December Mid/Long Range Discussion

[Chris78]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Would be nice to be inside 5 days not always 16. 

Better 

Need to work on getting rid of the +nao

[Ji]

Euro has a fair number of members with some snow on Dec 21. 

[Blizzard of 93]

5 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Better 

Need to work on getting rid of the +nao

Agreed & the better looks are not getting pushed back and start around day 13 or 14 on the ensembles.

[CAPE]

End of the EPS showing some improvement in the HL with the AO and EPO around neutral along with a +PNA. NA needs work but that is a serviceable look and might get some colder air working southward into central Canada with time.

[psuhoffman]

14 minutes ago, CAPE said:

End of the EPS showing some improvement in the HL with the AO and EPO around neutral along with a +PNA. NA needs work but that is a serviceable look and might get some colder air working southward into central Canada with time.

That’s definitely a first step. But so long as the nao stays positive the flow to our north will be west to east and pac maritime air will dominate. The pac trough would have to retro really far for that equation to work, see 2003 and 2015 for what that would look like. But I don’t think we’re likely to get that. Ultimately until the nao goes negative we’re going to struggle with temps and be rooting for a lot of convoluted things to go right to overcome very marginal at best thermals. 

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[Heisy]

Just for fun but the 6z euro control was about to dump on the region. Ends at 144 but that N//S was closing off in a perfect spot.

Anyway, I’m pretty intrigued if we can get this N/S to dive down. Crazy things can happen with a cutoff like that. I’d put it at very low probability, but from a meteorological-fan standpoint I’m rooting for something wild.





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[Ji]

29 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Just for fun but the 6z euro control was about to dump on the region. Ends at 144 but that N//S was closing off in a perfect spot.

Anyway, I’m pretty intrigued if we can get this N/S to dive down. Crazy things can happen with a cutoff like that. I’d put it at very low probability, but from a meteorological-fan standpoint I’m rooting for something wild.





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i counted about 10 out of 50 members that had an interesting solution at 6z....

[Heisy]

i counted about 10 out of 50 members that had an interesting solution at 6z....

Yea has a little support. Icon, ukie sort of. As mentioned on our sub I do wonder if this is just euro bias. Hard to understand how that N/S is diving so far south without a block. At least it’s something to keep an eye on.


.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

That’s definitely a first step. But so long as the nao stays positive the flow to our north will be west to east and pac maritime air will dominate. The pac trough would have to retro really far for that equation to work, see 2003 and 2015 for what that would look like. But I don’t think we’re likely to get that. Ultimately until the nao goes negative we’re going to struggle with temps and be rooting for a lot of convoluted things to go right to overcome very marginal at best thermals. 

So for now, no matter what else gets better...I'm taking a "better NAO or it didn't happen" approach, lol (since that seems to be the main villain at the moment)

[Ji]

the better looks on the ensembles towards the end of the month are painfully slow

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

the better looks on the ensembles towards the end of the month are painfully slow

it's probably going to be that way, but it'll get there

[paulythegun]

Benny Hill Music (6z gfs, hours 132-270)

[CAPE]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

That’s definitely a first step. But so long as the nao stays positive the flow to our north will be west to east and pac maritime air will dominate. The pac trough would have to retro really far for that equation to work, see 2003 and 2015 for what that would look like. But I don’t think we’re likely to get that. Ultimately until the nao goes negative we’re going to struggle with temps and be rooting for a lot of convoluted things to go right to overcome very marginal at best thermals. 

The extended products still suggest the NE PAC trough retros back over the Aleutians with an EPO ridge for early Jan, but they have been doing that for awhile now. There are also hints of improvement in the NA. My guess is we will see general improvement in the Pacific over the next couple weeks, and increasing chances of -NAO episodes mid Jan forward.

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The extended products still suggest the NE PAC trough retros back over the Aleutians with an EPO ridge for early Jan, but they have been doing that for awhile now. There are also hints of improvement in the NA. My guess is we will see general improvement in the Pacific over the next couple weeks, and increasing chances of -NAO episodes mid Jan forward.

It's also possible we might get the Pacific longwave pattern to retrograde just enough that a more neutral Atlantic could work also.  It's a scale, the more help we get on one side the less we need on the other.  Historically the easiest way to make this whole thing work though is if we can get a true -NAO.  That would make this whole thing a lot simpler.  But we do need the TPV to get away from Baffin.  Sitting there is going to create a strong west to east flow under it and blast maritime air across.  

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

It's also possible we might get the Pacific longwave pattern to retrograde just enough that a more neutral Atlantic could work also.  It's a scale, the more help we get on one side the less we need on the other.  Historically the easiest way to make this whole thing work though is if we can get a true -NAO.  That would make this whole thing a lot simpler.  But we do need the TPV to get away from Baffin.  Sitting there is going to create a strong west to east flow under it and blast maritime air across.  

7 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The extended products still suggest the NE PAC trough retros back over the Aleutians with an EPO ridge for early Jan, but they have been doing that for awhile now. There are also hints of improvement in the NA. My guess is we will see general improvement in the Pacific over the next couple weeks, and increasing chances of -NAO episodes mid Jan forward.

overall I think the main takeaway is that it is so much easier to get a favorable pattern than it is during a Nina, lemme tell you

[brooklynwx99]

also the ICON goes absolutely ballistic over you guys. if the NS vort really is that strong then it's possible but there's a big grain of salt right now

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

also the ICON goes absolutely ballistic over you guys. if the NS vort really is that strong then it's possible but there's a big grain of salt right now

As a handful of others have pointed out, a handful of ens members across CMC/GFS/EURO have shown a wacky solution like that. Small dots of 8". Something wacky is gonna happen after the big storm rolls through for someone.

[Heisy]

also the ICON goes absolutely ballistic over you guys. if the NS vort really is that strong then it's possible but there's a big grain of salt right now

Someone will def get a surprise if that H5 closes off and dives somewhere near the coast. Pinpointing that at this range is impossible but this is starting to gain legs. Would love the cmc
Or gfs to show it today


My gut tells me it probably ends up farther N since we don’t have a block, but who knows

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

Someone will def get a surprise if that H5 closes off and dives somewhere near the coast. Pinpointing that at this range is impossible but this is starting to gain legs. Would love the cmc
Or gfs to show it today


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the EPS actually did have a closed ULL over the Delmarva at 06z

[Heisy]

the EPS actually did have a closed ULL over the Delmarva at 06z

Yea I had mentioned even the control was about to go bonkers over the region. You’d have to get into the ccb goods. Worth tracking for sure


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[midatlanticweather]

3 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Someone will def get a surprise if that H5 closes off and dives somewhere near the coast. Pinpointing that at this range is impossible but this is starting to gain legs. Would love the cmc
Or gfs to show it today


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This has the feel of a famous miss around Christmas and a famous March that should not be talked about

 

[brooklynwx99]

there has been a pretty well defined trend to sharpen the trailing NS vort. could make things interesting if it crosses the tipping point and cuts off

[Heisy]

12z cmc might be really good… waiting for next frame that H5 looks sweet though



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[ldub23]

Icon says  let  it snow and snow and snow

 

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Heisy said:

12z cmc might be really good… waiting for next frame that H5 looks sweet though



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I can't believe they still put out those exact same maps as when I was at PSU in the 90s.  And they were crap then! 

[psuhoffman]

I guess we could live with a crap longwave pattern if we just keep getting lucky with thread the needle perfect secondary developments and h5 cutoff lows.  

[Scraff]

Who has “what does the ICON say” on their bingo card? 

[NorthArlington101]

5 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

Icon says  let  it snow and snow and snow

zoomed in for the weenies (me).

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

zoomed in for the weenies.

Fairfax is useless anyway