Bob Chill Posted November 25, 2023 Share Posted November 25, 2023 No matter how long of a break you take from here, nothing changes. Not.one.thing. 21 28 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted November 25, 2023 Share Posted November 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, Shaulov4 said: 1) I have never “professed” to being an expert ant anything other than perhaps at eating Chinese food. 2) The question was sincere and although it may have came across as sardonic i assure , it wasn’t. 3) Thank You making me look up the word Neophyte, I will gladly add that to my much limited vocabulary. 4) Posting a total Precipitation map of a 15 Day Euro “Control” run is just as analytical as a child picking its boogies. 5) I have no Ego, it’s been gone since I was a teen. I don’t get heated especially over the weather. I am sorry that I have offended you and surely that wasn’t my motive but rather than throwing out cool words, I would suggest you ask whether I was being sincere prior to insulting me. Thank You I have never been a big fan of the 15 day EURO but it was posted here a few days ago amind a big splash so I figured I would post it. The more I read your thoughts, the more I think we could be friends!! Don't take anything you perceive as an insult seriously. You're question, "is this a serious post" prompted a reply. I gave the reply and we are fine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted November 25, 2023 Share Posted November 25, 2023 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: No matter how long of a break you take from here, nothing changes. Not.one.thing. Welcome back Bob!! I have missed you............. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 25, 2023 Share Posted November 25, 2023 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: No matter how long of a break you take from here, nothing changes. Not.one.thing. Sorry you had to come back just to see this, lol But was just wondering yesterday if you'd see enough good to chime in! Good to see ya 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 25, 2023 Share Posted November 25, 2023 11 minutes ago, stormy said: I have never been a big fan of the 15 day EURO but it was posted here a few days ago amind a big splash so I figured I would post it. The more I read your thoughts, the more I think we could be friends!! Don't take anything you perceive as an insult seriously. You're question, "is this a serious post" prompted a reply. I gave the reply and we are fine. The OP Euro is NOT the same as the Euro Control...if that's indeed what you posted. Euro control is a single member of the ensembles with no perturbed conditions initially. It's NOT the OP Euro and has little value other than being a single member of the EC ENS ETA: You literally did post the Euro ensemble control member. Not even the OP Euro run... I went back and looked. It's a single ensemble member. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 25, 2023 Share Posted November 25, 2023 22 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: i know this is a LR OP run, but notice how the GoA low continually forces a WC ridge. the confluence over the east allows for a potent coastal. the Pacific pattern is a complete departure from the last few years and is classic Nino Bowling ball straight across taking the southern route, with no destructive interference from the NS. Nino baby. 17 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaulov4 Posted November 25, 2023 Share Posted November 25, 2023 10 minutes ago, stormy said: I have never been a big fan of the 15 day EURO but it was posted here a few days ago amind a big splash so I figured I would post it. The more I read your thoughts, the more I think we could be friends!! Don't take anything you perceive as an insult seriously. You're question, "is this a serious post" prompted a reply. I gave the reply and we are fine. Fair enough, I shake your hand we move on 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted November 25, 2023 Share Posted November 25, 2023 We're rounding into mid season form before winter even starts I see. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 25, 2023 Share Posted November 25, 2023 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: Bowling ball straight across taking the southern route, with no destructive interference from the NS. Nino baby. SECSyyyyy Me like !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaulov4 Posted November 25, 2023 Share Posted November 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: Bowling ball straight across taking the southern route, with no destructive interference from the NS. Nino baby. Quick question, while understanding that this will change about a billion times, what is the main cause of this “system” heading due south east? Is it the northwest energy squashing the ridge forcing heights to lower? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 25, 2023 Share Posted November 25, 2023 6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Sorry you had to come back just to see this, lol But was just wondering yesterday if you'd see enough good to chime in! Good to see ya Honestly, I've been hoping it holds off. Been down in VA working with a buddy having a blast since labor day. Outdoor work though... heh. Developing upper air pattern looks pretty classic for early season snow but we usually cap out at 3-5" type storms front half of Dec and they are nailbiters usually. We'll see in a week. I like my spot near smith mtn. Upslope is real. Smith rises 1300' above my property and it's a very steep mountain. Less than 2 miles away. NE and E flow rain is nasty here compared to 10 miles away. If things line up, I think I'll get mini jacked. Been curious for 16 months cuz last winter was an epic snow fail lol 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 25, 2023 Share Posted November 25, 2023 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Honestly, I've been hoping it holds off. Been down in VA working with a buddy having a blast since labor day. Outdoor work though... heh. Developing upper air pattern looks pretty classic for early season snow but we usually cap out at 3-5" type storms front half of Dec and they are nailbiters usually. We'll see in a week. I like my spot near smith mtn. Upslope is real. Smith rises 1300' above my property and it's a very steep mountain. Less than 2 miles away. NE and E flow rain is nasty here compared to 10 miles away. If things line up, I think I'll get mini jacked. Been curious for 16 months cuz last winter was an epic snow fail lol Good to "see" you Bob. Amazing what not having a Nina for once can do. We are gonna have our chances this year. Maybe they all fail. But I find that highly unlikely. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 25, 2023 Share Posted November 25, 2023 4 minutes ago, Shaulov4 said: Quick question, while understanding that this will change about a billion times, what is the main cause of this “system” heading due south east? Is it the northwest energy squashing the ridge forcing heights to lower? It can be easier to visualize by looking at surface pressure. Sprawling HP to the north and west. Forces low pressure to move more lateral than north https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023112518/gfs_mslpa_us_58.png 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 25, 2023 Share Posted November 25, 2023 32 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: No matter how long of a break you take from here, nothing changes. Not.one.thing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaulov4 Posted November 26, 2023 Share Posted November 26, 2023 12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It can be easier to visualize by looking at surface pressure. Sprawling HP to the north and west. Forces low pressure to move more lateral than north https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023112518/gfs_mslpa_us_58.png Oh wow very cool thank you very much. I think I focus on 500mb too much, I gotta learn to be more diverse. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 26, 2023 Share Posted November 26, 2023 4 minutes ago, Shaulov4 said: Oh wow very cool thank you very much. I think I focus on 500mb too much, I gotta learn to be more diverse. That is a key feature in east coast snow storms. Big high, snow flies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted November 26, 2023 Share Posted November 26, 2023 5 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: That's a KU look. Mid Atlantic is going to get obliterated by snow. 1 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 26, 2023 Share Posted November 26, 2023 43 minutes ago, Shaulov4 said: Quick question, while understanding that this will change about a billion times, what is the main cause of this “system” heading due south east? Is it the northwest energy squashing the ridge forcing heights to lower? The weather we see at the surface is largely a function of the flow aloft. That's how I do my analysis. Top down. Identifying areas of speed divergence/convergence, and regions of confluence/difluence in the flow at 500 mb is a technique to predict where areas of higher and lower pressure will occur at the surface. Looking at the Jetstream level above, and 850 mb level below will also provide clues. Ultimately identifying the location of the thermal boundary between disparate(different temperature/density) air masses is a key indicator of storm track. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted November 26, 2023 Share Posted November 26, 2023 59 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Honestly, I've been hoping it holds off. Been down in VA working with a buddy having a blast since labor day. Outdoor work though... heh. Developing upper air pattern looks pretty classic for early season snow but we usually cap out at 3-5" type storms front half of Dec and they are nailbiters usually. We'll see in a week. I like my spot near smith mtn. Upslope is real. Smith rises 1300' above my property and it's a very steep mountain. Less than 2 miles away. NE and E flow rain is nasty here compared to 10 miles away. If things line up, I think I'll get mini jacked. Been curious for 16 months cuz last winter was an epic snow fail lol Good to see ya again! You, are about to have a memorable winter!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 26, 2023 Author Share Posted November 26, 2023 At least one very compelling date here 11 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted November 26, 2023 Share Posted November 26, 2023 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: At least one very compelling date here 1962, 1961 & 2009 all had >6" of snow fall in december at BWI 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted November 26, 2023 Share Posted November 26, 2023 The GEFS is close to the ECM Control for the next 15 days: Zonal flow with weak lift makes the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted November 26, 2023 Share Posted November 26, 2023 If you want to see snow turn the kansas state game on now on Fox 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted November 26, 2023 Share Posted November 26, 2023 13 minutes ago, stormy said: The GEFS is close to the ECM Control for the next 15 days: Zonal flow with weak lift makes the difference. I might not be that learned at weather but I'm pretty sure this is not zonal flow in the slightest 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 26, 2023 Share Posted November 26, 2023 It’s also an ensemble mean and thus will appear smoothed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted November 26, 2023 Share Posted November 26, 2023 Look at these sea temps. Offshore wind platforms are causing this! They’re diverting the Gulf Stream! (Farts, belt breaks, pants fall down)In all seriousness, as long as December SSTs are this crazy, gonna be tough for the coastal plain to see snow in the early season without a shot of extreme cold. From now until forever. Which is why I’m watching the depth of cold air in Canada. I’ll cheer for you folks in the burbs, but in the city, we’ll need a legit cold shot or else the thermal gradient/mixing issues won’t work for us until this cools off. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 26, 2023 Share Posted November 26, 2023 WB 18Z EURO and GFS for Wed. Am. Let's see which model is closer esp. inside the DC beltway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 26, 2023 Share Posted November 26, 2023 40 minutes ago, Jebman said: Mid Atlantic is going to get obliterated by snow. Ur the ultimate Optimist Jeb ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 26, 2023 Share Posted November 26, 2023 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Honestly, I've been hoping it holds off. Been down in VA working with a buddy having a blast since labor day. Outdoor work though... heh. Developing upper air pattern looks pretty classic for early season snow but we usually cap out at 3-5" type storms front half of Dec and they are nailbiters usually. We'll see in a week. I like my spot near smith mtn. Upslope is real. Smith rises 1300' above my property and it's a very steep mountain. Less than 2 miles away. NE and E flow rain is nasty here compared to 10 miles away. If things line up, I think I'll get mini jacked. Been curious for 16 months cuz last winter was an epic snow fail lol Nice area there Bob. Spent some time there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted November 26, 2023 Share Posted November 26, 2023 Even has another potential storm afterwards. If only it wasn't so far away ... Baltimore bullseye — what could go wrong? In all seriousness though… the longwave pattern is trending in a great direction for early to mid December. The -NAO seems like a lock at this point being only 4-5 days away. Very intrigued by the recent development of some models showing the AO tanking and staying negative for most of December. Couple that with a workable PAC (HUH!?), and we WILL cash in. There may not be a significant storm to kick off December, but I think we’d all welcome a nice 3-6” type event to kick things off. Have a feeling those of us who are well inland could even see a warning level snowfall before Dec. 15th if the advertised h5 pattern on ensembles holds firm. We should all know better than to live and die by OP runs 7+ days out - particularly the clown maps. I’m sure one of the OP GFS runs tomorrow will show a flush hit. Folks are going to drive themselves nuts living and dying by run to run 10:1 snow maps on OP runs. Watch the trends, not the clown maps. This will be the best winter we’ve had in 7+ years. That much is becoming crystal clear. Even if that bar is low, it excites the bajesus outta me. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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