December Mid/Long Range Discussion

[CAPE]

20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

Day 15 the eps is showing signs of the first wave break in the Atlantic that we need. It’s a step process. But once the pacific low retrogrades given the weak tpv imo it’s just a matter of time and wave breaks to get the Atlantic where we need. 

Agree with this. I think we will see episodes of a favorable NA, of the variety more like 2016 than 2009-10, which developed early via a Scandi/EPO ridge bridge, and was impressively sustained.

[CAPE]

This would work. A bit east based but this is a 7 day h5 anomaly- it does evolve to a Baffin block for a time. Again, my wag is we see relatively short lived negative NAO episodes, but good enough with the persistent STJ tossing waves our way. Surely we can time something.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

One thing I have noticed is our tendency for -NAO around Christmas since 2017, in the midst of a pretty +NAO time. Here's +1-3 days from 12/25 since 2017:

https://ibb.co/nw0L2D6

[stormy]

The GFS finds the 17 storm with 8 inches for the Central Valley. More of an inland runner with mostly rain east of BR.

I don't like the Superior LP..........................

[ldub23]

Hopefully this  is the  pattern change

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

599dm SE of Greenland! That has to be a record

The SE usually averages BN in such a pattern.  It's called a south-based -NAO (one of 6 major patterns in the N. Hemisphere).  

[Stormchaserchuck1]

West of the 1058mb High in the Davis Straight is rain lol

[Kevin Reilly]

53 minutes ago, stormy said:

The GFS finds the 17 storm with 8 inches for the Central Valley. More of an inland runner with mostly rain east of BR.

I don't like the Superior LP..........................

Yes, I too wonder if this is the signal for the pattern change, but I have not really seen a 978 parked over Wilmington Delaware.  I wonder if this storm is a tad further east and a storm that strong man 978 would manufacture its own cold air and there is cold air crashing southeast, so I am interested in that storm.  

[stormy]

30 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Yes, I too wonder if this is the signal for the pattern change, but I have not really seen a 978 parked over Wilmington Delaware.  I wonder if this storm is a tad further east and a storm that strong man 978 would manufacture its own cold air and there is cold air crashing southeast, so I am interested in that storm.  

This could  be a classic noreaster. Tomorrow is a mess........................

[psuhoffman]

Unfortunately there has been significant can kicking going on. This was the week leading up to New Years 6 days ago on the euro weeklies. 

and now 

I’m still confident in the pattern evolution. I thought it was rushed all along. Why I never said much of anything about Xmas to New Years, kinda suspected it would be January before things get good. But the pattern change has been getting pushed back for a week now. It’s been sitting just outside the ensembles on the gfs and euro extended for like 8 days and failed to progress. If this doesn’t change in about 5 days then I’ll start to get concerned. 2019 guidance did this regularly. At range it wanted to evolve to a canonical nino look in error. By next week I’d like evidence this time is different. I think it is but I’ll feel a lot better when it’s progressing in real time and not just a long range fantasy. 

[anotherman]

Unfortunately there has been significant can kicking going on. This was the week leading up to New Years 6 days ago on the euro weeklies. 

and now 

I’m still confident in the pattern evolution. I thought it was rushed all along. Why I never said much of anything about Xmas to New Years, kinda suspected it would be January before things get good. But the pattern change has been getting pushed back for a week now. It’s been sitting just outside the ensembles on the gfs and euro extended for like 8 days and failed to progress. If this doesn’t change in about 5 days then I’ll start to get concerned. 2019 guidance did this regularly. At range it wanted to evolve to a canonical nino look in error. By next week I’d like evidence this time is different. I think it is but I’ll feel a lot better when it’s progressing in real time and not just a long range fantasy. 

[WxUSAF]

I think the end of the EPS looks notably better than what that weekly plot shows.

 

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GEFS looks better than EURO...

[nj2va]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I think the end of the EPS looks notably better than what that weekly plot shows.

 

Yeah, 100% agree.  I don’t see any can kicking honestly.  

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Yeah, 100% agree.  I don’t see any can kicking honestly.  

The mjo entry into 7 got can kicked though, maybe that’s why the weeklies are showing what they’re showing now. But it’s still early and no need to get concerned unless we pass xmas and the models keep pushing the pattern change back

[nj2va]

4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

The mjo entry into 7 got can kicked though, maybe that’s why the weeklies are showing what they’re showing now. But it’s still early and no need to get concerned unless we pass xmas and the models keep pushing the pattern change back

Meh, too much time spent looking at uber LR models IMO.  Look at Monday - sort of popped up out of nowhere when we were led to believe December is being written off.  Yeah, it’s not a 6-8” storm, but early on in climo, I’m excited we have something to track.  YMMV.

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Meh, too much time spent looking at uber LR models IMO.  Look at Monday - sort of popped up out of nowhere when we were led to believe December is being written off.  Yeah, it’s not a 6-8” storm, but early on in climo, I’m excited we have something to track.  YMMV.

It would be a big win to get an inch on the board in the middle of a lousy pattern early on!

[Weather Will]

Does anyone know which model forecasts MJO the best?  They are all over the place.

[CAPE]

20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Unfortunately there has been significant can kicking going on. This was the week leading up to New Years 6 days ago on the euro weeklies. 

and now 

I’m still confident in the pattern evolution. I thought it was rushed all along. Why I never said much of anything about Xmas to New Years, kinda suspected it would be January before things get good. But the pattern change has been getting pushed back for a week now. It’s been sitting just outside the ensembles on the gfs and euro extended for like 8 days and failed to progress. If this doesn’t change in about 5 days then I’ll start to get concerned. 2019 guidance did this regularly. At range it wanted to evolve to a canonical nino look in error. By next week I’d like evidence this time is different. I think it is but I’ll feel a lot better when it’s progressing in real time and not just a long range fantasy. 

I don't see significant can kicking at all. First, consider that this is an extended tool. In the first case we are looking out to day 29, in the second day 23. Given the smoothing in the features with time on the extended guidance, the looks seem pretty similar. In addition, there is subjective interpretation. I might think the run initializing on the 9th looks a little better in the NA for example.

[psuhoffman]

23 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I think the end of the EPS looks notably better than what that weekly plot shows.

 

It does. I liked the end of today’s EPS. It was a notable positive shift from 0z which the weeklies are based on. So there is that. As I said I’m not worried at all YET but for full disclosure there has been can kicking this last week. That was my only point not trying to start panic, although it seems anytime I make an analytical point that doesn’t imply 1996 or 2010 is imminent that’s what tends to happen. 

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I don't see significant can kicking at all. First, consider that this is an extended tool. In the first case we are looking out to day 29, in the second day 23. Given the smoothing in the features with time on the extended guidance, the looks seem pretty similar. In addition, there is subjective interpretation. I might think the run initializing on the 9th looks a little better in the NA for example.

If you have access look at the last run of the weeklies and GEFS ext at 360 and then go back day to day about 10 days and see what it looked like before and how it slowly degraded over time.  You can do that with hour 300 also. IMO it’s definitely can kicking.  It’s not so much on the pac side although it has slowed the retrogression some but more the Atlantic that’s taking longer to get right. 
 

But I feel like everyone also is ignoring this part of my post 

“I’m still confident in the pattern evolution. I thought it was rushed all along. Why I never said much of anything about Xmas to New Years, kinda suspected it would be January before things get good.”

For whatever reason whenever I make a nuanced post it feels like the positives get ignored and the negatives are all anyone sees.  I’m not alarmed by this at all yet. I was just acknowledging (since someone asked earlier) that the pattern progression has slowed on guidance. 

[cbmclean]

20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

For whatever reason whenever I make a nuanced post it feels like the positives get ignored and the negatives are all anyone sees.  I’m not alarmed by this at all yet. I was just acknowledging (since someone asked earlier) that the pattern progression has slowed on guidance. 

Couple a' things:

1. Everyone on here has been burned by can-kickage, especially over the last 7 years,  Many of us vividly remember the 2019 El Nada vividly.  So at the first hint of CK, we get the sweats.  It's like the smell of smoke to a herd of spooked horses.

2. You have a history of accuracy in predictions.  Lately many(most?) of the predictions have been of doom, simply because we have been a prolonged stretch of total suck.  When you note even a potential for concern, the wise among us take note.  Case in point: the famous December 30th 2020 post where you described that, based on ALL historical evidence: we were in for fail.  And fail we did.  

So, take it as a compliment.

[WxUSAF]

I agree with you in the sense it seems the transition is taking longer, although we’re seeing that transition start earlier than it was initially progged. This cankicking, as you’re terming it, seems based off of the euro now thinking that MJO will die in phase 7. Well, at one point it was killing it off in phase 3/4. Models always seem to underestimate MJO amplitude so I’m not sold on permanent phase 7 despite Eric Webb using 38 flame emojis. And phase 7 is actually good in Nino Januarys! Couple that with a tendency for more +PNA in the midrange plus the strat vortex disruptions and…we’ll see if it’s just shorts and tshirt weather from the 15th into new years.

[Ji]

This will be our 2nd 2 plus inch qpf event storm since Nov 20. Next week appears to be the 3rd. Get 4 or 5 more and we may get an epic winter

[EastCoast NPZ]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

This will be our 2nd 2 plus inch qpf event storm since Nov 20. Next week appears to be the 3rd. Get 4 or 5 more and we may get an epic winter

At the very least end this drought.

[Terpeast]

9 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

At the very least end this drought.

Yup. This is a loaded STJ trained on us with plenty of ammo

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, cbmclean said:

Couple a' things:

1. Everyone on here has been burned by can-kickage, especially over the last 7 years,  Many of us vividly remember the 2019 El Nada vividly.  So at the first hint of CK, we get the sweats.  It's like the smell of smoke to a herd of spooked horses.

2. You have a history of accuracy in predictions.  Lately many(most?) of the predictions have been of doom, simply because we have been a prolonged stretch of total suck.  When you note even a potential for concern, the wise among us take note.  Case in point: the famous December 30th 2020 post where you described that, based on ALL historical evidence: we were in for fail.  And fail we did.  

So, take it as a compliment.

Almost all my “predictions” are just me pointing out probabilities based on data analysis of history. “What happened  when we were previously in this same situation” type stuff.  Sometimes it helps identity when we’re likely to get snow. Lately it’s mostly identified when we’re fooked. But it’s just math.  Anyone could do it. 

[cbmclean]

20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Almost all my “predictions” are just me pointing out probabilities based on data analysis of history. “What happened  when we were previously in this same situation” type stuff.  Sometimes it helps identity when we’re likely to get snow. Lately it’s mostly identified when we’re fooked. But it’s just math.  Anyone could do it. 

 Not necessarily.  It takes mental discipline and an analytical mind.    Neither is in over abundance.

[Ji]

00z with a great track but zero cold air again

[Weather Will]

Looking at the WB OZ EPS teleconnections the PNA is favorable but none of the other indices are showing a colder look.  Hopefully the strat. warm everyone keeps talking about or the MJO will shake this up..

edit:  EPO is negative around the 17th, but without NAO help would flavor an inland track for the next storm.

At least we are getting much needed rain..