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December Mid/Long Range Discussion

WxUSAF

By WxUSAF,
in Mid Atlantic

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Bob Chill
Bob Chill

No matter how long of a break you take from here, nothing changes. Not.one.thing. 

mappy
mappy

Good morning --  Winter starts Friday (climatological seasons for the win), and our regular snow birds are coming back to roost for the winter. As such our threads are becoming more active, espec

stormtracker
stormtracker

Seconded. And while we're at it, yall remember when posting a model post 200 hours was scorned upon?  Remember how the community would collectively rain hell on a poster who did that?  It's not a

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winter_warlock

winter_warlock

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

I counted atleast 20 members of the eps that get snow into Central MD Sunday night. Enough to atleast to coat the grass. 

Some a little more than that.

Sterling mentions that!!.....

  

" a fair amount of ensemble members even
show it occurring further east. As with many other aspects of the
forecast, the finer scale details of the snow forecast remain highly
uncertain four days out."
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Eskimo Joe

Eskimo Joe

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

Sterling mentions that!!.....

  

" a fair amount of ensemble members even
show it occurring further east. As with many other aspects of the
forecast, the finer scale details of the snow forecast remain highly
uncertain four days out."

Definitely could see the Catoctins getting their first dusting of snow with this system. 

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Jebman

Jebman

Posted
Posted
21 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

We smoked so much cirrus out in Cross Junction I failed a drug test. We didn't get a single flake out there.  Remember driving into town the next morning and hit snow dusting at the Virginia Farm Market.  About 2 inches at our office in Kernstown.   Went over to my place in Front Royal that evening and there was over 4" on the ground.  Unreal.

This.

Genuine sig material, for the ages.

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jayyy

jayyy

Posted
Posted
IIRC, GFS was upgraded to correct a bias in North America that cause the boundary layer to remain too cool.

Correct. It used to be that you could confidently bet that the GFS was too far SE with the boundary and the resulting storms that rode along it. You could account for a 100+ mile shift NW from what the GFS showed beyond day 4, especially when the EC CMC and NAM aligned on a further NW solution, and take it to the bank. Inside the day 3-4 window you knew that the GFS was going to pull that sucker NW.

No two ways about it. Recent Gfs upgrades have been legit. A lot less long range fantasy snow, and a much more realistic progression at h5. I’d rather it that way. Getting your hopes up because the GFS showed a blizzard while other guidance had slop / rain rarely worked out in the weenies favor.

The euro seems to have lost some its shine over the past several years. It tends to be too quick bringing cold air into the CWA, phasing features, etc.

The pattern looks so close to being ripe around Christmas on today’s runs. But as PSU said, that may be a tad early for a biggie to hit. With that being said… we could still sneak in snow with some luck and good timing. Tend to believe it’d be more of a 2-4/3-6” type event early on the in pattern change progression


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Terpeast

Terpeast

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, jayyy said:


Correct. It used to be that you could confidently bet that the GFS was too far SE with the boundary and the resulting storms that rode along it. You could account for a 100+ mile shift NW from what the GFS showed beyond day 4, especially when the EC CMC and NAM aligned on a further NW solution, and take it to the bank. Inside the day 3-4 window you knew that the GFS was going to pull that sucker NW.

No two ways about it. Recent Gfs upgrades have been legit. A lot less long range fantasy snow, and a much more realistic progression at h5. I’d rather it that way. Getting your hopes up because the GFS showed a blizzard while other guidance had slop / rain rarely worked out in the weenies favor.

The euro seems to have lost some its shine over the past several years. It tends to be too quick bringing cold air into the CWA, phasing features, etc.

The pattern looks so close to being ripe around Christmas on today’s runs. But as PSU said, that may be a tad early for a biggie to hit. With that being said… we could still sneak in snow with some luck and good timing. Tend to believe it’d be more of a 2-4/3-6” type event early on the in pattern change progression


.

Yeah, I was so sick of getting hopes up with the gfs last year. I’m glad they fixed the damned thing

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Rhino16

Rhino16

Posted
Posted

Just from some forecasting I’ve done over the past few weeks, the GFS has done very well on precipitation. I’m terrible at temperatures though, but that’s because of the situations we’ve been given each week. Also agree the Euro has been not as great. Sometimes however, it will be 5° warmer than anything else and somehow be the closest. I’m trying to get some practice in to see when and when not to trust it.

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BristowWx

BristowWx

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

We just can't win. The Pacific jet extension is here to stay it looks like.

 

What can you do.  I mean maybe we all were a bit too hopeful.  Strong Nino has always been associated with warm and wet for us.  We could be fighting this all winter and end up with 97-98.  

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WxUSAF

WxUSAF

Posted
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Posted
5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:
 

We just can't win. The Pacific jet extension is here to stay it looks like.

 

Dude…I know being a Deb is a coping mechanism, but we’re seeing the transition to the drool worthy euro weekly pattern and you’re complaining about that?

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Blizzard of 93

Blizzard of 93

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Dude…I know being a Deb is a coping mechanism, but we’re seeing the transition to the drool worthy euro weekly pattern and you’re complaining about that?

The latest Euro Weeklies do indeed continue to be drool worthy.

The can has not & is not being kicked on the Euro Weeklies.

The good looking pattern begins Christmas week & continues through mid January.

IMG_3503.png

IMG_3504.png

IMG_3505.png

IMG_3506.png

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BristowWx

BristowWx

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Dude…I know being a Deb is a coping mechanism, but we’re seeing the transition to the drool worthy euro weekly pattern and you’re complaining about that?

Not sure he is complaining.  You trust the euro weeklies?  So long for this transition seems phantom.  But you are right Deb is a way to get through the muck

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