December Mid/Long Range Discussion

[Jebman]

27 minutes ago, 87storms said:

2013/14 and 14/15 were each 4 month long winters, minimum. This year is giving off average vibes…which would still be a significant improvement over last year.

You wanna know about 2013-14? Just have a look at my sig. lol

[WxUSAF]

A lot to like here, just don’t look at surface temps.

[Ralph Wiggum]

16 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

A lot to like here, just don’t look at surface temps.

 

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GEFS,  will take every drop of rain early next week.

[Eskimo Joe]

That Alaska trough is killing us and it has stayng power....

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

That Alaska trough is killing us and it has stayng power....

Nino. That trough was there during many of our biggest snowstorms. Most ninos aren’t that cold. The arctic is usually closed off.  I’ve said this winter is a good test case. Can we still snow absent some 100% perfect epo/pna ridge that dumps a direct arctic shot into the east. Because that isn’t how 90% of our big snowstorms have come historically.  

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Nino. That trough was there during many of our biggest snowstorms. Most ninos aren’t that cold. The arctic is usually closed off.  I’ve said this winter is a good test case. Can we still snow absent some 100% perfect epo/pna ridge that dumps a direct arctic shot into the east. Because that isn’t how 90% of our big snowstorms have come historically.  

That trough is a feature of a Nino, but its position/strength can vary. Ideally it would be a bit further west, and that might be what we need going forward.

[CAPE]

This is a better look for injecting some cold air into our nearby source region. Euro weeklies are similar for the same period.

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

That trough is a feature of a Nino, but its position/strength can vary. Ideally it would be a bit further west, and that might be what we need going forward.

It can be, we’ve had nino years that were even more ideal in that regard, 2002-3 for example, and they can be colder. But the narrative here is basically that we have to toss all Nina’s and neutral winters now…super nino and extremely east based ninos aren’t good, and now we’re going to have to toss even more favorable ninos unless the north pac vortex sets up exactly 100% perfectly?   I didn’t mean this is a test case for can it snow ever. I know given the right list of variables coinciding we can still get a lot of snow. But how likely is it?  The test I mean is can we still EASILY win in a pattern that requires domestic cold absent needing 500 things to be perfect. 

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

This is a better look for injecting some cold air into our nearby source region. Euro weeklies are similar for the same period.

But that’s a worse look for actually getting a big snowstorm. Again big cold and big snowstorms are two different patterns. 

[CAPE]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

But that’s a worse look for actually getting a big snowstorm. Again big cold and big snowstorms are two different patterns. 

A pattern like that can produce snow though. I know you are hunting KUs, but to me any snow is good. Give me a few moderate events like 2 years ago and I am good. For the record I think the h5 looks we are seeing can deliver once we get into our more favorable climo period. What we don't want to see is a repeat of 1997-98 esp in the current climate regime.

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

A pattern like that can produce snow though. I know you are hunting KUs, but to me any snow is good. Give me a few moderate events like 2 years ago and I am good. For the record I think the h5 looks we are seeing can deliver once we get into our more favorable climo period. What we don't want to see is a repeat of 1997-98 esp in the current climate regime.

if we had the Dec 4-6 pattern in Feb it would be so much more favorable with more cold air and shorter wavelengths. it's too early to rely on a lack of Arctic air

[Benjamn3]

19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But that’s a worse look for actually getting a big snowstorm. Again big cold and big snowstorms are two different patterns. 

I really keep my expectations low, so just having cold around for the holidays is good enough for me. In the last almost 20 years it’s a rare feat to get snow in DEC in western VA. So all I want is no Xmas torch. Lol 

[Eskimo Joe]

38 minutes ago, CAPE said:

That trough is a feature of a Nino, but its position/strength can vary. Ideally it would be a bit further west, and that might be what we need going forward.

Exactly 

44 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Nino. That trough was there during many of our biggest snowstorms. Most ninos aren’t that cold. The arctic is usually closed off.  I’ve said this winter is a good test case. Can we still snow absent some 100% perfect epo/pna ridge that dumps a direct arctic shot into the east. Because that isn’t how 90% of our big snowstorms have come historically.  

The positioning is bad.

[CAPE]

Next Thursday the 6z GFS has some precip from an inverted trough associated with an offshore low that develops via the clipper shortwave energy. Verbatim its rain though.

[WxUSAF]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

This is a better look for injecting some cold air into our nearby source region. Euro weeklies are similar for the same period.

I like seeing a Scandinavian ridge showing up on guidance toward mid-month. That should slowly retrograde and help reinforce a -NAO. 

[CAPE]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

I like seeing a Scandinavian ridge showing up on guidance toward mid-month. That should slowly retrograde and help reinforce a -NAO. 

Agreed. That plus a little westward shift of the NE PAC low would set us up nicely for early Jan.

[WxUSAF]

13 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Agreed. That plus a little westward shift of the NE PAC low would set us up nicely for early Jan.

Plus the ensembles seem to keep adjusting to more -AO which I also quite enjoy! People are gonna gripe going forward even if we can pull a small event out of our hats next week, but I still think we will have chances for snow and cold this month. This does not look like December 2015 at all. 

[mappy]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

A pattern like that can produce snow though. I know you are hunting KUs, but to me any snow is good. Give me a few moderate events like 2 years ago and I am good. For the record I think the h5 looks we are seeing can deliver once we get into our more favorable climo period. What we don't want to see is a repeat of 1997-98 esp in the current climate regime.

Thank you for being a voice of reason. PSU is hunting big snow for his backyard and his backyard only. Sooner people realize that, sooner they will stop hanging onto his every word. 

[brooklynwx99]

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Plus the ensembles seem to keep adjusting to more -AO which I also quite enjoy! People are gonna gripe going forward even if we can pull a small event out of our hats next week, but I still think we will have chances for snow and cold this month. This does not look like December 2015 at all. 

honestly, just seeing the strong -NAO/-AO this early really bodes well for the rest of winter. it's a pretty strong departure from previous strong/super Ninos. AK is similar, but the polar domain is not. given that the -AO/-NAO is going to be a big factor, it'll set us up if we do pull off a -NAO Dec

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

Thank you for being a voice of reason. PSU is hunting big snow for his backyard and his backyard only. Sooner people realize that, sooner they will stop hanging onto his every word. 

I suppose we all have a criteria for what makes a good winter. Part of that is based on one's exact location, climo etc. I think most people here just want winter to feel like winter for the most part, including a few occasions where there is some snow otg.

[Eskimo Joe]

19 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Plus the ensembles seem to keep adjusting to more -AO which I also quite enjoy! People are gonna gripe going forward even if we can pull a small event out of our hats next week, but I still think we will have chances for snow and cold this month. This does not look like December 2015 at all. 

Just need snow. I'll gladly take a 2" - 4" event. 

[Terpeast]

5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Just need snow. I'll gladly take a 2" - 4" event. 

Same for now. The big dog usually comes late Jan thru Feb

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Same for now. The big dog usually comes late Jan thru Feb

I have no illusions about a big storm in December. The 12/2009 event was a total fluke and we'll almost certainly never see something like that again in our lifetimes. A 3" - 5" even for Christmas would be amazing this year. Maybe we score?

 

 

[anotherman]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I have no illusions about a big storm in December. The 12/2009 event was a total fluke and we'll almost certainly never see something like that again in our lifetimes. A 3" - 5" even for Christmas would be amazing this year. Maybe we score?

 

 

In December 2020, we got 12 inches in York County, PA.  Not saying it's common but you never know.

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, anotherman said:

In December 2020, we got 12 inches in York County, PA.  Not saying it's common but you never know.

Lancaster County has a more favorable climo for that compared to BWI, DCA, and IAD. If I could move back to Lancaster, I would. 

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, anotherman said:

In December 2020, we got 12 inches in York County, PA.  Not saying it's common but you never know.

yep huge storm...western Loudoun got 8 inches.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, mappy said:

Thank you for being a voice of reason. PSU is hunting big snow for his backyard and his backyard only. Sooner people realize that, sooner they will stop hanging onto his every word. 

There are different discussions going on here.  And as @brooklynwx99 pointed out, it's not unexpected for the current imperfections in the pacific to be a big problem in late November or early December.  This is not a reason for panic yet.  Almost all of our early season snowstorms in the last 20 years have come via a EPO/PNA ridge combo that allows anomalously cold air to discharge into the east.  We don't have that.  

But two things can be true.  I wanted to point out that the current pacific look that many are calling bad is actually one that has produced some of our biggest snowstorms throughout history.  I am not worried that it is not working right now.  If we get this look in January and February and it too warm, that is a problem.  Two different things.  

 @CAPE is correct that there are other avenues to just getting "some snow" around here than the canonical "OMG LOOK AT THAT H5" reds and blues in all the right places look.  Yes I would prefer 20" of snow but I enjoy any and all snow.  But... again two things can be true... if the single most likely path to snowstorms around here doesn't work, that is a big problem, regardless of whether we can still get some snow through other less canonical means.  And the pattern I am describing is not just a KU thing.  We have had MANY 3-6" snowstorms where something didn't go exactly perfectly from those patterns also.  

Basically in a nutshell what I am pointing out is the pattern that is the most conducive to producing a favorable storm track for snowstorms here is actually NOT the same as the one that produces our coldest airmasses.  There are some rare cases where the two can overlap but that isn't the most common.  It's not a good thing if the pattern that produces the track we need for storms is no longer cold enough to produce snow.  We have discussed that the next nino would be a good test case for that.  Right now is way too early to make conclusions on that.  And I am on the record expecting it can still work, I've called for above normal snow.  But I don't want to hear "this pattern is just no good" if its not working in January and February.  That pattern has been our best most reliable snow producer over the years, losing that as a path to snow would be devastating out our snow climo.  I highly doubt that is true yet.  

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

Latest gfs shows a tendency for the troughs dipping into US that currently are too far east imo slowly becoming more aligned with the Mississippi River as time progresses which I think gives us better opportunities. 

[TSSN+]

12z gfs close. Just drop it a bit more south.