December Mid/Long Range Discussion

[87storms]

CMC rainfall totals are wild. Drought buster stuff.

[LeesburgWx]

Are we actually about to back into something here? 

[Heisy]

NSFW



.

[SnowenOutThere]

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

zoomed in for the weenies (me).

That local jackpot right over my backyard, LOCK IT IN!!

[NorthArlington101]

2 minutes ago, Heisy said:

NSFW



.

#dusted at the surface. Might get going further north. Still... exciting!

[jewell2188]

What are the winds looking like Sunday/monday??

[87storms]

Are we actually about to back into something here? 

Looks like we’re relying on that trailing vort. The initial coastal is a rainer, albeit a beneficial one.

[WxUSAF]

22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I guess we could live with a crap longwave pattern if we just keep getting lucky with thread the needle perfect secondary developments and h5 cutoff lows.  

If we pull another rabbit out of the hat somehow, I’m doing to double my snowfall prediction for the year because it’s clearly one of THOSE winters.

[stormy]

12z ICON dumps snow Tuesday/Wednesday

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, stormy said:

12z ICON dumps snow Tuesday/Wednesday

 

[NorthArlington101]

GEFS looks like a tick in the right direction with the vort pass, FWIW. Doesn't result in much digital snow, but trackable

[WinterWxLuvr]

GFS doesn’t even have that follow up. I’m going with the snowiest model. Usually works well

[TSSN+]

24 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

GFS doesn’t even have that follow up. I’m going with the snowiest model. Usually works well

I use the snow model. Shows a snow storm every other day. 

[Heisy]

GFS doesn’t even have that follow up. I’m going with the snowiest model. Usually works well

Gfs trended better with diving the N/S farther S.
It does have the same piece. Just not far enough S yet.

Ukie on board as well btw. Focuses over NYC though. At this range just focusing on the larger features.


.

[brooklynwx99]

36 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

GEFS looks like a tick in the right direction with the vort pass, FWIW. Doesn't result in much digital snow, but trackable

GEPS made a significant shift in the right direction

 

[Ji]

7 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Gfs trended better with diving the N/S farther S.
It does have the same piece. Just not far enough S yet.

Ukie on board as well btw. Focuses over NYC though. At this range just focusing on the larger features.


.

unless we have Feb 2010 blocking...we usually dont do well here(40 South) with this kind of setup...but we will see

[Terpeast]

9 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

GEPS made a significant shift in the right direction

 

540 line shifting from canada to south VA. Big shift

still has a pos tilt to it though 

[aldie 22]

I don't know guys...this seems like a longshot to me

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

I don't know guys...this seems like a longshot to me

It still is, but the abrupt changes only tell us that the models either have no idea what’s going to happen, or they are starting to key in on something. 

[SnowenOutThere]

2 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

I don't know guys...this seems like a longshot to me

This seems like one of those storms that sometimes show up on the models but will pretty much never actually happen. Who knows maybe we'll get lucky, after all it somehow managed to snow this Monday. 

[Ji]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

It still is, but the abrupt changes only tell us that the models either have no idea what’s going to happen, or they are starting to key in on something. 

the icon was built for this

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

It still is, but the abrupt changes only tell us that the models either have no idea what’s going to happen, or they are starting to key in on something. 

if the ECMWF holds and everything remains like this at 00z, then probably. that trend in the CMC and GFS is pretty sharp

[brooklynwx99]

personally, I was expecting the GFS and CMC to hold serve and for the ECMWF to get way flatter. this morning surprised me

[DarkSharkWX]

yeah this is p surprising we act have to watch this now probably, models are going to be struggling af with this 

[North Balti Zen]

9 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

I don't know guys...this seems like a longshot to me

Lol - the sarcasm button was needed 

[WinterWxLuvr]

21 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

I don't know guys...this seems like a longshot to me

You may be onto something here

[SnowenOutThere]

Euro might be more interesting than its 0z run

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

Euro might be more interesting than its 0z run

I think I like what it's doing at 102. CMC-ish but better with the vort positioning, is my trying-to-get-better-at-reading-maps read.

[NorthArlington101]

Precip (rain/snow light) forming in the region at 114. MSLP off southern OBX. Good upslope run at least thus far.

Not sure it cranks in time. Light snow west of 95 by 120.

Still positively tilted. Don't think we get the jackpot this run.

[SnowenOutThere]

5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I think I like what it's doing at 102. CMC-ish but better with the vort positioning, is my trying-to-get-better-at-reading-maps read.

Manages to have a slightly more optimal phase, overall a positive change