December Mid/Long Range Discussion

[brooklynwx99]

  On 12/13/2023 at 1:09 AM, Ralph Wiggum said:

Absolutely uncanny resemblance to that jan-feb 1973 climo chart posted a couple hours ago in this thread. 

Expand  

if the Arctic is that unfavorable for the entire back half of winter, i will be absolutely shocked

[brooklynwx99]

you’re getting towards something better at the end of the 18z GEFS. got a trough undercutting N Canada ridging… you can get a wave break in the ATL and send that ridging towards Greenland. that’s what happens on the OP

[Ji]

  On 12/13/2023 at 1:09 AM, Ralph Wiggum said:

Absolutely uncanny resemblance to that jan-feb 1973 climo chart posted a couple hours ago in this thread. 

No other Nino had that look?

[brooklynwx99]

blocking is pretty essential in Ninos and the models usually miss it at range unless it’s a classic pig retrograding Scandi ridge. the STJ undercutting Canadian blocking/ridging is usually how you score. they aren’t Arctic cold patterns, but they work

[Ji]

  On 12/13/2023 at 12:28 AM, psuhoffman said:

We have to get the nao negative or that ridge in Canada centered into western Canada. Until one of those two things (preferable both) happen we will struggle. 

This dosent looks as extreme in the high latitudes as that 72-73 image

[ravensrule]

  On 12/12/2023 at 11:07 PM, Always in Zugzwang said:

But wetness in the form of ice crystals is a lot more fun!!!  (Oh, dear, did I just send up the bat signal to RR with that wording???)

Expand  

Who doesn’t like voluptuous ice cubes. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Man those Euro weeklies/EPS are bad. 

[psuhoffman]

  On 12/13/2023 at 12:45 AM, Ji said:

lol it’s the first day of the pattern change. Jb is convinced that positive anomaly is moving west

Expand  

So am I but unlike JB I don’t just assume I have to be right. I’ve been humbled by Mother Nature enough go know not to celebrate until it’s actually happening. We’ve seen step one sneak into day 15 a few times. I feel better when we actually see step 2-3 start progressing into range. 

[psuhoffman]

  On 12/13/2023 at 1:20 AM, Ji said:

No other Nino had that look?

Expand  

1992

[Daniel Boone]

  On 12/13/2023 at 12:28 AM, psuhoffman said:

We have to get the nao negative or that ridge in Canada centered into western Canada. Until one of those two things (preferable both) happen we will struggle. 

Expand  

Yeah, exactly. 

[psuhoffman]

  On 12/13/2023 at 1:21 AM, brooklynwx99 said:

blocking is pretty essential in Ninos and the models usually miss it at range unless it’s a classic pig retrograding Scandi ridge. the STJ undercutting Canadian blocking/ridging is usually how you score. they aren’t Arctic cold patterns, but they work

Expand  

Ya and I’m optimistic but some are downplaying the degradation of the nao look on guidance. That’s the key though imo. The equation we need doesn’t work without blocking.  Positive nao ninos are mostly awful. Luckily they are also fairly rare. 

[Daniel Boone]

  On 12/13/2023 at 1:44 AM, psuhoffman said:

So am I but unlike JB I don’t just assume I have to be right. I’ve been humbled by Mother Nature enough go know not to celebrate until it’s actually happening. We’ve seen step one sneak into day 15 a few times. I feel better when we actually see step 2-3 start progressing into range. 

Expand  

Not a pessimist nor optimist but, a realist 

[psuhoffman]

  On 12/13/2023 at 1:41 AM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Man those Euro weeklies/EPS are bad. 

Expand  

Welcome to 3 pages ago. Let me know when you hear about Elvis. 

[BristowWx]

  On 12/13/2023 at 1:41 AM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Man those Euro weeklies/EPS are bad. 

Expand  

Thank you Art…I know the little lights aren’t twinkling 

[Ji]

  On 12/13/2023 at 1:49 AM, psuhoffman said:

1992

[cbmclean]

  On 12/13/2023 at 1:54 AM, psuhoffman said:

Welcome to 3 pages ago. Let me know when you hear about Elvis. 

Expand  

He still lives and no one can tell me any different!!

In other news, a link for the curious to the CPS MJO weekly write-up

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf

Summary: there is a disagreement between the dynamical models which predict the wave dies (potentially due to destructive interference from a CCKW in the Indian Ocean), and the "RMM forecast" which favor continuation of the wave into 7 and beyond.  

Not sure what entity/model is the "RMM forecast" other than the models, but I sure hope they are right.  I've heard many people that the models tend to kill waves too quickly so maybe...

[cbmclean]

  On 12/13/2023 at 12:26 AM, Weather Will said:

I have had a horrible month at work so a Christmas miracle would be great

Expand  

Tell your boss that the NAO has degraded on the long range guidance and as a result you need to take a few extra weeks off to watch the models.

[Ji]

I’m desperate for anyone but jb telling me good news. Found this on Twitter

[NorthArlington101]

  On 12/13/2023 at 2:11 AM, Ji said:

I’m desperate for anyone but jb telling me good news. Found this on Twitter

Getting weather updates on LinkedIn is pretty sick

[raindancewx]

1973 with a warmer Atlantic would probably be a 2-3 month window of very powerful, wet storms, with marginal cold for a lot of the Eastern US.  You'd force a lot of the fluke super cold/strong storms to the north with southern heat already building up from the south. Atlantic was frigid in the early 1970s. 

1972-73 is the snowiest winter/cold season on record in a lot of interior West. I don't expect that this year, but it's a pretty special winter for a lot of the country, including the southern US.

 

[Yeoman]

  On 12/13/2023 at 1:54 AM, psuhoffman said:

Welcome to 3 pages ago. Let me know when you hear about Elvis. 

Expand  

Give him a break.. not everyone can spend 23 hours a day around here chasing unicorns

[WesternFringe]

  On 12/13/2023 at 12:02 AM, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GEFS, looking for a chilly Christmas?  South Florida, Cuba and the Yucatán!

Expand  

Again, 2-3 degrees warmer than average isn’t warm in late December.  And what does the 2 degree departure from average over an entire week have to do with discrete snow chances?  What were the average temp anomalies for the week where I just got 2.7” and much of this board got 1-4”?

[psuhoffman]

  On 12/13/2023 at 2:02 AM, Ji said:

Expand  

Keep in mind I can find a one week snapshot in some good nino years that look somewhat like that. 
Dec 1957

Dec 1965

Dec 1986

It’s not the end of the world if a week in December looks like crap and resembles 1973/1992. The problem with those years was the whole winter was like that!  As I said before some good ninos had a stretch like this in Dec. The good/bad years diverged around new years. We will know soon how this is heading!  

[Daniel Boone]

  On 12/13/2023 at 2:19 AM, raindancewx said:

1973 with a warmer Atlantic would probably be a 2-3 month window of very powerful, wet storms, with marginal cold for a lot of the Eastern US.  You'd force a lot of the fluke super cold/strong storms to the north with southern heat already building up from the south. Atlantic was frigid in the early 1970s. 

1972-73 is the snowiest winter/cold season on record in a lot of interior West. I don't expect that this year, but it's a pretty special winter for a lot of the country, including the southern US.

 

Expand  

Yeah, was thinking similarly. Would possibly allow systems that tracked across the deep South then to travel further North. 

[psuhoffman]

  On 12/13/2023 at 2:19 AM, raindancewx said:

1973 with a warmer Atlantic would probably be a 2-3 month window of very powerful, wet storms, with marginal cold for a lot of the Eastern US.  You'd force a lot of the fluke super cold/strong storms to the north with southern heat already building up from the south. Atlantic was frigid in the early 1970s. 

1972-73 is the snowiest winter/cold season on record in a lot of interior West. I don't expect that this year, but it's a pretty special winter for a lot of the country, including the southern US.

 

Expand  

 

  On 12/13/2023 at 2:47 AM, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah, was thinking similarly. Would possibly allow systems that tracked across the deep South then to travel further North. 

Expand  

Today’s raging pacific with that incredibly +AO is likely a disaster.  Next week on guidance doesn’t exactly look promising for snow.  Let’s just hope we don’t have to test that theory. 
 

1973, 1992 and 1995 failed primarily because the NAO/AO were positive. 1998 the AO/NAO flipped negative but the North Pac vortex was just out of control and flooded pac puke all winter regardless of the nao. 1998 was extremely east based though and combined with a colder pac profile around ENSO created maybe the greatest contrast which likely lead to the strength and displacement east of the pacific nino long wave pattern.  Other than 1998 which was an anomaly, the other analogs all fell in line snowy or not based on the NAO. 
 

1958, 1966, 1987, 2010 the NAO was negative. 
1973, 1992, 1995 the NAO was positive. 

[Ji]

  On 12/13/2023 at 3:03 AM, psuhoffman said:

 

Today’s raging pacific with that incredibly +AO is likely a disaster.  Next week on guidance doesn’t exactly look promising for snow.  Let’s just hope we don’t have to test that theory. 
 

1973, 1992 and 1995 failed primarily because the NAO/AO were positive. 1998 the AO/NAO flipped negative but the North Pac vortex was just out of control and flooded pac puke all winter regardless of the nao. 1998 was extremely east based though and combined with a colder pac profile around ENSO created maybe the greatest contrast which likely lead to the strength and displacement east of the pacific nino long wave pattern.  Other than 1998 which was an anomaly, the other analogs all fell in line snowy or not based on the NAO. 
 

1958, 1966, 1987, 2010 the NAO was negative. 
1973, 1992, 1995 the NAO was positive. 

Expand  

Don Sutherland had some research on -NAO in November correlating to -NAO winters so.....i think we just need to fast forward 2 weeks so we can stop guessing lol

[Maestrobjwa]

  On 12/13/2023 at 3:06 AM, Ji said:

Don Sutherland had some research on -NAO in November correlating to -NAO winters so.....i think we just need to fast forward 2 weeks so we can stop guessing lol

Expand  

Yeah man this is like watching a high stakes game where you are hiding your face because ya can't watch, yet keep looking with one eye, hoping for the best yet having the worst keep flashing before you too, lol The suspense is magnified given our recent stretch (if we'd done better the last 7 years it wouldn't feel as tense!)

[Ji]

  On 12/13/2023 at 3:09 AM, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah man this is like watching a high stakes game where you are hiding your face because ya can't watch, yet keep looking with one eye, hoping for the best yet having the worst keep flashing before you too, lol The suspense is magnified given our recent stretch (if we'd done better the last 7 years it wouldn't feel as tense!)

Psu is in mid-season form and it's terrifying. It's like falling off the titanic and someone hands you a napkin instead of life raft

Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk

[brooklynwx99]

  On 12/13/2023 at 3:09 AM, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah man this is like watching a high stakes game where you are hiding your face because ya can't watch, yet keep looking with one eye, hoping for the best yet having the worst keep flashing before you too, lol The suspense is magnified given our recent stretch (if we'd done better the last 7 years it wouldn't feel as tense!)

Expand  

i wouldn’t worry. i haven’t seen any reason why this year won’t deliver. if we’re in the same spot in a month with crap on the horizon for 10 days, then it’s time to worry

[raindancewx]

The special characteristic of 1973 from my research is the recurring volatility of two long lived patterns during short periods. I'm just saying...you'd have more chances than you think. The variation is so fast and dynamic the monthly indexes are almost irrelevant by month.

You can see a pretty clear 45 day-cycle of cold reaching the east in that pattern. Early January, late February, early April. You can also see a 45-day tendency for super heat in the East as well- late January, early March, late April. AO was overall positive in Jan-Mar 1973...but you know...still pretty damn cold at times.

Apr 16-30 was also very warm in the East, per the pattern.