brooklynwx99 Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 35 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I'm just hoping the can kicking stops. I think we get into a good pattern in January but it is getting can kicked a bit. A week ago we were looking at the week Betwen Christmas and New Years. Now it's spilling into the first of the year And it will take a week or 2 to get temps right once we get a better pattern. We can certainly luck into something but it makes it tougher . it isn't getting kicked for some nebulous reason like it does for the truly shitty winters. there was a jet extension modeled that usually promotes a +PNA and sometimes a -EPO, but there was extratropical forcing that led to the jet becoming way too strong. luckily, that is a temporary factor, and the pattern likely becomes more favorable into early Jan as the jet inevitably retracts somewhat. it's like a delay of a week or so, most likely, and it's for a well defined reason 11 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 speaking of, the weak SPV will help with overextension concerns and should bully the jet to retract back eventually, but i would be skeptical of pattern changes too quickly as models may be running through them too quickly w that being said, we will def progress eventually, my bet is early-mid jan; remember nino winters really start in the EC after MLK day 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 I don’t think the end of the EPS was that bad. I thought it took a step finally. I’ll be interested in what the weeklies show as its extension today, just for fun lol. ideally we want a -nao and to get that pac trough to retro a bit to get that ridge (x) back closer to an axis along Idaho. But this is closer. The highest heights are no longer right on top of us. Yea there is no arctic air but that’s par for a Nino. Look at the flow. The Canada ridge is pulling back enough to get a flow we can work with. I could see something working within that framework. It’s not as bad as the last few runs imo. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I don’t think the end of the EPS was that bad. I thought it took a step finally. I’ll be interested in what the weeklies show as its extension today, just for fun lol. ideally we want a -nao and to get that pac trough to retro a bit to get that ridge (x) back closer to an axis along Idaho. But this is closer. The highest heights are no longer right on top of us. Yea there is no arctic air but that’s par for a Nino. Look at the flow. The Canada ridge is pulling back enough to get a flow we can work with. I could see something working within that framework. It’s not as bad as the last few runs imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 11, 2023 Author Share Posted December 11, 2023 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I don’t think the end of the EPS was that bad. I thought it took a step finally. I’ll be interested in what the weeklies show as its extension today, just for fun lol. ideally we want a -nao and to get that pac trough to retro a bit to get that ridge (x) back closer to an axis along Idaho. But this is closer. The highest heights are no longer right on top of us. Yea there is no arctic air but that’s par for a Nino. Look at the flow. The Canada ridge is pulling back enough to get a flow we can work with. I could see something working within that framework. It’s not as bad as the last few runs imo. Compare the similar time on the last 4 GEFS runs. All the major features are the same, but subtle placement differences can vary my impression of it from: blech to pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Compare the similar time on the last 4 GEFS runs. All the major features are the same, but subtle placement differences can vary my impression of it from: blech to pretty good. If the pac jet relaxes just a bit it would solve pretty much all the problems. Those other imperfections wouldn’t matter much if you retrograde everything out west 5-10 degrees. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 If you loop the last 48 hours on the gefs and geps you can see positive progress happening. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 Euro is interesting...it delays the big gulf storm and allows some fresh cold air to get into the our area. the gulf storm eventually goes to sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: If you loop the last 48 hours on the gefs and geps you can see positive progress happening. you can see the jet retraction happening here. good to see models showing this, as it would lead to more of a typical Aleutian LP rather than a rogue super GoA low 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: you can see the jet retraction happening here. good to see models showing this, as it would lead to more of a typical Aleutian LP rather than a rogue super GoA low The actual main vortex is placed fine, the problem is the pac jet on roids is blasting off pieces of it and crashing them into the pacific NW. That’s different from more cutoff STJ systems coming into southern CA. Once (if) the pac jet relaxes just a wee bit (it’s a technical term) the whole pattern would fix itself relatively quick imo. It might take a week to get cold air (or colder I don’t expect arctic air) established. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamn3 Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: If you loop the last 48 hours on the gefs and geps you can see positive progress happening. I noticed that as well when I was checking the 12z on lunch. The last three runs have dropped temps about 10 degrees in my neck of the woods. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 Update to my outlook (no change) 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 One thing this board has always been known for is that everyone has an abundance of patience. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 34 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: One thing this board has always been known for is that everyone has an abundance of patience. Patience? Nah Patients? Absolutely 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 Are there any signals out there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 37 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Are there any signals out there? yes we have a very strong signal for a non white Christmas 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 2 hours ago, Ji said: Euro is interesting...it delays the big gulf storm and allows some fresh cold air to get into the our area. the gulf storm eventually goes to sea WB 12Z EPS....worth watching... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 2 hours ago, aldie 22 said: One thing this board has always been known for is that everyone has an abundance of patience. An abundance of patience? Yeah, perhaps...especially after the past decade or so. An abundance of (wide ranging, extremist) opinions? Absolutely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 52 minutes ago, Ji said: yes we have a very strong signal for a non white Christmas Evergreen post 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 18 z GFS caves to the ECM. I begin to worry everytime this happens. A wet winter is what we need. This is not a step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 Seems there are some misconceptions about the Pacific jet, extensions/retractions, ENSO... and what to 'root' for. This might be a good read for some. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/what-we-talk-about-when-we-talk-about-jet-stream-and-el-nino 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 1 hour ago, Ji said: yes we have a very strong signal for a non white Christmas No political posts allowed on the weather side 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 8 minutes ago, CAPE said: Seems there are some misconceptions about the Pacific jet, extensions/retractions, ENSO... and what to 'root' for. This might be a good read for some. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/what-we-talk-about-when-we-talk-about-jet-stream-and-el-nino Maybe this is just semantics. I dunno. A jet extension is fine. A record fast jet extension is too much of a good thing and shifts the whole pattern east which floods us with maritime pac air and doesn’t allow for a northerly flow until too far east to mix enough continental polar air into the equation. The issue is some (who might not really know the nuances of what they speak) are just saying “the jet extension” without the necessary context. What we want is the pac jet to chill just a bit. That’s all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 Late Dec and this model is showing rain in North Dakota to the cold NW side of a low. 1/3rd of winter is gone at this point. 1 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 Late Dec and this model is showing rain in North Dakota to the cold NW side of a low. 1/3rd of winter is gone at this point. Winter hasnt even started yet???. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 Latest from WB; JMA holds firm for east coast winter pattern Jan and Feb. Its forecast for a warm Dec verified. JB says transition by Dec. 30th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 Please join many of us in putting that poster (ldub ) on ignore. Will help your board experience . 2 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 Not sure what 'chill' means. I would assume retracted. This is extended- This is retracted- Ofc it's not this simple. The strength and position of the Aleutian low is influenced by other factors. There is a TPV lobe positioned such that it dumps energy into that vortex, generally keeping it deeper/further east than ideal for our purposes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 12, 2023 Share Posted December 12, 2023 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Maybe this is just semantics. I dunno. A jet extension is fine. A record fast jet extension is too much of a good thing and shifts the whole pattern east which floods us with maritime pac air and doesn’t allow for a northerly flow until too far east to mix enough continental polar air into the equation. The issue is some (who might not really know the nuances of what they speak) are just saying “the jet extension” without the necessary context. What we want is the pac jet to chill just a bit. That’s all. It would be a good study to see how recent-year Nino jet extension tendencies compare to similar enso episodes from past climatology. Ie, are recent Ninos more persistent and stronger with the extension than the past? Are we seeing less of a likelihood to see pac jet retraction in a Nino due to certain climate conditions that may have changed? Genuinely curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 12, 2023 Share Posted December 12, 2023 49 minutes ago, ldub23 said: Late Dec and this model is showing rain in North Dakota to the cold NW side of a low. 1/3rd of winter is gone at this point. For Fuck's sake. 4 4 18 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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