December Mid/Long Range Discussion

[yoda]

1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

If we somehow get snowed on again next week we may have something cooking this winter.  Pretty rough  pattern overall so maybe we have some WDI going on.

May the Force be with us... or maybe, may the odds be ever in your favor?

[HighStakes]

5 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

If we somehow get snowed on again next week we may have something cooking this winter.  Pretty rough  pattern overall so maybe we have some WDI going on.

Wait a minute. You must not have heard. It's a "thread the needle" type deal. You would be crazy to think it could snow twice in December almost within a week. December is the new September. 

[yoda]

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/difference/

Really cool link - h/t @CoastalWx

[stormy]

The ICON loses interest

[Chris78]

3 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

Wait a minute. You must not have heard. It's a "thread the needle" type deal. You would be crazy to think it could snow twice in December almost within a week. December is the new September. 

The icon did take my snow away at 18z

[HighStakes]

1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

The icon did take my snow away at 18z

It's ok! Maestro was already out.

[Ji]

Most of the area got a coating just before new years and 1-3” around Jan 8th. It’s wasn’t as snowless as you make it you were just getting frustrated because the pattern had way more potential and we were hecs hunting. 

1-3 between Dec 19 and Jan 30 is snowless. Except for the 3 blizzards that winter sucked ass lol

[NorthArlington101]

4 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

The icon did take my snow away at 18z

Important tradeoff that will guarantee a better GFS run. Soul for a soul

[jayyy]

Important tradeoff that will guarantee a better GFS run. Soul for a soul

Soul stone baby

[NorthArlington101]

GFS is more EURO-like through hr93. Fairly big shift, though worth noting of course the EURO didn't give us a fantastic outcome anyway

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

GFS is more EURO-like through hr93. Fairly big shift, though worth noting of course the EURO didn't give us a fantastic outcome anyway

Run-over-run change... pretty clearly a step toward a better vort pass. Does that lead to any real outcome? Someone smarter can decide

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

The icon did take my snow away at 18z

A couple issues with that trailing shortwave- it's more of a vorticity lobe than a sharp shortwave, and there is a lack of moisture feeding in ahead of it with dry air also advecting in from the NW. Maybe some snow/rain showers but an organized storm looks like an outside chance imo.

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Run-over-run change... pretty clearly a step toward a better vort pass. Does that lead to any real outcome? Someone smarter can decide

not yet, but still a pretty big shift nonetheless 

[NorthArlington101]

as I try to learn during a relatively quiet period - for our area, we'd want this "vort max(?)" closer to the NC/VA border, correct? and ideally tilted negatively instead of positively?

[Chris78]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

A couple issues with that trailing shortwave- it's more of a vorticity lobe than a sharp shortwave, and there is a lack of moisture feeding in ahead of it with dry air also advecting in from the NW. Maybe some snow/rain showers but an organized storm looks like an outside chance imo.

It'd be a long shot. Especially with no blocking.

[Chris78]

Pretty rare to have a storm that strong in Goergia/South Carolina. 

Sub 985 at the Latitude is impressive. 

[87storms]

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

as I try to learn during a relatively quiet period - for our area, we'd want this "vort max(?)" closer to the NC/VA border, correct? and ideally tilted negatively instead of positively?

I don't like the trajectory of that vort at all.  We need it digging further west imo.  Looks like nothing more than a nw flow/snow shower-y type of system.

On the bright side, it appears we may be heading towards a pattern that produces signficant storms that are more spaced out instead of the constant barrage of vorts riding the northern US that typically bring nothing more than clouds and a breeze.

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

It'd be a long shot. Especially with no blocking.

The bigger problem is it's too close on the heels of our juicy rainstorm. Notice there isn't any notable surface low development on the GFS. It would take a big dig by a sharp shortwave to get it done.

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GFS rain blizzard incoming....

 

[WxUSAF]

11 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

as I try to learn during a relatively quiet period - for our area, we'd want this "vort max(?)" closer to the NC/VA border, correct? and ideally tilted negatively instead of positively?

Yes and yes ideally 

[aldie 22]

I did have thunder last week just saying 

[Chris78]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GFS rain blizzard incoming....

 

It's a freaking monster of a miller A.

Can you imagine a 1040 MB high pressure  sitting to our NW with temps in the low 20s with that storm attacking from the south lol

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

32 minutes ago, Ji said:

1-3 between Dec 19 and Jan 30 is snowless. Except for the 3 blizzards that winter sucked ass lol

They melted too fast. 02-03 was a much better Winter.  I would trade off that big High pressure over Greenland lately.. 

[Weather Will]

1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

It's a freaking monster of a miller A.

Can you imagine a 1040 MB high pressure  sitting to our NW with temps in the low 20s with that storm attacking from the south lol

 

That will be our January 20 version!!!

[Ji]

3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

That will be our January 20 version!!!

for the carolinas....we will be high and dry

[psuhoffman]

40 minutes ago, Ji said:

1-3 between Dec 19 and Jan 30 is snowless. Except for the 3 blizzards that winter sucked ass lol

Except for the 3 blizzards many still got more snow that winter than like 5 of the last 7!  There was a 3-5” snow for the western burbs Dec 5.  A coating late Dec. 1-3 early Jan.  4-7” late Jan. 3-5” early Feb. 1-3” in MD late Feb.  And that’s ignoring the ridiculousness of “except for 3 blizzards” but yes I know you’re mostly kidding. 

[Jersey Andrew]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Except for the 3 blizzards many still got more snow that winter than like 5 of the last 7!  There was a 3-5” snow for the western burbs Dec 5.  A coating late Dec. 1-3 early Jan.  4-7” late Jan. 3-5” early Feb. 1-3” in MD late Feb.  And that’s ignoring the ridiculousness of “except for 3 blizzards” but yes I know you’re mostly kidding. 

I’m fearful of a ‘97-98 scenario where there is no cold air in the DC area. Maybe that PV split delivers in January but even Judah Cohen is starting to hedge his bets.

[Deck Pic]

On 12/14/2023 at 5:41 PM, psuhoffman said:

Except for the 3 blizzards many still got more snow that winter than like 5 of the last 7!  There was a 3-5” snow for the western burbs Dec 5.  A coating late Dec. 1-3 early Jan.  4-7” late Jan. 3-5” early Feb. 1-3” in MD late Feb.  And that’s ignoring the ridiculousness of “except for 3 blizzards” but yes I know you’re mostly kidding. 

Yeah..This was in NW DC.  The 1/7-8 event stuck around a bit iirc

2009-10: 67.5"
12/5/09: 1.5", 12/18-19/09: 18.5", 1/7-8/10: 1.5", 1/30/10: 6.5", 2/2-3/10: 4.25", 2/5-6/10: 22.25", 2/9-10/10: 12.5", 2/15/10: 0.25", 2/27/10: 0.25"

[WinterWxLuvr]

57 minutes ago, stormy said:

The ICON loses interest

Shocking development 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

The +PNA correlates with cold in January, but not so much December

Dec +PNA:

https://ibb.co/tbtHzyR

https://ibb.co/MC130Pk

Jan +PNA:

https://ibb.co/ZGQMXy0

https://ibb.co/cw1tPVc

0.1 to 0.5 difference. Models have us going +PNA at hr204-384+ but we are more -PNA before hr204. El Nino is the mechanism behind potential +PNA, and at +2.0c, that looks to still be here in January.