December Mid/Long Range Discussion

[Ji]

[Ji]

Just now, Ji said:

i found this on twitter. Anyone know where an updated chart is of this?

[psuhoffman]

Euro weeklies continue to degrade. Now lost the -nao through the entire run like the gefs extended. January doesn’t look awful but it now looks mediocre at best compared to all those epic looks just a few days ago. 
 

again just keeping score 

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Euro weeklies continue to degrade. Now lost the -nao through the entire run like the gefs extended. January doesn’t look awful but it now looks mediocre at best compared to all those epic looks just a few days ago. 
 

again just keeping score 

maybe we are going to have that moderate nino that dosent work...94/95, 72-73. on par for the luck we have had lately. On the other hand...the weeklies havent been reliable--or we would be having a snowy and cold Holiday period

[brooklynwx99]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Euro weeklies continue to degrade. Now lost the -nao through the entire run like the gefs extended. January doesn’t look awful but it now looks mediocre at best compared to all those epic looks just a few days ago. 
 

again just keeping score 

i don’t know why they decided to run those every day. they’re just going to drive people nuts considering they’ll waffle around

[Deck Pic]

8 minutes ago, Ji said:

maybe we are going to have that moderate nino that dosent work...94/95, 72-73. on par for the luck we have had lately. On the other hand...the weeklies havent been reliable--or we would be having a snowy and cold Holiday period

How is your subscription site going?  do you run the euro?

[psuhoffman]

23 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i don’t know why they decided to run those every day. they’re just going to drive people nuts considering they’ll waffle around

They aren’t waffling they’ve been slowly consistently degrading over the last 5 days. 

[psuhoffman]

30 minutes ago, Ji said:

maybe we are going to have that moderate nino that dosent work...94/95, 72-73. on par for the luck we have had lately. On the other hand...the weeklies havent been reliable--or we would be having a snowy and cold Holiday period

Unfortunately the best pattern match right now is Dec 1994 and it’s kinda scary how closely they match at h5!  I’m not gonna lie it bothers me a little. 

[CAPE]

40 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Euro weeklies continue to degrade. Now lost the -nao through the entire run like the gefs extended. January doesn’t look awful but it now looks mediocre at best compared to all those epic looks just a few days ago. 
 

again just keeping score 

The extended products are somewhat useful for a week or so beyond the end of the ens runs imo. I don't hate this look at all for the first week of Jan. There is a mechanism to deliver some cold air with a more favorable Aleutian low position/-EPO. Now is it real? Who knows.

[Heisy]

Unfortunately the best pattern match right now is Dec 1994 and it’s kinda scary how closely they match at h5!  I’m not gonna lie it bothers me a little. 

HM Posted this the other day on our forum. 94 vs current model run. 94 was showing up on top analog lists when it was posted, not sure about now. I’m 37, that winter sucked, but I have a memory of the one big event we had just outside Philly. I woke up to thunder snow.





.

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The extended products are somewhat useful for a week or so beyond the end of the ens runs imo. I don't hate this look at all for the first week of Jan. There is a mechanism to deliver some cold air with a favorable Aleutian ridge position/-EPO. Now is it real? Who knows.

Yes it’s “ok” not awful. But this was the same week just 5 days ago…it’s the trend more than the raw output that’s troubling.  

lastly an “ok” pattern isn’t gonna verify my 30-40” snowfall prediction!  I’m not looking for this year to be “ok”. We’re coming off our worst 7 year stretch EVER finally in a Nino with a -QBO and ascending solar staring down another Nina next year.  This year has to be graded on a curve. This has to be our epic once a decade save our snow weenie souls winter.  This winter is a hall of fame shooting guard going up against a top team. Dropping 20 won’t cut it we’re gonna need a 30 point night minimum!  
 

My point is my expectations are high. I expect this winter to be GOOD not just another continuation of the same crap we’ve been in recently. Some decent flawed pattern where we might fight our way close to climo with luck (like 2019) is a fail imo. BTW Baltimore needs like 30” this winter for it not to be the least snowy 8 years on record!  That’s how low we’ve sunk!  So I’m judging this winter on that criteria. It has to be the year that breaks us out of this “least snowy X years” funk and its been so bad that doesn’t just mean some 15-25” season. We need EPIC. 
 

So no that look isn’t awful. I could even see how we might get lucky if a lot goes right. But it’s not close to what I’m looking for?  End of rant. lol. 

[psuhoffman]

13 minutes ago, Heisy said:

HM Posted this the other day on our forum. 94 vs current model run. 94 was showing up on top analog lists when it was posted, not sure about now. I’m 37, that winter sucked, but I have a memory of the one big event we had just outside Philly. I woke up to thunder snow.





.

It’s worse than a one day snapshot. It a match overall to an uncanny degree over weeks. 
 

That storm was ok. I had thunder too. But one 4-8” snow all freaking season in a -QBO Nino would be a total unmitigated disaster. Let’s not sugar coat they. 

[Benjamn3]

I have a feeling things will improve before Christmas. Nothing wild like vodka cold and snow. However I feel like the models will start to improve in the coming days. 

[Deck Pic]

11 minutes ago, Heisy said:

HM Posted this the other day on our forum. 94 vs current model run. 94 was showing up on top analog lists when it was posted, not sure about now. I’m 37, that winter sucked, but I have a memory of the one big event we had just outside Philly. I woke up to thunder snow.





.

The 2/4/95 event was a pretty nice one for I-95.  K/U event.  I think the pattern was garbage and we thread the needle.  But yeah, at least around here the winter mostly sucked outside of that.  I think 72-73 is a better overall analog than 94-95 in terms of bad winters.. of course that winter was a total debacle.  I'm not concerned yet.  December isnt a winter month.

[CAPE]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yes it’s “ok” not awful. But this was the same week just 5 days ago…it’s the trend more than the raw output that’s troubling.  

lastly an “ok” pattern isn’t gonna verify my 30-40” snowfall prediction!  I’m not looking for this year to be “ok”. We’re coming off our worst 7 year stretch EVER finally in a Nino with a -QBO and ascending solar staring down another Nina next year.  This year has to be graded on a curve. This has to be our epic once a decade save our snow weenie souls winter.  This winter is a hall of fame shooting guard going up against a top team. Dropping 20 won’t cut it we’re gonna need a 30 point night minimum!  
 

My point is my expectations are high. I expect this winter to be GOOD not just another continuation of the same crap we’ve been in recently. Some decent flawed pattern where we might fight our way close to climo with luck (like 2019) is a fail imo. BTW Baltimore needs like 30” this winter for it not to be the least snowy 8 years on record!  That’s how low we’ve sunk!  So I’m judging this winter on that criteria. It has to be the year that breaks us out of this “least snowy X years” funk and its been so bad that doesn’t just mean some 15-25” season. We need EPIC. 
 

So no that look isn’t awful. I could even see how we might get lucky if a lot goes right. But it’s not close to what I’m looking for?  End of rant. lol. 

Better Pac look, not as good in the NA on the latest run. On a super LR smoothed mean where we can only glean the general idea, a wash.

[Deck Pic]

53 minutes ago, Ji said:

maybe we are going to have that moderate nino that dosent work...94/95, 72-73. on par for the luck we have had lately. On the other hand...the weeklies havent been reliable--or we would be having a snowy and cold Holiday period

IAD got 14" in 94-95 (there was a decent event in January as well) and 2.2" in 72-73.  Neither winter would meet our expectations, but there is still a difference between sucky and catastrophic failure

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Better Pac look, not as good in the NA. On a super LR smoothed mean where we can only glean the general idea, a wash.

Not sure how that Pna = better pac. The epo ia better the pna is worse.  But the atl being worse is a bigger problem that many seem to think. We don’t do well in a Nino with a +NAO usually.  

[Ji]

IAD got 14" in 94-95 (there was a decent event in January as well) and 2.2" in 72-73.  Neither winter would meet our expectations, but there is still a difference between sucky and catastrophic failure

72-73 had a southern hecs so it must of had something right

[psuhoffman]

14 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

IAD got 14" in 94-95 (there was a decent event in January as well) and 2.2" in 72-73.  Neither winter would meet our expectations, but there is still a difference between sucky and catastrophic failure

I’m grading this year within the larger context. If we get a year like that in a -QBO ascending solar when are we breaking out of this funk given we’re likely heading towards a Nina and soon to be descending solar. This is out shot. Maybe the last one for a big season in a while. 
 

I know anything can happen. Maybe we luck into a 1996 Nina next year. I wouldn’t hold my breath given the pacific base state.  But for years as we’ve suffered through the worst stretch in history I’ve heard “wait for a Nino”  Now we have a Nino and so I’m not in the mood for “well maybe it won’t be good but that’s ok”. My bar is way higher. 

[Terpeast]

Just checked long range CFS, and it looks like we go right back into a nina with more of the same. And solar will descend, meaning more +NAO.

This year is THE shot we have towards a good-to-great winter. 

Of course it’ll snow in other winters like Jan 2022, but this year is our shot at a blockbuster. We won’t get another shot at this for a while. 

[psuhoffman]

14 minutes ago, Ji said:

72-73 had a southern hecs so it must of had something right

It was an awful pattern. They just got lucky once, and VERY lucky. 

You at least always have the chance of a lucky huge fluke in the Mid ATL and SE in a bad Nino because of the STJ.  But a Nino should be graded in a curve. It’s not some +QBO west based Nina where getting 10-15” might be considered a win!  A -QBO ascending solar non east based super Nino is our superstar player. We have to hold them to a much higher standard. Getting a dud from one is way worse than a dud in any other scenario. And what’s crazy is what I’m saying I heard many others saying the same basically…all this “wait for a Nino and it will be  ok” talk but now it’s here so I don’t want any excuses. Just keeping it real. 

[stormy]

4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Just checked long range CFS, and it looks like we go right back into a nina with more of the same. And solar will descend, meaning more +NAO.

This year is THE shot we have towards a good-to-great winter. 

Of course it’ll snow in other winters like Jan 2022, but this year is our shot at a blockbuster. We won’t get another shot at this for a while. 

Don't shed tears, the CFS is "Crap For Sure", unless it hiccups........ We will be fine...

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Serious (mostly) question here, since I don't look at the Euro weeklies really at all other than what I read in here.  How accurate or useful are they?  I'm not trying to be a homer here by suggesting "they look bad so they must not be accurate!"  I'm being honest in what I ask.  In the past, how many times have the weeklies shown drool-worthy patterns for several weeks, and it ends up crap anyhow as we got close in to that time?  I know this has happened in previous years (maybe even last year at one point?).  Of course the flip-side is assuming that they're spot on when they indicate a lousy pattern but dubious if they look good...but that's just me being cynical.  In fact, I've noticed this for much of the sort of ultra-long-range models, how many times has it indicated a good trend that just doesn't happen?  Is there something that isn't being picked up on in recent years?  Again, maybe this is being biased on my part because of course we tend to better remember the times the forecast good patterns don't pan out.

[SnowenOutThere]

Really is a shame, it evens stalls out off the Delaware coast! At least STJ won't be the leading cause of failure. 

[anotherman]

Well, shit. We’ve gone from “everything is fine“ to looking at forecasts for future winters, and saying that this is our only shot ever at a good winter.

[psuhoffman]

17 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Just checked long range CFS, and it looks like we go right back into a nina with more of the same. And solar will descend, meaning more +NAO.

This year is THE shot we have towards a good-to-great winter. 

Of course it’ll snow in other winters like Jan 2022, but this year is our shot at a blockbuster. We won’t get another shot at this for a while. 

Thanks…I get the impression some think I’m being hot take ish or edgy with this. Frankly I kinda factored this into my seasonal forecast some.  I didn’t even want to imagine how ugly it might get if we failed this year given the pacific cycle we’re in and what’s likely coming given where we’re heading wrt QBO/Solar/enso. I thought “it can’t really be headed toward 8,9,10 years of this dreg can it?”  But that’s what we’re facing if we don’t score big this year.  

Whats odd because for years when we suffered during less ideal enso I heard a lot of what I’m saying now…it’s ok eventually we will get a Nino and then we will score. So I know people agree with this. But now that the moment of truth is here and we have a Nino I’m starting to see some “well maybe it won’t be that good but there ok” posts. lol. 

[Deck Pic]

30 minutes ago, Ji said:

72-73 had a southern hecs so it must of had something right

Every bad winter for us has 100 year events in Myrtle Beach, Houston, Austin and Madrid

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Just now, Deck Pic said:

Every bad winter for us has 100 year events in Myrtle Beach, Houston, Austin and Madrid

Road trip to Spain, anyone???? 

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Thanks…I get the impression some think I’m being hit take ish or edgy with this. Frankly I kinda factored this into my seasonal forecast some.  I didn’t even want to imagine how ugly it might get if we failed this year given the pacific cycle we’re in and what’s likely coming given where we’re heading wrt QBO/Solar/enso. I thought “it can’t really be headed toward 8,9,10 years of this dreg can it?”  But that’s what we’re facing if we don’t score big this year.  

Whats odd because for years when we suffered during less ideal enso I heard a lot of what I’m saying now…it’s ok eventually we will get a Nino and then we will score. So I know people agree with this. But now that the moment of truth is here and we have a Nino I’m starting to see some “well maybe it won’t be that good but there ok” posts. lol. 

Yeah, this year will be a good test case. Agree about grading ninos on a curve, but we will see how much CC shifts the entire curve. Sorry had to mention it.

But I’m not giving up on this winter. Far from it. 

[Deck Pic]

32 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m grading this year within the larger context. If we get a year like that in a -QBO ascending solar when are we breaking out of this funk given we’re likely heading towards a Nina and soon to be descending solar. This is out shot. Maybe the last one for a big season in a while. 
 

I know anything can happen. Maybe we luck into a 1996 Nina next year. I wouldn’t hold my breath given the pacific base state.  But for years as we’ve suffered through the worst stretch in history I’ve heard “wait for a Nino”  Now we have a Nino and so I’m not in the mood for “well maybe it won’t be good but that’s ok”. My bar is way higher. 

didnt you get like 3-4" literally yesterday?