December Mid/Long Range Discussion

[Blizzard of 93]

Here is the 30 day pattern from the latest Euro Weeklies beginning December 22nd through January 21st.

We can’t ask for a better look!

[WxUSAF]

2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Not sure he is complaining.  You trust the euro weeklies?  So long for this transition seems phantom.  But you are right Deb is a way to get through the muck

I’m always cautious but the weeklies fit the MJO and strat progression. And now we’re seeing the transition on the ensembles inside D15. We’re not going to flip to an epic pattern from Xmas through March, but I’m feeling pretty good right now about late month into the first 1-2 weeks of January at least. 

[BristowWx]

8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I’m always cautious but the weeklies fit the MJO and strat progression. And now we’re seeing the transition on the ensembles inside D15. We’re not going to flip to an epic pattern from Xmas through March, but I’m feeling pretty good right now about late month into the first 1-2 weeks of January at least. 

Good enough for me.  I’ve always respected your optimism or lack of it.  We wait.  But the natives are restless.  

[Blizzard of 93]

13 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The latest Euro Weeklies do indeed continue to be drool worthy.

The can has not & is not being kicked on the Euro Weeklies.

The good looking pattern begins Christmas week & continues through mid January.

I don’t recall a time when the Euro Weeklies were this consistent run after run.

They have produced the same good looking pattern beginning around December 20th on the Weeklies runs since at least around Thanksgiving.

[cbmclean]

31 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

We just can't win. The Pacific jet extension is here to stay it looks like.

 

Honest question, but isn't the migration of the core of the low to the Aleutians what we want to see?  That seems like that is what it is doing.

[Eskimo Joe]

30 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Dude…I know being a Deb is a coping mechanism, but we’re seeing the transition to the drool worthy euro weekly pattern and you’re complaining about that?

It's a legitimate fear. We've seen these jet extensions persist longer than initially forecast and it leads to can kicking once we get close to D10 l, like 2018-2019.

[WxUSAF]

9 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Good enough for me.  I’ve always respected your optimism or lack of it.  We wait.  But the natives are restless.  

I think if last year wasn’t the worst ever maybe people would have a little more patience. I still think we get on the board this month and maybe really rock the first half of January.

5 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Honest question, but isn't the migration of the core of the low to the Aleutians what we want to see?  That seems like that is what it is doing.

Yes

[DarkSharkWX]

4 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Honest question, but isn't the migration of the core of the low to the Aleutians what we want to see?  That seems like that is what it is doing.

yea lol, its going to take some time to transition to a good pattern for here, it j isnt going to magically flip from warm to cold and snowy, not sure why some people were expecting it

[Chris78]

Winter is progressing the way the seasonal models have shown for a while now. Weeklies look great! Could they go to shit? Sure. We've seen that happen plenty of times but Id much rather have them showing a pretty epic January than a shit the blinds type of deal we've seen the last few years.

 

 

[TSSN+]

Nam is on the euro train. 

[brooklynwx99]

people forget that jet extensions lead to +PNA. we want those

jet retractions are associated with La Niña and -PNA

[Chris78]

13 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Nam is on the euro train. 

Nam is a legit 1 to 3 across alot of area.

Nam is money at 84 hours right?

[clskinsfan]

4 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Nam is a legit 1 to 3 across alot of area.

Nam is money at 84 hours right?

Laugh all you want. But that used to be a legit way to snag an inch or twoi out here. I hope its right.

[Chris78]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

Laugh all you want. But that used to be a legit way to snag an inch or twoi out here. I hope its right.

If we somehow do snag an inch or 2 out of this it's probably a good sign for winter

 

[NorthArlington101]

Nam is a legit 1 to 3 across alot of area.
Nam is money at 84 hours right?

RGEM doesn’t agree. It’s over

[CAPE]

Getting there on the 18z GEFS. +Heights shifting northwestward into the the NAO domain and the AK trough retrograding.

[CAPE]

3 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

It's a legitimate fear. We've seen these jet extensions persist longer than initially forecast and it leads to can kicking once we get close to D10 l, like 2018-2019.

An extended Pacific jet is associated with a +PNA. The specific N-S location also has an influence.

[NorthArlington101]

00z GFS was a step in the right direction. Most look like they flip to flakes.

[nj2va]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

00z GFS was a step in the right direction. Most look like they flip to flakes.

Could beat my total all of last winter 

[North Balti Zen]

EJ is really Eric Webb…

[NorthArlington101]

Could beat my total all of last winter 

Kuchera? Weak stuff. I wouldn’t be expecting anything to accumulate anyway unless I lived on a mountaintop anyway so I’ll pretend it’s all 10:1.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Kuchera? Weak stuff. I wouldn’t be expecting anything to accumulate anyway unless I lived on a mountaintop anyway so I’ll pretend it’s all 10:1.

Well of course there is one important mountaintop this would be relevant for

[CAPE]

3 hours ago, BristowWx said:

Not sure he is complaining.  You trust the euro weeklies?  So long for this transition seems phantom.  But you are right Deb is a way to get through the muck

It's a way to shit up this thread. There is another one specifically for that crap.

[Maestrobjwa]

21 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It's a way to shit up this thread. There is another one specifically for that crap.

People gotta start being considerate of this thread and what it's here for...I mean seriously. Folks keep making it all about themselves and what they're feeling, not realizing what it's doing to the thread.

[NorthArlington101]

00z GFS was a step in the right direction. Most look like they flip to flakes.

GEFS also coming in improved… maybe we’ll wake up to an interesting EURO for favored zones?

[WEATHER53]

9 hours ago, ldub23 said:

The signs  of  a  pattern change might  be there but the  cold  air  isnt

 

about the  coldest time  of day and nothing remarkable anywhere  in the  US

 

-10 lurking 

[NorthArlington101]

GEFS also coming in improved… maybe we’ll wake up to an interesting EURO for favored zones?

Quite the spread lol. Was hoping the individual members had like a consensus on a “T-2” event rather than a 0”-2’. Don’t think those ever work out.

[AtlanticWx]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Quite the spread lol. Was hoping the individual members had like a consensus on a “T-2” event rather than a 0”-2’. Don’t think those ever work out.

what's the mean? pivotal weather says it's 2" in moco

[NorthArlington101]

what's the mean? pivotal weather says it's 2" in moco

Yeah that’s right — probably a little less, but the mean is basically useless since that one member drops a foot.

This the 50th percentile. Prob more accurate sadly.

[AtlanticWx]