December Mid/Long Range Discussion

[stormy]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Late next week is worth keeping an eye on, even if just because it’s all we have besides D15+ pattern watch. 12z and 18z gfs close. Ensembles don’t look enthused, but longwave pattern has been shifting more favorable for that time.

 You are correct, the STJ is threatening to become active late next week on the GFS.  Pre Christmas snow??

[midatlanticweather]

Boom on the digital snow for western folks. Not ideal, way off in lala land.. but wow! Boom!

 

[DarkSharkWX]

4 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Boom on the digital snow for western folks. Not ideal, way off in lala land.. but wow! Boom!

 

over 5 feet tears

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I agree and I went big in my snowfall forecast but to play devils advocate the 1966 could be a risky repeat. A significant portion of the January snow was from a triple phased storm. All of the Feb snow was from a very marginal storm where temps were near freezing. Would that even work anymore. Take away that huge January storm and if the Feb storm is a mixed mess v snow and that season wasn’t that good anymore. 

You can play this game with a lot of seasons that stunk, too....if that big storm last season did pop a little nipple low over CT, then I had normal snowfall last season. Who knows....maybe that marginal event bombs more due to the increased moisture and energy available. We can only analyze and consider what DID happen.

[stormy]

9 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

over 5 feet tears

This is la-la land.   Reduce this by 90% and you will be close. Where does this crap come from???

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, stormy said:

This is la-la land.   Reduce this by 90% and you will be close. Where does this crap come from???

Well, we certainly know where it belongs...the digital snow thread!

[Ji]

9 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Well, we certainly know where it belongs...the digital snow thread!

im driving bro. 

 

on a side note---it looks like the pattern change could be at the earlier than Christmas? Does anyone now the accurary of the BOMM? shows phase 8 super early

 

[thunderbolt]

5 hours ago, frd said:

MJO phase significance changes based on the three month period you are in. 

By chance do you have a composite that  shows a warm look with a .5 or greater with El Niño

[psuhoffman]

42 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

over 5 feet tears

Let’s all meet at a condo in Canaan Valley! 

[Ji]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Let’s all meet at a condo in Canaan Valley! 

we better hope we like each other because we will be stuck there for weeks

[Maestrobjwa]

57 minutes ago, Ji said:

we better hope we like each other because we will be stuck there for weeks

I have no clue how everybody would get out of there in one piece, lol

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I have no clue how everybody would get out of there in one piece, lol

I'll be ready

[Terpeast]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I agree and I went big in my snowfall forecast but to play devils advocate the 1966 could be a risky repeat. A significant portion of the January snow was from a triple phased storm. All of the Feb snow was from a very marginal storm where temps were near freezing. Would that even work anymore. Take away that huge January storm and if the Feb storm is a mixed mess v snow and that season wasn’t that good anymore. 

@psuhoffmanis right about 65-66.

The marginal Feb event that dropped 9” at IAD would be a total loss today (all rain). 

But the January blizzard would be even more juiced. Like 50% more qpf and snowfall totals. 

If that were to repeat, such a historic blizzard would become even more historic, rivaling or even beating the Jan 1996/Feb 2010/Jan 2016 class of blizzards. 

Do we take this chance? 

I would. 

[WesternFringe]

2 hours ago, DarkSharkWX said:

over 5 feet tears

Western Fringed with 23” lol.  Op at hour 312 for the win!

[Maestrobjwa]

44 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I'll be ready

Fixed 

[Shaulov4]

3 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Only works if we have cold. Otherwise it's 35 and rain.

Better to have than to not have at all.

[stadiumwave]

7 hours ago, frd said:

MJO phase significance changes based on the three month period you are in. 

 

Best MJO tool available compliments of Paul Roundy. It has 360 days, click on phase & time of year & it'll give you the average composite. 

https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/index200reg.html

 

Here's early NOV phase 7 vs late DEC phase 7:

NOV 7, Phase 7

DEC 27, Phase 7

 

OCT 8, Phase 8

DEC 27, Phase 8

 

It's the best MJO tool I've used for time of year phase expectations. There are other factors I know & it's not perfect but no MJO tool is. This is based on extensive research & Paul is a true MJO expert. 

[psuhoffman]

42 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

@psuhoffmanis right about 65-66.

The marginal Feb event that dropped 9” at IAD would be a total loss today (all rain). 

But the January blizzard would be even more juiced. Like 50% more qpf and snowfall totals. 

If that were to repeat, such a historic blizzard would become even more historic, rivaling or even beating the Jan 1996/Feb 2010/Jan 2016 class of blizzards. 

Do we take this chance? 

I would. 

I suspected that Feb 66 storm would be a loss. Wasn’t the Feb 87 also a complete loss?  If so it’s slightly disturbing that 2 of the biggest snows in 2 of the best analogs would be rain now!  That does make me nervous given my ambitious forecast. But I also figured maybe other storms end up compensating. Of course it has to be cold enough at some point for that to work lol. But this highlights my biggest fear. That historically our snowiest patterns often weren’t really that cold. Cold smoke 8”+ snowstorms are not very common. As we continue to warm we’re flirting with disaster because we don’t have much margin left for what is our best snowfall producing long wave patterns to still be viable in DC.  
ETA: yes some storms under the right conditions will get enhanced but over time they would become fewer and further between until it’s almost irrelevant that once every very long while we get some crazy blizzard. That’s like NC used to be. Every so often they get some big snow but who cares they would go years between any significant snow. No self respecting snow weenie would live there. 

[BristowWx]

1 hour ago, WesternFringe said:

Western Fringed with 23” lol.  Op at hour 312 for the win!

That’s a brutal gradient.  I get nothing but so close to nothing it’s painful 

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

@psuhoffmanis right about 65-66.

The marginal Feb event that dropped 9” at IAD would be a total loss today (all rain). 

But the January blizzard would be even more juiced. Like 50% more qpf and snowfall totals. 

If that were to repeat, such a historic blizzard would become even more historic, rivaling or even beating the Jan 1996/Feb 2010/Jan 2016 class of blizzards. 

Do we take this chance? 

I would. 

Bro no

[Terpeast]

46 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I suspected that Feb 66 storm would be a loss. Wasn’t the Feb 87 also a complete loss?  If so it’s slightly disturbing that 2 of the biggest snows in 2 of the best analogs would be rain now!  That does make me nervous given my ambitious forecast. But I also figured maybe other storms end up compensating. Of course it has to be cold enough at some point for that to work lol. But this highlights my biggest fear. That historically our snowiest patterns often weren’t really that cold. Cold smoke 8”+ snowstorms are not very common. As we continue to warm we’re flirting with disaster because we don’t have much margin left for what is our best snowfall producing long wave patterns to still be viable in DC.  
ETA: yes some storms under the right conditions will get enhanced but over time they would become fewer and further between until it’s almost irrelevant that once every very long while we get some crazy blizzard. That’s like NC used to be. Every so often they get some big snow but who cares they would go years between any significant snow. No self respecting snow weenie would live there. 

Feb 1987 is also a loss based on my analysis, yes

[Kevin Reilly]

4 hours ago, DarkSharkWX said:

over 5 feet tears

March comes early!

[WesternFringe]

53 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Feb 1987 is also a loss based on my analysis, yes

Now we are retroactively downgrading storms from the past based on the present. Lol.  Awesome!

ETA:  Nothing would be at all the same about the 500 progression or the surface if there were different temperatures at play.  But pretend like you could change one variable and everything else stays the same!  Only PSU is allowed to do that! 
 

Etaa: btw, I love PSU’s analysis (big ups, man) and learn a lot from him and CAPE And Terpeast and Eskimo Joe and Brooklyn and Mappy etc.  Sincerely thank you all for the analysis.

[Ji]

Now we are retroactively downgrading storms from the past based on the recent years of weather which must obviously be the new normal.  Lol.  Awesome!

Yea man. Horrible speculative stuff…dosent belong in this thread

[WVclimo]

So, because the average temperature has increased by a couple of degrees over the past half-century we need to add those same couple of degrees to each discrete event from years past ?

[Round Hill WX]

The December EURO seasonal for JAN/FEB/MAR is pretty sweet. 

[Ji]

So, because the average temperature has increased by a couple of degrees over the past half-century we need to add those same couple of degrees to each discrete event from years past ?

I’ve seen amazing storms and winters in this “climate change era”bad winters have always been with us..even before this recent cycle of warming

[Maestrobjwa]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

Yea man. Horrible speculative stuff…dosent belong in this thread

Yeah it probably doesn't since it's technically a separate discussion from long range stuff. I mean, I don't know...it's a little bit murky since we do talk about analogs and such. But when this other sufff gets brought up the thread seems to get in the weeds a bit.

[WVclimo]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

I’ve seen amazing storms and winters in this “climate change era”bad winters have always been with us..even before this recent cycle of warming

I had 4” of snow on October 29, 2012 and 3” on April 18, 2022.  How much more warming has to happen to turn those events into rain storms ?

[cbmclean]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

That’s like NC used to be. Every so often they get some big snow but who cares they would go years between any significant snow. No self respecting snow weenie would live there. 

Ouch, that hurt.