December Mid/Long Range Discussion

[brooklynwx99]

35 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

I'm just hoping the can kicking stops.

I think we get into a good pattern in January but it is getting can kicked a bit. 

A week ago we were looking at the week Betwen Christmas and New Years. Now it's spilling into the first of the year 

And it will take a week or 2 to get temps right once we get a better pattern.

We can certainly luck into something but it makes it tougher .

 

it isn't getting kicked for some nebulous reason like it does for the truly shitty winters. there was a jet extension modeled that usually promotes a +PNA and sometimes a -EPO, but there was extratropical forcing that led to the jet becoming way too strong. luckily, that is a temporary factor, and the pattern likely becomes more favorable into early Jan as the jet inevitably retracts somewhat. it's like a delay of a week or so, most likely, and it's for a well defined reason

[DarkSharkWX]

speaking of, the weak SPV will help with overextension concerns and should bully the jet to retract back eventually, but i would be skeptical of pattern changes too quickly as models may be running through them too quickly

w that being said, we will def progress eventually, my bet is early-mid jan; remember nino winters really start in the EC after MLK day

[psuhoffman]

I don’t think the end of the EPS was that bad. I thought it took a step finally. I’ll be interested in what the weeklies show as its extension today, just for fun lol. 

ideally we want a -nao and to get that pac trough to retro a bit to get that ridge (x) back closer to an axis along Idaho. But this is closer. The highest heights are no longer right on top of us. Yea there is no arctic air but that’s par for a Nino. Look at the flow. The Canada ridge is pulling back enough to get a flow we can work with. I could see something working within that framework. It’s not as bad as the last few runs imo. 

[midatlanticweather]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I don’t think the end of the EPS was that bad. I thought it took a step finally. I’ll be interested in what the weeklies show as its extension today, just for fun lol. 

ideally we want a -nao and to get that pac trough to retro a bit to get that ridge (x) back closer to an axis along Idaho. But this is closer. The highest heights are no longer right on top of us. Yea there is no arctic air but that’s par for a Nino. Look at the flow. The Canada ridge is pulling back enough to get a flow we can work with. I could see something working within that framework. It’s not as bad as the last few runs imo. 

[WxUSAF]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I don’t think the end of the EPS was that bad. I thought it took a step finally. I’ll be interested in what the weeklies show as its extension today, just for fun lol. 

ideally we want a -nao and to get that pac trough to retro a bit to get that ridge (x) back closer to an axis along Idaho. But this is closer. The highest heights are no longer right on top of us. Yea there is no arctic air but that’s par for a Nino. Look at the flow. The Canada ridge is pulling back enough to get a flow we can work with. I could see something working within that framework. It’s not as bad as the last few runs imo. 

Compare the similar time on the last 4 GEFS runs. All the major features are the same, but subtle placement differences can vary my impression of it from: blech to pretty good. 

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Compare the similar time on the last 4 GEFS runs. All the major features are the same, but subtle placement differences can vary my impression of it from: blech to pretty good. 

If the pac jet relaxes just a bit it would solve pretty much all the problems.  Those other imperfections wouldn’t matter much if you retrograde everything out west 5-10 degrees. 

[psuhoffman]

If you loop the last 48 hours on the gefs and geps you can see positive progress happening. 

[Ji]

Euro is interesting...it delays the big gulf storm and allows some fresh cold air to get into the our area.

 

the gulf storm eventually goes to sea

 

 

[brooklynwx99]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If you loop the last 48 hours on the gefs and geps you can see positive progress happening. 

you can see the jet retraction happening here. good to see models showing this, as it would lead to more of a typical Aleutian LP rather than a rogue super GoA low

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

you can see the jet retraction happening here. good to see models showing this, as it would lead to more of a typical Aleutian LP rather than a rogue super GoA low

The actual main vortex is placed fine, the problem is the pac jet on roids is blasting off pieces of it and crashing them into the pacific NW.  That’s different from more cutoff STJ systems coming into southern CA. Once (if) the pac jet relaxes just a wee bit (it’s a technical term) the whole pattern would fix itself relatively quick imo. It might take a week to get cold air (or colder I don’t expect arctic air) established. 

[Benjamn3]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If you loop the last 48 hours on the gefs and geps you can see positive progress happening. 

I noticed that as well when I was checking the 12z on lunch. The last three runs have dropped temps about 10 degrees in my neck of the woods. 

[Terpeast]

Update to my outlook (no change)

 

[aldie 22]

One thing this board has always been known for is that everyone has an abundance of patience. 

[Maestrobjwa]

34 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

One thing this board has always been known for is that everyone has an abundance of patience. 

Patience? Nah

Patients? Absolutely 

[TSSN+]

Are there any signals out there? 

[Ji]

37 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Are there any signals out there? 

yes we have a very strong signal for a non white Christmas

[Weather Will]

2 hours ago, Ji said:

Euro is interesting...it delays the big gulf storm and allows some fresh cold air to get into the our area.

 

the gulf storm eventually goes to sea

 

 

WB 12Z EPS....worth watching...

[vastateofmind]

2 hours ago, aldie 22 said:

One thing this board has always been known for is that everyone has an abundance of patience. 

An abundance of patience? Yeah, perhaps...especially after the past decade or so.

An abundance of (wide ranging, extremist) opinions? Absolutely.   

[Eskimo Joe]

52 minutes ago, Ji said:

yes we have a very strong signal for a non white Christmas

Evergreen post

[stormy]

18 z GFS caves to the ECM.    I begin to worry everytime this happens.

A wet winter is what we need. This is not a step in the right direction.

[CAPE]

Seems there are some misconceptions about the Pacific jet, extensions/retractions, ENSO... and what to 'root' for.

This might be a good read for some.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/what-we-talk-about-when-we-talk-about-jet-stream-and-el-nino

[aldie 22]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

yes we have a very strong signal for a non white Christmas

No political posts allowed on the weather side

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Seems there are some misconceptions about the Pacific jet, extensions/retractions, ENSO... and what to 'root' for.

This might be a good read for some.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/what-we-talk-about-when-we-talk-about-jet-stream-and-el-nino

Maybe this is just semantics. I dunno. A jet extension is fine. A record fast jet extension is too much of a good thing and shifts the whole pattern east which floods us with maritime pac air and doesn’t allow for a northerly flow until too far east to mix enough continental polar air into the equation.  
 

The issue is some (who might not really know the nuances of what they speak) are just saying “the jet extension” without the necessary context. 
 

What we want is the pac jet to chill just a bit. That’s all.  

[ldub23]

Late Dec and this  model is showing rain in North Dakota  to the  cold  NW side  of a  low. 1/3rd of winter  is gone  at this  point.

 

[Imgoinhungry]

Late Dec and this  model is showing rain in North Dakota  to the  cold  NW side  of a  low. 1/3rd of winter  is gone  at this  point.
 

Winter hasnt even started yet???


.

[Weather Will]

Latest from WB; JMA holds firm for east coast winter pattern Jan and Feb.  Its forecast for a warm Dec verified.  JB says transition by Dec. 30th.

[North Balti Zen]

Please join many of us in putting that poster (ldub ) on ignore. Will help your board experience .

[CAPE]

Not sure what 'chill' means. I would assume retracted.

This is extended-

This is retracted-

Ofc it's not this simple. The strength and position of the Aleutian low is influenced by other factors. There is a TPV lobe positioned such that it dumps energy into that vortex, generally keeping it deeper/further east than ideal for our purposes.

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Maybe this is just semantics. I dunno. A jet extension is fine. A record fast jet extension is too much of a good thing and shifts the whole pattern east which floods us with maritime pac air and doesn’t allow for a northerly flow until too far east to mix enough continental polar air into the equation.  
 

The issue is some (who might not really know the nuances of what they speak) are just saying “the jet extension” without the necessary context. 
 

What we want is the pac jet to chill just a bit. That’s all.  

It would be a good study to see how recent-year Nino jet extension tendencies compare to similar enso episodes from past climatology. Ie, are recent Ninos more persistent and stronger with the extension than the past? Are we seeing less of a likelihood to see pac jet retraction in a Nino due to certain climate conditions that may have changed? Genuinely curious. 

[stormtracker]

49 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

Late Dec and this  model is showing rain in North Dakota  to the  cold  NW side  of a  low. 1/3rd of winter  is gone  at this  point.

 

For Fuck's sake.