December Mid/Long Range Discussion

[stormy]

  On 12/15/2023 at 9:00 PM, CAPE said:

You do realize that is the mean of 30 individual members... no, probably not.

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Your late....................... I absolutely know this is an ensemble of 30 members . These 30 members need to get their act together.  Perhaps the resolution is bland, but this is not good. This thread of people are obsessive with details of 5, 10 and 30 days into the future. How can you rationalize this kind of crap when so many are instructed to only listen to the GEFS and throw out the deterministic GFS.

Maybe we should we throw out the GEFS??????

[stormy]

  On 12/15/2023 at 10:59 PM, stormy said:

Your late....................... I absolutely know this is an ensemble of 30 members . These 30 members need to get their act together.  Perhaps the resolution is bland, but this is not good. This thread of people are obsessive with details of 5, 10 and 30 days into the future. How can you rationalize this kind of crap when so many are instructed to only listen to the GEFS and throw out the deterministic GFS.

Maybe we should we throw out the GEFS??????

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CAPE : Please don't believe that I have any personal animosity toward you. I guess that I just have a personal expectation for a model or ensemble to focus on details accurately. When they don't, I don't like.

[Wxdavis5784]

  On 12/15/2023 at 9:40 PM, nj2va said:

Wow, so basically this "can kicking its time to punt all of January" is turning out to be like 48 hours of "can kicking."  I hope the debs can handle it.

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100%

[WinterWxLuvr]

New thread. Let’s shake it up 

 

[CAPE]

  On 12/15/2023 at 11:15 PM, stormy said:

CAPE : Please don't believe that I have any personal animosity toward you. I guess that I just have a personal expectation for a model or ensemble to focus on details accurately. When they don't, I don't like.

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Emotions are irrelevant in this here thread. Take it to the thread of Panic.

[jayyy]

  On 12/15/2023 at 7:03 PM, WEATHER53 said:

An overreaction occurs when around Hudson is +10 to 15 with failure to realize that air mass is still 20 to 25F

Bingo. +10 in Canada in January is still quite cold. Eastern Canada is “torched” is a wildly inaccurate representation of what that shows. Departure from average maps are not the same as temp maps. It can be +10 in eastern Canada and be negative here


.

[Yeoman]

  On 12/15/2023 at 9:40 PM, nj2va said:

Wow, so basically this "can kicking its time to punt all of January" is turning out to be like 48 hours of "can kicking."  I hope the debs can handle it.

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They'll only need to handle it for a few more hours until the next run shows the exact opposite.

[stormy]

  On 12/15/2023 at 11:23 PM, CAPE said:

Emotions are irrelevant in this here thread. Take it to the thread of Panic.

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I have absolutely no panic. I am simply disappointed that so much of what the best and brightest in the meterological world base their assumptions on is so corrupted. No wonder their wrong more than 50% of the time.  We should expect better.

Of course, considering the world we live in, it is almost certain.

[stormy]

18 z GFS hammers the LP from Myrtle to Norfolk.

2 - 3 inches common.

[psuhoffman]

Webb has become a whole clown now 

https://x.com/psuhoffman/status/1735818062962524506?s=46&t=JDI46BeqOMUGnLaA2k6MTw

[WxUSAF]

  On 12/16/2023 at 12:24 AM, psuhoffman said:

Webb has become a whole clown now 

https://x.com/psuhoffman/status/1735818062962524506?s=46&t=JDI46BeqOMUGnLaA2k6MTw

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Need more snow over Nevada and Utah or our winter is doomed 

[psuhoffman]

  On 12/16/2023 at 12:36 AM, WxUSAF said:

Need more snow over Nevada and Utah or our winter is doomed 

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Ask him how a western trough worked out the last few years 

[stormy]

The GFS and GEFS still show a storm 28 - 30.

GFS brings an inland runner with rain.

The GEFS still likes the coastal solution. The 850 temps. are more reasonable for some snow from Staunton to D.C. with the 06z GEFS run.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

  On 12/15/2023 at 5:07 AM, cbmclean said:

I thought El Nino vs La Nina was modulated by the PDO as opposed to the AMO.

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PDO and AMO have historically, gone through cyclical phases in the last few decades. This makes both of them modulate indexes vs global warming. It may be a coincidence, but since this latest +AMO phase started in 1995, we have seen 15 La Nina's, and 9 El Nino's (including current one). I do think that in the 2nd half of this +AMO phase, the El Nino's will catch up.