slower progression or an actual seasonal problem.

Both gefs and eps for early January. 
72 hours ago 

Latest runs 

[psuhoffman]

You could even argue the pac side looks slightly better…the problem is the flip to a -nao keeps getting delayed. 

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

A couple days ago I pointed out how the long range guidance had lost the really good look for the last week of December.  Since then the extended long range guidance took a significant step in the wrong direction for the first week of January too.

This is just an observation.  Right or wrong sticking our head in the sand about it won’t change anything.  I’m still hopeful but it seems it’s as much the Atlantic side that’s the issue…guidance is shifting to a less favorable nao look which requires an even better pacific. 2003 for example the nao wasn’t great but the pacific was perfect so it didn’t matter. The really good looks on long range guidance a week ago were a product of a decent pacific coupled with a great Atlantic look.  The problem is both those equations keep shifting the wrong way as we get closer.  No prediction here pure observation.  I need another week to ingest this and decide if I think it’s just a slower progression or an actual seasonal problem.

Both gefs and eps for early January. 
72 hours ago 

Latest runs 

seems to be a slower progression. modeling underdid how strong the Pacific jet would get since they underestimated the +EAMT event. they corrected, and they still look good once the jet retracts. it's just backed up a bit. wouldn't worry too much about it

also, given how weak the SPV is going to get (could even see a SSW), we should see more blocking, especially late Jan into Feb