December Mid/Long Range Discussion

[psuhoffman]

22 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

wavebreaks are literal hell for LR ENS guidance so it makes sense that it might be getting sniffed out by OP runs. we shall see, but there is reason for optimism

Correct me if I'm wrong but I think they still haven't aligned the GEFS to the new FV3 GFS.  So they are not as cohesive as is typical of most Op/Ens tandems.  

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Correct me if I'm wrong but I think they still haven't aligned the GEFS to the new FV3 GFS.  So they are not as cohesive as is typical of most Op/Ens tandems.  

I'm not sure. I think I might have heard something about that but someone probably knows a lot more than me about that stuff

[WxUSAF]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Correct me if I'm wrong but I think they still haven't aligned the GEFS to the new FV3 GFS.  So they are not as cohesive as is typical of most Op/Ens tandems.  

 

12 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I'm not sure. I think I might have heard something about that but someone probably knows a lot more than me about that stuff

I thought that was last winter? I think the GEFS has been upgraded. @high risk?

[high risk]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

 

I thought that was last winter? I think the GEFS has been upgraded. @high risk?

  The GEFS was indeed upgraded to use the FV3 core in 2020!    https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/meg/gefsv12/

  It doesn't, however, have the changes that were made to the GFS in Version 16 in 2021.

[WxUSAF]

20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

IF, big if, things were to continue to follow a 2015/16 type pattern progression but slightly colder given the weaker enso, I would take that.  Our area just missed out on about 3 other big snow events in Jan-Mar because temps were just a few degrees too warm.  A pattern repeat of 2016 but slightly colder could be a big win.  

@40/70 Benchmark has mentioned a colder 2015-16 several times as well. I think we’d be pretty happy if that’s what we got in the end.

[brooklynwx99]

GEFS and GEPS are both seeing the changes in the Pacific. seems like it's gaining traction

[Eskimo Joe]

^look at the western Canadian ridge. Nice.

[stormy]

The big news with the 12z runs is that the Euro is caving to the GFS by making Mondays system an inland runner.

The 00z gave Augusta County .25" of rain. The 12z gives us 3.19"!!!  For D.C., 00z gave 1.18, 12z gives 2.37".

Also more snow back in the western mts.

[psuhoffman]

Just now, stormy said:

The big news is more snow.

I choose to read it this way 

[jayyy]

Going to reiterate my statement from roughly 2 days ago. There is zero use in debbing over a few days of meh model runs 300+ hours out. Models are 1000% going to flip flop a bunch given how many moving pieces there are. The pacific, NA, NAO domain, etc, are all going to be changing around over the coming 2+ weeks. There is zero shot models have everything nailed down at this range. The only thing we DO know is that models will continue to flip flop around until we get closer. Today’s model runs look a lot more workable than they did a few days ago. Could very well look like shit again tomorrow and then trend back in our direction next week. The key is to zoom out, look at the big picture, and hone in the most important players on the field. The rest will fall into place in due time.

Will it be relatively warm the next 2ish weeks? Yes. Will it be a 2015 December torch? No. Will we have some chances at snow before Christmas? Probably not, but not 0% either.

Thank you to all who analyze LR models so in depth each day and for passing on the wealth of knowledge you have. A colder version of 2015-2016 certainly wouldn’t be the end of the world. If we had hit on those 2-3 cold rain storms we saw, we would have had an epic winter. I’d take that in a heartbeat after the last 7 years.

[stormy]

32 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I choose to read it this way 

Congratulations!!   You're exactly right!  Snowshoe goes from 1 inch to 6 inches.  Red Oak Knob in Highland goes from .5 inch to 3 inches.  It might be headed your way......

[WxUSAF]

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

A trillion times is probably a few hundred billion too many, but GFS and GGEM both show wavebreaking on the Atlantic side that improves the NAO domain and brings some man highs toward us Xmas weekend. With the active storm track, there’s at least some intrigue if timing works out. So yeah, could be worse. Temps still don’t look like a blowtorch for our little corner of the world. Is the whole CONUS well AN? Totally. Will we have a AN December? Very likely, but still nowhere near 2015 for us.

12z euro similar with Atlantic side wave breaking and a big high nosing in Xmas weekend. Guess we’ll see if all this can last even 6-12 hours, but I guess it’s something. Could at least prevent shorts for Santa??

[Ji]

12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

12z euro similar with Atlantic side wave breaking and a big high nosing in Xmas weekend. Guess we’ll see if all this can last even 6-12 hours, but I guess it’s something. Could at least prevent shorts for Santa??

crushing blow for webber

[TSSN+]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

crushing blow for webber

Some cold webbed feet. 

[Ji]

3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Some cold webbed feet. 

merry christmas eve eve. Ensembles agree

 

[WesternFringe]

12 minutes ago, Ji said:

merry christmas eve eve. Ensembles agree

 

Wait, I thought December was already declared a torch and a sea of warm based off of the weeklies a couple weeks ago!?!
 

In reality, so far December has produced snow for many in the sub-forum and it feels pretty cold with lows in the low 20s and highs in the 40s here this week with more of the same on the way over the next week plus.

[Ji]

8 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

Wait, I thought December was already declared a torch and a sea of warm based off of the weeklies a couple weeks ago!?!
 

In reality, so far December has produced snow for many in the sub-forum and it feels pretty cold with lows in the low 20s and highs in the 40s here this week with more of the same on the way over the next week plus.

no bro--its a carbon copy of Dec 2015 according to Twitter. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

So we just needed PSU to come in and voice a plethora of 'concerns' he is seeing in the Long Range in order to get the LR to cooperate in our favor? Noted.

[WinterFire]

13 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

Wait, I thought December was already declared a torch and a sea of warm based off of the weeklies a couple weeks ago!?!
 

In reality, so far December has produced snow for many in the sub-forum and it feels pretty cold with lows in the low 20s and highs in the 40s here this week with more of the same on the way over the next week plus.

Fwiw, DCA is running 1.8 degrees above normal and IAD is running 3.9 degrees above normal. So while it’s been cooler than previous torch Decembers, it’s been solidly AN despite what it may seem like. 

[Ji]

14 minutes ago, WinterFire said:

Fwiw, DCA is running 1.8 degrees above normal and IAD is running 3.9 degrees above normal. So while it’s been cooler than previous torch Decembers, it’s been solidly AN despite what it may seem like. 

the euro seasonal forecast was +2 for Dec at IAD so it seems like its on track

[psuhoffman]

30 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

Wait, I thought December was already declared a torch and a sea of warm based off of the weeklies a couple weeks ago!?!
 

In reality, so far December has produced snow for many in the sub-forum and it feels pretty cold with lows in the low 20s and highs in the 40s here this week with more of the same on the way over the next week plus.

 

21 minutes ago, Ji said:

no bro--its a carbon copy of Dec 2015 according to Twitter. 

 It as warm as 2015 is a pretty low bar.  Don’t be fooled by the fact we got incredibly lucky with a secondary development along a frontal passage…if the predominant December pattern were to continue all winter we aren’t sniffing some of the ambitious (including my own) snowfall predictions. Maybe it wouldn’t be as bad as some recent total duds but again that’s a low bar. While it may not be the super torch some trolls hyped it’s not what we need for a snowy winter.  Yea there has been some improvement and positive signs today but let’s not pretend we’re in some good pattern now. 

[WesternFringe]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

 It as warm as 2015 is a pretty low bar.  Don’t be fooled by the fact we got incredibly lucky with a secondary development along a frontal passage…if the predominant December pattern were to continue all winter we aren’t sniffing some of the ambitious (including my own) snowfall predictions. Maybe it wouldn’t be as bad as some recent total duds but again that’s a low bar. While it may not be the super torch some trolls hyped it’s not what we need for a snowy winter.  Yea there has been some improvement and positive signs today but let’s not pretend we’re in some good pattern now. 

26 minutes ago, WinterFire said:

Fwiw, DCA is running 1.8 degrees above normal and IAD is running 3.9 degrees above normal. So while it’s been cooler than previous torch Decembers, it’s been solidly AN despite what it may seem like. 

Just to clarify, I wasn’t trying to say we are in an arctic blast good winter weather pattern, but rather that all the doom and gloom torch comments based on weeklies hasn’t panned out here at least.  My area is only about 2 degrees higher than the December average and we haven’t made it yet to the second half of the month which tends to be colder than the first half obviously.  
 

In the end, I think there is a decent to good chance that December ends up being very very similar to previous Decembers wrt average temps here in Augusta County.  Admittedly, I don’t follow metro temps closely, but given the latest guidance from the ops I would not be surprised to see DCA within a degree of normal when averaged at the end of the month.  Time will tell.

 

[psuhoffman]

10 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

Just to clarify, I wasn’t trying to say we are in an arctic blast good winter weather pattern, but rather that all the doom and gloom torch comments based on weeklies hasn’t panned out here at least.  My area is only about 2 degrees higher than the December average and we haven’t made it yet to the second half of the month which tends to be colder than the first half obviously.  
 

In the end, I think there is a decent to good chance that December ends up being very very similar to previous Decembers wrt average temps here in Augusta County.  Admittedly, I don’t follow metro temps closely, but given the latest guidance from the ops I would not be surprised to see DCA within a degree of normal when averaged at the end of the month.  Time will tell.

 

I’ll admit I judge a pattern purely by how likely I think it is to produce a snowstorm. I could care less if it’s +3 or +20 or even -5 for that matter, if the long wave configuration is unlikely to produce snow it’s all the same to me. 

[wxdude64]

14 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

Just to clarify, I wasn’t trying to say we are in an arctic blast good winter weather pattern, but rather that all the doom and gloom torch comments based on weeklies hasn’t panned out here at least.  My area is only about 2 degrees higher than the December average and we haven’t made it yet to the second half of the month which tends to be colder than the first half obviously.  
 

In the end, I think there is a decent to good chance that December ends up being very very similar to previous Decembers wrt average temps here in Augusta County.  Admittedly, I don’t follow metro temps closely, but given the latest guidance from the ops I would not be surprised to see DCA within a degree of normal when averaged at the end of the month.  Time will tell.

 

Agree. Running a +2.6 for the month here so far. Blazing? No. Will it stay above normal by the end of the month? Maybe. Is it better than the record breaking +10.3 from Dec 2015, absolutely. 

[WesternFringe]

16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’ll admit I judge a pattern purely by how likely I think it is to produce a snowstorm. I could care less if it’s +3 or +20 or even -5 for that matter, if the long wave configuration is unlikely to produce snow it’s all the same to me. 

Even though I am the one that posted about temps, I fully agree with you.  
 

It is nonsense all the talk about snow chances being doomed because it is warm 5 days before an event or that weeklies showing 1-2 degree AN mean no snow chances for that entire week. 

[stormy]

8 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

Even though I am the one that posted about temps, I fully agree with you.  
 

It is nonsense all the talk about snow chances being doomed because it is warm 5 days before an event or that weeklies showing 1-2 degree AN mean no snow chances for that entire week. 

KUDO's

[psuhoffman]

Euro weeklies bounced back in a big way today. 

[stormy]

The 18z GFS increased my qp from 1.60 to 2.09".  I don't agree with the Helter Skelter precip. footprint.  CRAZY!!!!!!

[psuhoffman]

12 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

Even though I am the one that posted about temps, I fully agree with you.  
 

It is nonsense all the talk about snow chances being doomed because it is warm 5 days before an event or that weeklies showing 1-2 degree AN mean no snow chances for that entire week. 

Frankly some of our snowy Nino periods were even warmer than people realize because snow cover severely depresses temps. 

[clskinsfan]

First chance I have had to look at guidance today. The 12Z GFS was lining us up for a pummelling at the end of the run. The one take away for me is the train of storms stretching all the way across the Pacific. We are heading for a very stormy period. One of them has to score.