December Mid/Long Range Discussion

[mattie g]

6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

4th out of last 5 GFS runs with a big phasing/near-phasing coastal D8-11. Hopefully we see that again with some colder air in another few weeks. 

Yup. Too bad CONUS is full of warm air at the time, but it's great to see a storm coming out of the Gulf of Mexico and riding the coast.

[midatlanticweather]

8 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

@psuhoffman I remember last year you talked a lot about how one of your main worries was how there was next to no frozen precip on the north sides of the low. Should we expect that to change in nino years? Using the recent gfs as an example of what you talked about last year. I know it’s December but still a little concerning to see no snow anywhere with a nor easter. 

I think this setup has issues. The High to the North is departing.  The air is not that cold. There is a kicker Low in Canada kicking out whatever the Cooler High could bring. The upper-level support is trying to figure out phasing and timing. A little colder (probably a month later) I would think this would be a wintrier start but would easily change to rain. 

But what do I know!

 

 

[SnowenOutThere]

5 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Looks at the temps across North America. This isn't some borderline snow situation - it's in the 40s from coast to coast. There's just no cold for this to tap into.

Isn’t that slightly concerning on a broader scale for our winter events?

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Isn’t that slightly concerning on a broader scale for our winter events?

not really, no. it's early and the pattern sucks in general

[brooklynwx99]

you wouldn't see snow in 1875 with an antecedent pattern like this in mid-December

 

[Terpeast]

9 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

you wouldn't see snow in 1875 with an antecedent pattern like this in mid-December

 

Yeah we’d need more of a -epo this early. It may not matter as much in Jan/Feb though

[cbmclean]

16 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

you wouldn't see snow in 1875 with an antecedent pattern like this in mid-December

 

Honest question from one trying to learn.  What makes this a bad antecedent pattern?  To my unlearned eye I see a +PNA.  The EPO domain is complicated but certainly no pig Alaska vortex.  I see what looks like the TPV in Norther Quebec.  (On the other hand I do see it looks like a +AO.)

What is the mechanism for this being bad?

Note I am not challenging that this IS bad, just trying to understand what makes it so. 

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, cbmclean said:

Honest question from one trying to learn.  What makes this a bad antecedent pattern?  To my unlearned eye I see a +PNA.  The EPO domain is complicated but certainly no pig Alaska vortex.  I see what looks like the TPV in Norther Quebec.  (On the other hand I do see it looks like a +AO.)

What is the mechanism for this being bad?

Note I am not challenging that this IS bad, just trying to understand what makes it so. 

there is just no cold air in the US. look at the heights

[mattie g]

8 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Isn’t that slightly concerning on a broader scale for our winter events?

Agree with brooklyn. I think you run a risk if you try to view an individual event as indicative of a greater issue. I don't think any of us would take a cold powder storm in mid-December and draw sweeping conclusions about where we were going on a wider scale, so I don't think we can do that here.

It's really nothing to do with borderline temps in our immediate region during prime climo - it's just that CONUS is warm and we're at the beginning of a pattern change in the middle of December. It's annoying, but I don't think we can draw any conclusions from it other than that it's part of the step down into more favorable climo and setup.

[cbmclean]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

there is just no cold air in the US. look at the heights

Yes I understand that.  But why is there no cold air?  What is the mechanism by which the warm Pacific air is dominating the CONUS?

[SnowenOutThere]

19 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

you wouldn't see snow in 1875 with an antecedent pattern like this in mid-December

 

It doesn't even show snow until it hits Canada, I understand its a torched pattern but seeing rain into southern Canada on the backside of a nor easter just feels wrong.

1 minute ago, mattie g said:

Agree with brooklyn. I think you run a risk if you try to view an individual event as indicative of a greater issue. I don't think any of us would take a cold powder storm in mid-December and draw sweeping conclusions about where we were going on a wider scale, so I don't think we can do that here.

Like I said its just an example of something pointed out during last years winter. Enough individual events line up to cause trends, as winter goes on we (should) hopefully see less of this but if we don't then prob not a great sign. Doubt thats what will happen but just concerns me about the future in general because eventually storms like this will become the far more likely if not the norm. 

[CAPE]

16 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah we’d need more of a -epo this early. It may not matter as much in Jan/Feb though

Speaking of.. this will get some cold into our source region quick.

[WVclimo]

3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

It doesn't even show snow until it hits Canada, I understand its a torched pattern but seeing rain into southern Canada on the backside of a nor easter just feels wrong.

Like I said its just an example of something pointed out during last years winter. Enough individual events line up to cause trends, as winter goes on we (should) hopefully see less of this but if we don't then prob not a great sign. Doubt thats what will happen but just concerns me about the future in general because eventually storms like this will become the far more likely if not the norm. 

I’m 60 years old and I’ve seen countless storms like this in mid December.  It’s a product of the pattern.  I don’t think you should read too much more into it than that.

[WxUSAF]

4 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Yes I understand that.  But why is there no cold air?  What is the mechanism by which the warm Pacific air is dominating the CONUS?

Look earlier. That big PAC trough just scrours the continent of cold air while the big low moves underneath 

[WxUSAF]

Continuing to anti-cankick on 12z GEFS. Bad news for the Debs.

[cbmclean]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Look earlier. That big PAC trough just scrours the continent of cold air while the big low moves underneath 

So in other words, the full latitude Pac trough directed mild maritime air into our source regions?  That makes sense (if that is correct).  

Thanks!

[WxUSAF]

5 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

So in other words, the full latitude Pac trough directed mild maritime air into our source regions?  That makes sense (if that is correct).  

Thanks!

Correct

[H2O]

17 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

So in other words, the full latitude Pac trough directed mild maritime air into our source regions?  That makes sense (if that is correct).  

Thanks!

Basically to my dumb eye, the isobars are more west to east and not bent to come down from the polar regions.  You want the 520-540 lines pointing down to Montana to start getting cold air into the US

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, SnowenOutThere said:

@psuhoffman I remember last year you talked a lot about how one of your main worries was how there was next to no frozen precip on the north sides of the low. Should we expect that to change in nino years? Using the recent gfs as an example of what you talked about last year. I know it’s December but still a little concerning to see no snow anywhere with a nor easter. 

It's too early to freak out about that...you're not wrong about what I said but that was when we were seeing this in January/February.  It's hard to overcome pac puke in December.  

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

you wouldn't see snow in 1875 with an antecedent pattern like this in mid-December

 

You're not wrong but I do think if that projection is correct wrt not even seeing snow at like 3-4k feet in the Apps that indicative of a warmer climate.  I can remember some December high elevation snows in the Apps in pac puke crap airmasses...but this is a margins thing and in no way indicates we can't get snow here later in winter...but it is somewhat indicative of how much harder its becoming to get snow early in the season, even at higher elevations.  

[Prestige Worldwide]

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1733192840472379769?s=61&t=jtYSAZghIHxEA6K1a8OFsw
 

someone seems happy 

[BristowWx]

30 minutes ago, Prestige Worldwide said:

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1733192840472379769?s=61&t=jtYSAZghIHxEA6K1a8OFsw
 

someone seems happy 

He said almost certainly…so there is a chance it might snow and no torchmas

[cbmclean]

38 minutes ago, Prestige Worldwide said:

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1733192840472379769?s=61&t=jtYSAZghIHxEA6K1a8OFsw
 

someone seems happy 

Not sure what the East Coast snow weenies did to him, but man that is unseemly.

[Heisy]

Could def see the day 9-10 event being a big hitter for elevated areas/interior. Cold source just not there for most of us. Cutoff low. Couple of big hits for interior on eps


.

[CAPE]

23 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Not sure what the East Coast snow weenies did to him, but man that is unseemly.

Verbatim it looks a few degrees above average. So no snow on Xmas = torch. What a jerk.

[psuhoffman]

10 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Could def see the day 9-10 event being a big hitter for elevated areas/interior. Cold source just not there for most of us. Cutoff low. Couple of big hits for interior on eps


.

base builder for snowshow WV 

[WxUSAF]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Verbatim it looks a few degrees above average. So no snow on Xmas = torch. What a jerk.

3-4 tweets into the thread he admits the pattern is good for eastern cold/snow after that 

[cbmclean]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Verbatim it looks a few degrees above average. So no snow on Xmas = torch. What a jerk.

I don't remember him being like that previously, maybe I just didn't follow him on twitter (er...X) back then.

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Verbatim it looks a few degrees above average. So no snow on Xmas = torch. What a jerk.

Yea I wasn't going to bother to respond but that is no torch... with an active STJ tracking under the high pressure dome in Canada...it's more like a Seattle winter type temp profile, not cold enough for snow but definitely not something we would remember as a torch.  Once the vortex gets to the Aleutians the temp profile over the CONUS will start to cool.  Still wont have arctic air...but once the pac puke firehose is directed well west of us it will allow some continental air to get mixed into the equation and we should be able to get a cold enough profile domestically to work with.  At least that's my plan and I'm sticking too it.  

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

3-4 tweets into the thread he admits the pattern is good for eastern cold/snow after that 

He is flirting with becoming a clown in the opposite way as JB 

[ldub23]

1 hour ago, Prestige Worldwide said:

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1733192840472379769?s=61&t=jtYSAZghIHxEA6K1a8OFsw
 

someone seems happy 

Twas the  night  before Christmas and all thru the  house, no arctic air was stirring, not even a wisp. (best  i could do) Im still looking at when fairbanks warms  up. Hopefully  it wont  be  in march. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

And  yes, when Fairbanks starts talking about well above  normal temps then the  cold will be  coming

 

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
The extended is looking interesting. Starting with the general
pattern, troughing over the state will leave an arctic front
draped over the Interior, the exact placement is still being
determined but this will play an important role. The storm track
will be from the Pacific, south of the Aleutians to near Prince
William sound. This will allow for several snow chances in the
Interior. The placement of the arctic front will be determined by
a couple of factors, a low over the Arctic providing northerly
flow and the remnant low over the YK Delta providing persistent
lows into the Northern Gulf of Alaska. Also, with these storms
coming up, they will run into a high sitting over Eastern Russia,
resulting in a tightening gradient and prolonging the northerly
winds in the Bering Strait and St. Lawrence Island next week with
heavy snow still remaining possible. Winds may pick up
significantly over the Bering Sea with this set up and we are
monitoring closely for the potential for impactful weather.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.