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December Mid/Long Range Discussion


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11 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Still too much GOA low pumping most of the CONUS full of pack puke.  The NAO is keeping it seasonable in our areas.  Hopefully the Pacific continues to improve.

there is always going to be a strong GoA low. this is still a colder than average pattern with a +PNA and blocking.

really not much to complain about

IMG_3579.thumb.png.ddbf1a240deeff0930d8c7423fe22bc6.png

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4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Latest GEFS MJO forecast takes convection the into phase 3 then kills it.  Previously it was progressing into phase 4 with decreasing amplitude. This is what we would expect to see in a Nino.. the antithesis of a Nina.

GEFS.png

 

 

May emerge in phase 8 at a low amplitude prior to the holidays, meanwhile the AO looks awesome as we head into December.  

20695899_ao_gefs.sprd2(11).thumb.png.a385957f5440e72debd984da1f235889.png

 

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7 minutes ago, frd said:

 

 

May emerge in phase 8 at a low amplitude prior to the holidays, meanwhile the AO looks awesome as we head into December.  

20695899_ao_gefs.sprd2(11).thumb.png.a385957f5440e72debd984da1f235889.png

 

Kinda scary, but the key indicators look good as we head into early winter. I am more optimistic about Dec than a few weeks ago.

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42 minutes ago, Shaulov4 said:

Is this a serious post? 

You are obviously a neophyte.  Since you profess to be an expert, challenge the ECMWF .   What are your QP predictions for the next 15 days??? I don't want a bunch of crap. I want detailed QP for the entire region for the next 15 days!   Come on , give it to me. You can't' , so chill out.

Ideally,   reasonable people express reasonable ideas on this site.  Unreasonable crap needs to die.  More and more supporters are getting disillusioned.

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5 minutes ago, stormy said:

Ideally,   reasonable people express reasonable ideas on this site.  Unreasonable crap needs to die.  More and more supporters are getting disillusioned.

Reasonable ideas like anthropogenic climate change, which I know you must totally agree with due to the vast scientific consensus on it if you claim that "unreasonable crap needs to die". Also second part is bolded because ??? 

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11 minutes ago, stormy said:

You are obviously a neophyte.  Since you profess to be an expert, challenge the ECMWF .   What are your QP predictions for the next 15 days??? I don't want a bunch of crap. I want detailed QP for the entire region for the next 15 days!   Come on , give it to me. You can't' , so chill out.

Ideally,   reasonable people express reasonable ideas on this site.  Unreasonable crap needs to die.  More and more supporters are getting disillusioned.

Dude you posted the D15 Euro control. That is an incredibly unserious thing to take verbatim and it is *deeply* silly to die on this hill…

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19 minutes ago, stormy said:

You are obviously a neophyte.  Since you profess to be an expert, challenge the ECMWF .   What are your QP predictions for the next 15 days??? I don't want a bunch of crap. I want detailed QP for the entire region for the next 15 days!   Come on , give it to me. You can't' , so chill out.

Ideally,   reasonable people express reasonable ideas on this site.  Unreasonable crap needs to die.  More and more supporters are getting disillusioned.

1) I have never “professed” to being an expert at anything  other than perhaps at eating Chinese food. 
 

2) The question was sincere and although it may have came across as sardonic i assure , it wasn’t. 
 

3) Thank You making me look up the word Neophyte, I will gladly add that to my much limited vocabulary. 

4) Posting a total Precipitation map of a 15 Day Euro “Control” run is just as analytical as a child picking its boogies. 


5) I have no Ego, it’s been gone since I was a teen. I don’t get heated especially over the weather. I am sorry that I have offended you and surely that wasn’t my motive but rather than throwing out cool words, I would suggest you ask whether I was being sincere prior to insulting me. Thank You 

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2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Reasonable ideas like anthropogenic climate change, which I know you must totally agree with due to the vast scientific consensus on it if you claim that "unreasonable crap needs to die". Also second part is bolded because ??? 

I have the wonderful conclusions of a well seasoned mind based on 50 years of common sense observations. It is saddenly obvious that increasing numbers of our society are delusionally captive to nonsense from people who are loons.

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9 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i know this is a LR OP run, but notice how the GoA low continually forces a WC ridge. the confluence over the east allows for a potent coastal. the Pacific  pattern is a complete departure from the last few years and is classic Nino

IMG_3582.thumb.gif.320671646ab509ef00c6e95584bb18df.gif

It's in the perfect spot to do this. More please.

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