December Mid/Long Range Discussion

[Eskimo Joe]

11 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z EURO and GFS for Wed. Am.  Let's see which model is closer esp. inside the DC beltway.

GFS seems to have the UHI modeled better.

[Jebman]

4 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Baltimore bullseye — what could go wrong?

In all seriousness though… the longwave pattern is trending in a great direction for early to mid December. The -NAO seems like a lock at this point being only 4-5 days away. Very intrigued by the recent development of some models showing the AO tanking and staying negative for most of December. Couple that with a workable PAC (HUH!?), and we WILL cash in. There may not be a significant storm to kick off December, but I think we’d all welcome a nice 3-6” type event to kick things off. Have a feeling those of us who are well inland could even see a warning level snowfall before Dec. 15th if the advertised h5 pattern on ensembles holds firm.

We should all know better than to live and die by OP runs 7+ days out - particularly the clown maps. I’m sure one of the OP GFS runs tomorrow will show a flush hit. Folks are going to drive themselves nuts living and dying by run to run 10:1 snow maps on OP runs.

Watch the trends, not the clown maps. This will be the best winter we’ve had in 7+ years. That much is becoming crystal clear. Even if that bar is low, it excites the bajesus outta me.

We have a winnah.

[Jebman]

28 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

If you want to see snow turn the  kansas state  game on now  on Fox

Its blasting them so hard it looks like Palisades Tahoe last January.

[Eskimo Joe]

57 minutes ago, Jebman said:

Mid Atlantic is going to get obliterated by snow. 

Are you okay?

[Jebman]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Are you okay?

I'm fine.

Just saying, this is going to be a memorable winter for snow in the entire Washington Metropolitan Region. Things are on track.

[Maestrobjwa]

17 minutes ago, jayyy said:

We should all know better than to live and die by OP runs 7+ days out - particularly the clown maps. I’m sure one of the OP GFS runs tomorrow will show a flush hit. Folks are going to drive themselves nuts living and dying by run to run 10:1 snow maps on OP runs.

Watch the trends, not the clown maps.

THIS. This needs to be pinned at the top of every thread... You're right, unless you're new to this hobby, we SHOULD know better. And yet...what have seen just today? Why people, especially those who have been on this site for years do not learn this lesson even after all this time is beyond me. Fantasy range is just that...fantasy. Any specific threat you see, be it a hit or a miss...!t that point it's not real, y'all. Jist tell yourself...it's not real, lol Fantasy is good for showing how things COULD work in a certain pattern, but never can be a forecast in that range.

 

End mini-rant

[SnowenOutThere]

47 minutes ago, paulythegun said:

Offshore wind platforms are causing this!

A very reputable source told me it was the old underwater volcanoes at it again. 

[WesternFringe]

1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

If you want to see snow turn the  kansas state  game on now  on Fox

Been excited about this game since this morning!  I scan radar for snow, look at models, and then whether there are football games scheduled inside the precip shield.

A few years ago, a buddy of mine and I created an algorithm that looks at GPS text output by hour (specifically the qpf field and the 850 temp field) and then cross-referenced the NFL schedule to alert us for snow games.

Tonight’s game looks like it will rank an 7 or 8 out of 10 on our snow game rating scale 

 

 

[psuhoffman]

I can agree to just ignore certain people/posts this year if yall can! 

[clskinsfan]

50 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I can agree to just ignore certain people/posts this year if yall can! 

[pazzo83]

4 hours ago, stormy said:

You are obviously a neophyte.  Since you profess to be an expert, challenge the ECMWF .   What are your QP predictions for the next 15 days??? I don't want a bunch of crap. I want detailed QP for the entire region for the next 15 days!   Come on , give it to me. You can't' , so chill out.

Ideally,   reasonable people express reasonable ideas on this site.  Unreasonable crap needs to die.  More and more supporters are getting disillusioned.

what an embarrassing post this is.

[stormtracker]

5 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

No matter how long of a break you take from here, nothing changes. Not.one.thing. 

We’re getting the band back together. 

[Maestrobjwa]

9 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

We’re getting the band back together. 

Don't you mean the orchestra? 

[Solution Man]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Don't you mean the orchestra? 

The Rap band

[jayyy]

THIS. This needs to be pinned at the top of every thread... You're right, unless you're new to this hobby, we SHOULD know better. And yet...what have seen just today? Why people, especially those who have been on this site for years do not learn this lesson even after all this time is beyond me. Fantasy range is just that...fantasy. Any specific threat you see, be it a hit or a miss...!t that point it's not real, y'all. Jist tell yourself...it's not real, lol Fantasy is good for showing how things COULD work in a certain pattern, but never can be a forecast in that range.
 
End mini-rant

I can certainly understand why some folks are skeptical, pessimistic, sour, etc. We’ve been burned time and time again over the past 7 years. Besides one winter where extreme N MD did well, the past 7 years have sucked.

HOWEVER… we spent majority of those years hoping we could thread the smallest needle. That we’d get a snowstorm during a somewhat workable window in what was an otherwise trash longwave pattern - particularly the god awful PAC situation thanks to a persisting la niña, among other factors such as a SER that always seemed to win out. For every positive we had, there were multiple negatives working against us. People clowned on PSU for being a realist when he’d say “hey, I know this looks good, but here’s why it could fail”. As it turned out, he was right pretty much every single time.

We are in a completely different situation this time around. CAPE, PSU, Brooklyn and many others have taken the time to thoroughly explain the reasons why this winter’s overall pattern is vastly different than years past. Does it mean we’ll see an 09-10 type winter? No. Maybe we do get extremely unlucky again. Wouldn’t be the first niño to fail and it certainly wouldn’t be the last. But the weather doesn’t give a crap about our feelings. At the end of the day, science is the name of the game. It is and always will be the driving force behind our outcomes - good and bad.

All we can do is analyze what we have in front of us and take it week by week. There are so many tools at our disposal and there is a wealth of knowledge on this forum after you sift through the BS. One of those tools should NOT be operational model clown maps 10-15 days out. If you are already souring on winter because the 18z GFS lost 10 inches of digital snow 300+ hours out, you’re doing it all wrong.

This is, without a doubt, the best chance we’ve had in years to see some legitimate snowfall. This is the first time in nearly a decade that we will get to analyze the impact of GW on our winter climo during what *SHOULD BE* a snowy season.

If we happen to see a +PNA -NAO - AO regime fail us in the midst of El Niño, then we can all move on over to the panic room. For now, we wait patiently. Have a good feeling that our patience (if you can call it that) will finally be rewarded.

[ravensrule]

2 hours ago, stormtracker said:

We’re getting the band back together. 

I have been playing with my flute in anticipation. 

[Bob Chill]

6 hours ago, stormtracker said:

We’re getting the band back together. 

238 miles to Rockville. Got a full tank of diesel, half pack of blunts, and wearing visine at night. See ya in 3 hours

[winter_warlock]

7 hours ago, stormtracker said:

We’re getting the band back together. 

  Must be why i hear a banjo playing lol

[winter_warlock]

6 hours ago, jayyy said:

I can certainly understand why some folks are skeptical, pessimistic, sour, etc. We’ve been burned time and time again over the past 7 years. Besides one winter where extreme N MD did well, the past 7 years have sucked.

HOWEVER… we spent majority of those years hoping we could thread the smallest needle. That we’d get a snowstorm during a somewhat workable window in what was an otherwise trash longwave pattern - particularly the god awful PAC situation thanks to a persisting la niña, among other factors such as a SER that always seemed to win out. For every positive we had, there were multiple negatives working against us. People clowned on PSU for being a realist when he’d say “hey, I know this looks good, but here’s why it could fail”. As it turned out, he was right pretty much every single time.

We are in a completely different situation this time around. CAPE, PSU, Brooklyn and many others have taken the time to thoroughly explain the reasons why this winter’s overall pattern is vastly different than years past. Does it mean we’ll see an 09-10 type winter? No. Maybe we do get extremely unlucky again. Wouldn’t be the first niño to fail and it certainly wouldn’t be the last. But the weather doesn’t give a crap about our feelings. At the end of the day, science is the name of the game. It is and always will be the driving force behind our outcomes - good and bad.

All we can do is analyze what we have in front of us and take it week by week. There are so many tools at our disposal and there is a wealth of knowledge on this forum after you sift through the BS. One of those tools should NOT be operational model clown maps 10-15 days out. If you are already souring on winter because the 18z GFS lost 10 inches of digital snow 300+ hours out, you’re doing it all wrong.

This is, without a doubt, the best chance we’ve had in years to see some legitimate snowfall. This is the first time in nearly a decade that we will get to analyze the impact of GW on our winter climo during what *SHOULD BE* a snowy season.

If we happen to see a +PNA -NAO - AO regime fail us in the midst of El Niño, then we can all move on over to the panic room. For now, we wait patiently. Have a good feeling that our patience (if you can call it that) will finally be rewarded.

Very good post!!!

[Amorphous Iodine]

12 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

No matter how long of a break you take from here, nothing changes. Not.one.thing. 

If you could change one thing, what would it be? 

[WxUSAF]

One important detail to note about this upcoming -NAO dominated pattern. The -PNA that’s also coming later this week and weekend is going to really scour out all the cold air on the continent. And that takes some time to regenerate in situ. So you see a gorgeous H5 pattern on the ensembles like this on and after the 6th or 7th and think we’re back to frigid temps and …nah. 

[CAPE]

Just a reminder for those who feel the can is being kicked- the degradation of the pattern on the pacific side has been consistently forecast and will result in a milder period for early December as the EPO goes positive with a -PNA, and despite the impressive -NAO being depicted on guidance. This period still looks to be pretty brief. A storm around the 5-6th should mark the transition, with colder air advancing southeastward behind it. The period beyond the 6th holds more potential for something wintry as the thermal boundary should be near/south of our region.

[CAPE]

@WxUSAF kinda just ninja'd me by about 2 seconds lol

[WxUSAF]

7 minutes ago, CAPE said:

@WxUSAF kinda just ninja'd me by about 2 seconds lol

On the same page. After the 6th or so we’re at least back “in the game” for something wintry if things align right. That’s about as good as we get usually and especially in December compared to recent years. Hopefully we can time something up.

[Bob Chill]

22 minutes ago, Amorphous Iodine said:

If you could change one thing, what would it be? 

DM stormtracker and tell him to give me the ctrl-alt-del button on my mini mod panel. 10 seconds and it's all fixed! Lol

 

Jokes aside, human emotional control (of lack thereof) and how it transforms quality discussion into a trench fight has me turned off probably permamently. Some of it is 100% deliberate and some of it is the oil/water nature of group interactions when there is no personal recourse or consequences (other than a ban but that does nothing to fix the global problem way beyond AMWX). 

I behave identical online and in person. What you see is what you get. There is a core crew here I love who are aligned but things have changed and my tank filled up nearly 2 years ago. It just wasn't fun anymore. It became tiresome. 

People have become extremely centric and inflexible online in general. My way or highway! Lol. Add in bro-science, conspiracies, ànd persuasive morons leading sheep and it gets REALLY hard to have quality interactions that include facts and other people's points of view. Rational discussion, willingness to seriously consider another's views, and ability to concede or compromise is just about gone from social media. People have much more fun interacting with emotions and drama. For many, its the only reason to engage. Emotional control is something I hold in high standards. If you want to gain knowledge and explore ideas and concepts properly, you need to listen to everything and contemplate. Not knee jerk spew garbage cuz you don't agree or your feelings are dented. Unfortunately there is no fix because the majority doesn't want to "fix things". They like stirring and prodding and poking for entertainment. I can't do that anymore. 

[CAPE]

3 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

On the same page. After the 6th or so we’re at least back “in the game” for something wintry if things align right. That’s about as good as we get usually and especially in December compared to recent years. Hopefully we can time something up.

It still looks like around the 10th on the means for colder than avg temps to work to the east coast after the mild period. It could come on the heels of another storm that tracks to our NW. Pretty typical esp in early winter to progressively step the temps down behind multiple systems. Then we hope for that well timed wave.

[brooklynwx99]

still a very nice look once into early-mid month. strong -NAO, ridging showing up into AK, and a deep E US trough. not the coldest, as has been discussed, but this can certainly get it done

[brooklynwx99]

the Pacific really is night and day from last year. great to see

[weatherCCB]

10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

DM stormtracker and tell him to give me the ctrl-alt-del button on my mini mod panel. 10 seconds and it's all fixed! Lol

 

Jokes aside, human emotional control (of lack thereof) and how it transforms quality discussion into a trench fight has me turned off probably permamently. Some of it is 100% deliberate and some of it is the oil/water nature of group interactions when there is no personal recourse or consequences (other than a ban but that does nothing to fix the global problem way beyond AMWX). 

I behave identical online and in person. What you see is what you get. There is a core crew here I love who are aligned but things have changed and my tank filled up nearly 2 years ago. It just wasn't fun anymore. It became tiresome. 

People have become extremely centric and inflexible online in general. My way or highway! Lol. Add in bro-science, conspiracies, ànd persuasive morons leading sheep and it gets REALLY hard to have quality interactions that include facts and other people's points of view. Rational discussion, willingness to seriously consider another's views, and ability to concede or compromise is just about gone from social media. People have much more fun interacting with emotions and drama. For many, its the only reason to engage. Emotional control is something I hold in high standards. If you want to gain knowledge and explore ideas and concepts properly, you need to listen to everything and contemplate. Not knee jerk spew garbage cuz you don't agree or your feelings are dented. Unfortunately there is no fix because the majority doesn't want to "fix things". They like stirring and prodding and poking for entertainment. I can't do that anymore. 

Well said Bob, and spot on

Ive lurked here for years and very rarely comment , except for obs. 
Just don’t have the desire for all the bs and drama on here. I know who to read and whom to ignore.  

 

[snowfan]

5 hours ago, ravensrule said:

I have been playing with my flute in anticipation. 

As Bob wrote, no matter how long you stay away from here nothing changes. Here’s a good example kids.