December Mid/Long Range Discussion

[wxdude64]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

Only when it’s dry lol

^^ truth^^

[Stormchaserchuck1]

18z gfs has a pretty impressive Alaskan blizzard

That cold around Greenland and Alaska at the surface is what I like to see for a gradual cold pattern.. cool source regions. 

[ldub23]

18Z also has this

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AND it snows and snows and snows

 

[stormy]

18 z GFS says warmer than normal the next 10 days.   Beyond that is fantasy-land.

[87storms]

18Z also has this
 
 
 
 
 

 

 
 
AND it snows and snows and snows
 

Actually one of the more normal ways to get snow here.

[WinterWxLuvr]

20 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

18Z also has this

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AND it snows and snows and snows

 

I’m sure it’s a lock

[Shaulov4]

7 minutes ago, stormy said:

18 z GFS says warmer than normal the next 10 days.   Beyond that is fantasy-land.

I wouldn't discount the progression of how the pattern would get us there. As for the temps there is certainly a battle between that eastern trough and pacific forcing, while Central US will definitely see warmer than normal temps, I wouldn't be surprised to see the east stay pretty average. Btw I believe it was RD who once said "watch what comes after warm up". 

[CAPE]

I noticed earlier today the GEPS has a bit of a signal for east coast snow mid month. The general look is actually pretty good with a -NAO and lower heights off the Canadian Maritimes. Pacific is serviceable.

[Terpeast]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I noticed earlier today the GEPS has a bit of a signal for east coast snow mid month. The general look is actually pretty good with a -NAO and lower heights off the Canadian Maritimes. Pacific is serviceable.

Classic split flow pattern out west

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Classic split flow pattern out west

I mean, it is the Canadian, but there was also a hint for something on the EPS and the GEFS actually south of us.       

[Terpeast]

15 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I mean, it is the Canadian, but there was also a hint for something on the EPS and the GEFS actually south of us.       

Yeah its one of the key things I look for in a nino, a trough in the SW isn’t a bad thing as long as we have a ridge over the top to bring colder air to us with an active STJ south of us. If all model ensembles are still showing this inside day 10, we’ll have something to track 

[LP08]

37 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’m sure it’s a lock

Guaranteed?

[Solution Man]

18 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Guaranteed?

Yep Sure

[stormy]

1 hour ago, Shaulov4 said:

I wouldn't discount the progression of how the pattern would get us there. As for the temps there is certainly a battle between that eastern trough and pacific forcing, while Central US will definitely see warmer than normal temps, I wouldn't be surprised to see the east stay pretty average. Btw I believe it was RD who once said "watch what comes after warm up". 

I see some merit in your thoughts.

Looking beyond 10 days, the GEFS  H5 charts find a trough developing along the west coast of California/Oregon.  Not Good with a zonal east coast.

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

I noticed earlier today the GEPS has a bit of a signal for east coast snow mid month. The general look is actually pretty good with a -NAO and lower heights off the Canadian Maritimes. Pacific is serviceable.

[CAPE]

13 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

S

I

G

N

A

L

!

!

!

[CAPE]

Latest GEFS and Euro MJO forecasts have the enhanced convection well into Phase 7 and approaching phase 8 at mid month.

[CAPE]

Faint signal

Modest signal

Strong signal

Hint?

Suggestion?

Indication?

What it's fucking saying? 

[WinterWxLuvr]

24 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Faint signal

Modest signal

Strong signal

Hint?

Suggestion?

Indication?

What it's fucking saying? 

Ok I’ll translate ….

The 324 hour gfs is money.

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Ok I’ll translate ….

The 324 hour gfs is money.

I generally pay little to no attention to op run solutions beyond day 7 unless there is ensemble support over multiple model cycles.

[Spartman]

3 hours ago, stormy said:

18 z GFS says warmer than normal the next 10 days.   Beyond that is fantasy-land.

December 2014 says hello

[Maestrobjwa]

Is there a such thing as a rainy clipper? Lol

[yoda]

00z Euro has some mixed precipitation Tuesday night... very light... but could see some snow showers 

[CAPE]

Op run disclaimer, but the 6z GFS setup is how it can snow with a less than ideal Pacific pattern. Pretty textbook in the NA. There have been indications on the means for something mid month. Verbatim this would take care of the PSU correlation issue and then some.

This is close to an ideal surface pressure configuration, and the result of a well timed upper ridge over Greenland with an h5 vortex near the 50-50 position.

[WxUSAF]

Pretty gross look at the end of all 3 ensemble systems. Hope they’re either wrong or that’s a transient look. 

[CAPE]

22 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Pretty gross look at the end of all 3 ensemble systems. Hope they’re either wrong or that’s a transient look. 

Seems to be a lot of spread among the members for mid month. On the mean the h5 look out west has certainly degraded, and the overall pattern implies very mild weather for central and eastern US. I took a look at the surface temp panels on the 0z EPS and about 23 of the 50 have below normal temps for the east. A chunk of those are well below normal.

[WxUSAF]

13 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Seems to be a lot of spread among the members for mid month. On the mean the h5 look out west has certainly degraded, and the overall pattern implies very mild weather for central and eastern US. I took a look at the surface temp panels on the 0z EPS and about 23 of the 50 have below normal temps for the east. A chunk of those are well below normal.

Maybe some members trying to kill the MJO prematurely in phase 6 or 7 vs continuing into 7-8-1? Dunno, just guessing/grasping at straws. Strat PV orientation doesn’t seem to jive with cold air in western North America, so not sure what would produce that. 

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Maybe some members trying to kill the MJO prematurely in phase 6 or 7 vs continuing into 7-8-1? Dunno, just guessing/grasping at straws. Strat PV orientation doesn’t seem to jive with cold air in western North America, so not sure what would produce that. 

Judah has some thoughts

 

[CAPE]

10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Maybe some members trying to kill the MJO prematurely in phase 6 or 7 vs continuing into 7-8-1? Dunno, just guessing/grasping at straws. Strat PV orientation doesn’t seem to jive with cold air in western North America, so not sure what would produce that. 

It's probably a bit of both(SPV state/MJO progression). My wag is we see some improvement in the advertised pattern on the means over the next several runs for the mid month+ period.

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GEFS PNA can't get this to stay positive who cares about everything else.