December Mid/Long Range Discussion

[ldub23]

39 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Maybe some members trying to kill the MJO prematurely in phase 6 or 7 vs continuing into 7-8-1? Dunno, just guessing/grasping at straws. Strat PV orientation doesn’t seem to jive with cold air in western North America, so not sure what would produce that. 

JB says its coming

 

 

[Eskimo Joe]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

Op run disclaimer, but the 6z GFS setup is how it can snow with a less than ideal Pacific pattern. Pretty textbook in the NA. There have been indications on the means for something mid month. Verbatim this would take care of the PSU correlation issue and then some.

This is close to an ideal surface pressure configuration, and the result of a well timed upper ridge over Greenland with an h5 vortex near the 50-50 position.

Having a solid HP in Quebec like that helps too.

[WxUSAF]

4 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

JB says its coming

 

 

JB’s been saying that since the 70s

[WxUSAF]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

JB’s been saying that since the 70s

That said…I do think the MJO and strat vortex disruption imply cold will get here at some point. And I think some of that should start to be seen the second half of this month. Of course JB’s analogs are always loltastic.

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Having a solid HP in Quebec like that helps too.

Well yeah. It's not there by accident. A proper -NAO/50-50 low generally places HP right where we want it. That was the point.

[CAPE]

42 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z GEFS PNA can't get this to stay positive who cares about everything else.

 

Not worried about the PNA phase. It's going to vary in a Nino. The most critical index at this juncture is the AO, and we have that in our favor.

[Weather Will]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Not worried about the PNA phase. It's going to vary in a Nino. The most critical index at this juncture is the AO, and we have that in our favor.

I learned the hard way last year that if the PNA approaches -3 or lower standard deviation the rest of the indices don't matter for the Mid Atlantic.  Hopefully that does not happen but it is a possibility that can't be completely discounted at this time.  The weekly control, yes I know just one member, is a torch Christmas week.  That is a warning shot....

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

I learned the hard way last year that if the PNA approaches -3 or lower standard deviation the rest of the indices don't matter for the Mid Atlantic.  Hopefully that does not happen but it is a possibility that can't be completely discounted at this time.  The weekly control, yes I know just one member, is a torch Christmas week.  That is a warning shot....

Last year was a Nina with a strong, nearly stationary NE Pac High. If that happens in a Nino then we are truly fucked and need a new hobby.

[frd]

17 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

 The weekly control, yes I know just one member, is a torch Christmas week.  That is a warning shot....

The usual warmth starting around the December 18 th to 20 th has been a fixture in the East the last several years. When you look at Atlantic ocean temps and the very warm Fall we have had it is easy to see that September is a summer month and Decembers are generally more fallish lately than wintery. On the flip side, March will be the wild card.  Looking at the latest data regarding the MJO and its progression and Nino SSTs it appears December overall should start to be modeled warmer and the holiday period that had some potential may not work out that way.  Sounds like a typical Nino.        

  

[CAPE]

22 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Last year was a Nina with a strong, nearly stationary NE Pac High. If that happens in a Nino then we are truly fucked and need a new hobby.

I left out last December because other aspects of the pattern were favorable enough and the massive ridge wasn't quite established early on, so we actually had a shot. Just didn't work out. Beyond that during our actual winter period we literally had no chance.

[CAPE]

^perspective

Everyone take a deep breath. Its gonna snow this winter.

[susqushawn]

13 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I left out last December because other aspects of the pattern were favorable enough and the massive ridge wasn't quite established early on, so we actually had a shot. Just didn't work out. Beyond that during our actual winter period we literally had no chance.

An eps projection for comparison.  That sea of okhotsk trough had been a staple

[Weather Will]

I have not given up on the last week of December yet.  And it is not the end of the world if the can gets kicked down the road a couple weeks into mid January. I never said throw the winter away. But I am pointing out that the ensembles should start showing a shift toward an eastern trough toward the end of their runs by the end of next weekend if the holiday week has any winter potential.

[CAPE]

11 minutes ago, susqushawn said:

An eps projection for comparison.  That sea of okhotsk trough had been a staple

And the EPS extended  pattern progression from that look ends up like this for the end of the month-

 

[NorthArlington101]

I have not given up on the last week of December yet.  And it is not the end of the world if the can gets kicked down the road a couple weeks into mid January. I never said throw the winter away. But I am pointing out that the ensembles should start showing a shift toward an eastern trough toward the end of their runs by the end of next weekend if the holiday week has any winter potential.

The last week of December? I haven’t given up on Wednesday morning yet lol. GFS has some decent overnight snow showers for MD/PA border.

[Ralph Wiggum]

33 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I left out last December because other aspects of the pattern were favorable enough and the massive ridge wasn't quite established early on, so we actually had a shot. Just didn't work out. Beyond that during our actual winter period we literally had no chance.

That dang sw trof blech....still gives me the shakes just seeing that map.

[WxUSAF]

35 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

The last week of December? I haven’t given up on Wednesday morning yet lol. GFS has some decent overnight snow showers for MD/PA border.

Still a chance for Hoffman to get his 1”!

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Still a chance for Hoffman to get his 1”!

Multiple chances on the 12z run. Close calls verbatim.

[WxUSAF]

Looking at @PrinceFrederickWx’s stats in the panic room makes me more dubious about some sort of early snow = snowy winter correlation. And even if there is a correlation, I’m dubious it’s indicative of the whole season. I just think in snowy years it snows more often and with heavier falls. And even that isn’t a super strong guide. This year probably isn’t going to be a 09-10 redux just because that was at least 1 in 150 year event, not because we had an inch December 5, 2009. A couple of the best analogs to this year had AN snowfall, but concentrated in a fairly epic 2-4 weeks. I still personally think we all get on the board this month at least once, but the bulk of the snow, no matter how much we get, is pretty sure to be in January and February (as it almost always is).

[mattie g]

1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

The last week of December? I haven’t given up on Wednesday morning yet lol. GFS has some decent overnight snow showers for MD/PA border.

Right? What’s the f’ing point ignoring the near and medium terms when we’re not looking a torch in the face? It’s just dumb.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Something about this wants to say sorry.. it's a strong La Nina pattern in an El Nino

https://ibb.co/18hVZJQ

https://ibb.co/Jj78d4n

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

And the EPS extended  pattern progression from that look ends up like this for the end of the month-

EPS has never really been a good model imo. Do you know what they showed for Dec 10-18?

[osfan24]

2 hours ago, Weather Will said:

I learned the hard way last year that if the PNA approaches -3 or lower standard deviation the rest of the indices don't matter for the Mid Atlantic.  Hopefully that does not happen but it is a possibility that can't be completely discounted at this time.  The weekly control, yes I know just one member, is a torch Christmas week.  That is a warning shot....

A torch Christmas week, you say? I've never been more confident that a blockbuster Nino season is headed our way.

[WEATHER53]

Gotta be real carefully observant about the onset of delays for the onset of cold 

[Ralph Wiggum]

5 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Gotta be real carefully observant about the inset of delays for the onset of cold 

"Delayed but not denied"

[Terpeast]

For now the northern stream is very fast and strong, but was probably well forecasted for December. Still think it’ll calm down and give the STJ more room once we get to mjo 7 and beyond

[Ralph Wiggum]

16 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

For now the northern stream is very fast and strong, but was probably well forecasted for December. Still think it’ll calm down and give the STJ more room once we get to mjo 7 and beyond

Need to hope we meet in the middle and not too much stj either. We are always looking for balance which is so hard to get. I think we get there.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 hours ago, Weather Will said:

I learned the hard way last year that if the PNA approaches -3 or lower standard deviation the rest of the indices don't matter for the Mid Atlantic.  Hopefully that does not happen but it is a possibility that can't be completely discounted at this time.  The weekly control, yes I know just one member, is a torch Christmas week.  That is a warning shot....

The PNA stands for Pacific-North America, so it's partially calculated over our region. 1/3 of the PNA is in the N. Pacific, over the Aleutian islands in Alaska, 1/3 is on the West Coast, and 1/3 the East coast. Therefore, if the PNA like -3, that's because there's usually a ridge on the east coast downstream.  

[nj2va]

2 hours ago, Weather Will said:

I have not given up on the last week of December yet.  And it is not the end of the world if the can gets kicked down the road a couple weeks into mid January. I never said throw the winter away. But I am pointing out that the ensembles should start showing a shift toward an eastern trough toward the end of their runs by the end of next weekend if the holiday week has any winter potential.

**Checks date…..

Yes, indeed it’s still December 2.  

But we’re talking about how apparently some are still holding onto hope for 4 weeks from now.  

I think people need to stop looking at 600 hour extended model runs.  

[Weather Will]

WB latest 12Z GEFS Day 11-16.