December Mid/Long Range Discussion

[nj2va]

It’s nice when a threat shows up in the MR.  

[mattie g]

10 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Lol, it’s a sweet run. Very close to a solid storm.

Temps up top are actually pretty damn good. Just sucks that we're trying to make up for the upcoming mild-up on the ground.

[brooklynwx99]

GFS has been steadily trending towards something there. very thread-the-needle, but worth an eye

[SnowenOutThere]

14 minutes ago, mattie g said:

I was about to post this. Trough digs nicely and is trying to get that low under us. If temps can cooperate, we might be onto something.

Is unfortunate its at the temp max of the day, would probably be a lot easier to get snow into the urban areas if it was timed 12 hours sooner or later. Still exciting to see!

[brooklynwx99]

the pattern on the GFS is actually pretty great: potent +PNA, deep S/W diving into the OH Valley, 50/50 ULL, and a west-based -NAO

the big caveat is that it's early, so 1) longer wavelengths, so it can't wrap up as easily, and 2) it's fighting climo

 

[mattie g]

3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Is unfortunate its at the temp max of the day, would probably be a lot easier to get snow into the urban areas if it was timed 12 hours sooner or later. Still exciting to see!

Verbatim, it's a decent amount of white rain, but a few small changes in timing or the sharpness of that trough and we could pick up a slushy mulch-topper.

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Verbatim, it's a decent amount of white rain, but a few small changes in timing or the sharpness of that trough and we could pick up a PSU inch-topper

@mattie g I know ya got me on ignore but regardless...fixed 

[brooklynwx99]

GEFS looks better with the trailing wave and +PNA

[mattie g]

10 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

@mattie g I know ya got me on ignore but regardless...fixed 

I do? If so...lol.

[DarkSharkWX]

GEFS improved

[yoda]

Well we did use to get snow on Dec 5...

Remember remember the 5th of December...

[WxUSAF]

7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

GEFS looks better with the trailing wave and +PNA

We want that ridge standing straight N-S and not rolling over quickly. That’s the danger to watch for. 

Just now, yoda said:

Well we did use to get snow on Dec 5...

Remember remember the 5th of December...

It’s forecast for December 6th 

[Maestrobjwa]

8 minutes ago, mattie g said:

I do? If so...lol.

Oh I had assumed you did, lol Oops (but just know I'm making the effort to be better here)

[DarkSharkWX]

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

Well we did use to get snow on Dec 5...

Remember remember the 5th of December...

so many times in the 2000s lmao

[CAPE]

24 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the pattern on the GFS is actually pretty great: potent +PNA, deep S/W diving into the OH Valley, 50/50 ULL, and a west-based -NAO

the big caveat is that it's early, so 1) longer wavelengths, so it can't wrap up as easily, and 2) it's fighting climo

 

One big difference between this run and previous runs is better wave spacing- really allows the early week storm to function as a useful 50-50 low for the potential clipper. A ton of h5 vorticity flying around so the run to run differences shall continue for awhile.

[Eskimo Joe]

12z GFS op @ HR 153.

[CAPE]

10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

12z GFS op @ HR 153.

what this?

You know I'd lock it up.

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

what this?

You know I'd lock it up.

It's nice. Hope this isn't a head fake. We'll see how we're looking by Sunday night.

[CAPE]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

It's nice. Hope this isn't a head fake. We'll see how we're looking by Sunday night.

We are inside 7 days and the signal for that window is getting a bit stronger. But yeah a long way to go, and it's a clipper. Not exactly our bread and butter for accumulating snow.

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

We are inside 7 days and the signal for that window is getting a bit stronger. But yeah a long way to go, and it's a clipper. Not exactly our bread and butter for accumulating snow.

We couldn’t even get the models to show similar solutions until like hour 120 last year. Let’s see if we can put together at least back to back similar runs. 

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

We are inside 7 days and the signal for that window is getting a bit stronger. But yeah a long way to go, and it's a clipper. Not exactly our bread and butter for accumulating snow.

Just want to get on the board. 2" - 4" is perfect.

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Just want to get on the board. 2" - 4" is perfect.

1.01” beats last years total 

[stormtracker]

16 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

It's nice. Hope this isn't a head fake. We'll see how we're looking by Sunday night.

Of course it's a head fake.  It hasn't remained consistent with every run.   But it's interesting that the H5 map does trend a lil better with every run.

[stormy]

I won't believe it until Augusta Phil says it.  I have an appointment with him at 5:45.

[CAPE]

Improvement on the 12z GEM. At the surface it's still not much but at least gets a bit of precip east of the mountains this run.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Still.. with 50/50 low, -NAO, and GOA low, it's close to the setup of a big storm. My main concern is warmer temps as the PNA is trying to go negative as the trough pushes through. 

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Still.. with 50/50 low, -NAO, and GOA low, it's close to the setup of a big storm. My main concern is warmer temps as the PNA is trying to go negative as the trough pushes through. 

So you are concerned the snow would melt? It always does Chuck.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

13 minutes ago, CAPE said:

So you are concerned the snow would melt? It always does Chuck.

It may adjust so the later part of the storm is warm, while the earlier part is cooler, if it digs deeper. I don't like that Aleutian high popping when the trough is starting to dig across the region (hr144).  I'm talking about during-for the storm. 

[Wonderdog]

Last year was a Nina.

Sent from my SM-S911U using Tapatalk

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Last year was a Nina.

Sent from my SM-S911U using Tapatalk
 

I'm on work travel next Wed....get your shovel ready sir.  Me being out of town pushes this into the "just might see flakes" category