December Mid/Long Range Discussion

[Blizzard of 93]

The latest Euro Weeklies for December 27th looks to be Highly serviceable as well.

[frd]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

So do we want a ridge there or a trough.  We’ve failed both ways lately. If we fail again the problem is way bigger than any one specific artifact of the long wave pattern. 

Whatever gets us snow . But seriously, maybe the transition starts in early to mid January and then improves from there similar to 1965-66. 

Looking for improvements in the Pac, but also the HL and the NAO region by mid Jan. As you said,  if we do not start to see things improve in the long range guideance by the first of the year then we can really start to worry, however currently I remain hopeful.      

 

[Weather Will]

Latest WB EURO weeklies should see the GOA trough retrograding before the end the month and a nice trough in the east by the first week in January.  Hope that it verifies....normal temps by around the first and below normal a month away.  

[Ralph Wiggum]

26 minutes ago, nj2va said:

It looks like it’s smiling at us.  

Probably laughing at the mood swings around here.  

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

We had smiley face H5 anom maps last year and we see how that worked. Just sayin.

[psuhoffman]

53 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

 

First, let me state that I totally agree with what you're saying here with all your overall ideas.  And I truly believe that the Elephant In The Room Which Shall Not Be Named! is a good part of why we see these changes over the last couple or so decades.  But I honestly don't think anyone is or should be looking for a "wall to wall snowy winter" around here.  Even in the best years.  The only truly "wall to wall" winter that I recall in my time here was 2013-14, and perhaps you could also argue 2002-03.  2009-10, for all it's record-breaking storms, was compressed into a week of December and a couple of weeks in late January into the first half of February.  I know you're personally not expecting that, but I think there are those who do.  I get it.  The last several winters sucked, especially last year.  Maybe it's truly all one's expectations.  I like looking ahead to see what the pattern may look like, etc., but at times it honestly gets tiresome listening to so much gloom and doom ("OMG!  December now sucks, can kicked to sometime in January, aaaaahhhhh!").  Again, I get that to an extent and I get frustrated as well...and I'm CERTAINLY NOT saying that you are doing this.  I'm just using your comments as a springboard for mine, if I may.

Will this winter just end up being crap despite what should have been a "background state" that normally would deliver consistently?  Maybe.  But as you say, that's a LARGER issue that deserves more discussion even if there are those who don't want to hear it.  But just from a snow lover standpoint, if we get a "one and done" kind of thing like 2015-16, I wouldn't complain too much.  Or if we're back-loaded like 2014-15 and other winters, where we get much of our winter in late Jan through Mar.

Honestly, after last winter I almost don't much care at this point if we get the perfect pattern that delivers weeks and weeks of tracking (which would be difficult anyhow even in the best situation!).  If something shows up, great.  Give me some decent events and perhaps even a HECS tossed in there and I'm fine.  Sorry, but after last winter's 0.5" snow for the season (that was gone before noon!) and consistently warm temperatures, I just figure you can't get much worse.  There was literally NOTHING of interest that ever really appeared on the horizon last year.  The most exciting thing was the brief Arctic blast around Christmas, and I got 15 minutes of flurries out of it that didn't even measure.

As for your rather bullish forecast this season, I totally understand why you went that way.  And in all honesty, as you well know especially here in the metro areas, we can get that level of snowfall in 2-3 events with nothing else.  Just how it is around here.

I think our definition of wall to wall winter is different. I don’t mean it snows the whole winter. But to me I was thinking a majority (not all) of the winter is spent in a pattern where it can snow and there are multiple events spread out. Not just one or two flukes.  
 

2008-10 was definitely a wall to wall winter for me. Snow events in our area (not everyone’s yard gets it every time!)  Dec 5, Dec 10, Dec 19!  A clipper early Jan. Another storm late Jan. 3 snows Feb 2-10th. A light snow for MD in late Feb and a near miss in early March. That’s as wall to wall as it’s gets to be. No 3 week shut the blinds periods…we were tracking legit threats from Dec 1 on!   And is even throw in years where it started warm and flipped but then had a sustained 8 weeks or so of cold/snow. 
 

For reference years I would categorize as wall to wall winters in my adult life  

1994, 1996, 2003, 2010, 2014

 Years that just missed but were close, had long stretches that felt like winter and I’d even include in this argument 

2005, 2015

But let’s be serious…a lot of us are hunting for the big year that historically this area gets with decadal regularity. 1958, 1961, 1964, 1966, 1978, 1979, 1982, 1987, 1996, 2003, 2010, 2014. Those years features a combo of long stretches of wintry weather and snows. We all know they won’t happen most years, but my point was if this enso can’t being about a snowy (doesn’t even have to be to the level of one of those years) winter then I don’t know if getting a year like that is even possible in the current pacific background base state. 
 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

12z Euro has <480dm near the Baffin island Day 7.. ++NAO. No one has said it but the NAO has trended much more positive in the last few days. Watch out, because +epo and +nao if they happen together can be a very warm pattern. 

[psuhoffman]

Just to clarify

1) all the week3+ extended guidance still looks great.  

2) I still expect it to eventually be correct. I think it was just too fast getting there initially and felt that might be true even a week ago. 

3)but I am acknowledging that for about 7 days now the better looks are stuck at day 16-20 just outside the actual ensemble range mostly. At times it’s snuck into day 15 for a run then retreated. And that’s frustrating. Just noting that observation. 

[WxUSAF]

The thing is, this allegedly awful pattern is one with a lot of things going for it that we want! Undercutting  STJ, Aleutian low, ridging in Canada. Yes, the continent is going to be lacking really arctic air, but some pretty minor tweaks makes the pattern still pretty workable. And only some modest tweaks turn it very good. My wag is that’s why we’re still getting the occasional fantasy range snow event or tease. It still isn’t December 2015. So maybe we wait until around new years, but it still doesn’t look like shit the blinds for the next 3 weeks.

[Itryatgolf70]

23 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

The thing is, this allegedly awful pattern is one with a lot of things going for it that we want! Undercutting  STJ, Aleutian low, ridging in Canada. Yes, the continent is going to be lacking really arctic air, but some pretty minor tweaks makes the pattern still pretty workable. And only some modest tweaks turn it very good. My wag is that’s why we’re still getting the occasional fantasy range snow event or tease. It still isn’t December 2015. So maybe we wait until around new years, but it still doesn’t look like shit the blinds for the next 3 weeks.

Dec 2015 was incredibly warm. Then in beg to mid January 2016 it flipped to alot more sustainable cold. I'm hoping it changes earlier than that, but it may not. We definitely need some big shifts and tweaks in the pattern moving forward 

[frd]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Just to clarify

1) all the week3+ extended guidance still looks great.  

2) I still expect it to eventually be correct. I think it was just too fast getting there initially and felt that might be true even a week ago. 

3)but I am acknowledging that for about 7 days now the better looks are stuck at day 16-20 just outside the actual ensemble range mostly. At times it’s snuck into day 15 for a run then retreated. And that’s frustrating. Just noting that observation. 

Some are mentioning the Jet Extension will cause the - PDO to become more positive during the next three weeks. Are you considering this possible outcome? 

[87storms]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Just to clarify

1) all the week3+ extended guidance still looks great.  

2) I still expect it to eventually be correct. I think it was just too fast getting there initially and felt that might be true even a week ago. 

3)but I am acknowledging that for about 7 days now the better looks are stuck at day 16-20 just outside the actual ensemble range mostly. At times it’s snuck into day 15 for a run then retreated. And that’s frustrating. Just noting that observation. 

I'm starting to wonder if this ends up like 2018/19 where we snagged a few snowstorms simply by playing the numbers game in an active pattern.

[Ji]

This is promising

[Terpeast]

46 minutes ago, Ji said:

This is promising

Yep, this is better. 

[cbmclean]

A link to Dr. Simon Lee's page documenting his weather "regimes".

https://simonleewx.com/north-american-weather-regimes/

Obviously we are about to embark on a very robust "Pacific Trough" regime.  There is some hint of a potential transition to a "Greenland High" regime starting between Christmas and New Years, but it is by no means a certainty.

[yoda]

Unfortunate EPS look on 00z, but we knew it would be probably until end of the month at the earliest for a pattern change

[TSSN+]

Just now, yoda said:

Unfortunate EPS look on 00z, but we knew it would be probably until end of the month at the earliest for a pattern change

Things can change but ya looks like we are SOL till January 

[Ralph Wiggum]

20 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Things can change but ya looks like we are SOL till January 

I wouldn't write Dec off completely. I'm not seeing any wall to wall torch. The 'sustained' look isn't the greatest but there appear to be some windows of opportunity peppered into this month. This might be one of those seasons we generally have a not so great pattern then when the transient good patterns move thru we score. Really have little doubt as we enter prime climo that we cash in several times. Hang in.

[Ralph Wiggum]

24 minutes ago, yoda said:

Unfortunate EPS look on 00z, but we knew it would be probably until end of the month at the earliest for a pattern change

If we are hunting good patterns on the super LR ens then the GEPS is your model for the day. The CFS weeklies are really nice late Dec into prime climo as well. Dec isn't a snow month right? But it just stopped snowing today for many and I've seen my 5th flakes of the season up here already so these are all good signs moving ahead. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^That's not a good look. We would be flooded with surface warmth. 

[ldub23]

JB says it will be warm and stormy now but it can still snow

 

Pattern change still coming

 

 

 

[jayyy]

Pattern change looking unlikely till after the first of the year.  
Doesn't mean we can't luck into something but it's going to be uphill sledding.

But wasn’t the pattern supposed to flip around Christmas week anyway? We knew we’d have a situation where we could *possibly* luck out with something minor in early December if timing was near perfect before we warmed up for a few weeks (typical niño climo) It looks like won’t see a torch either.

PSU said a few times that he thought models were rushing the timetable a bit. Don’t really see a huge issue here. Perhaps models just becoming a bit more realistic on how quickly things shuffle. If it’s somewhat warm from now until Christmas and we see a solid January - February, that’s a W in my book. And textbook niño.

[jayyy]

I feel like it’s hard to trust long range MJO forecasts on models outside of like 2 weeks. Models have a tendency to kill off waves early. Models had the MJO dying off in phase 4 some weeks back, then phase 8-1, now phase 7 before going null. That ish flips faster than Ji’s optimism. Wouldn’t be surprised if they show something entirely different next week.

Same thing with the AO. It initially looked to be positive most of the month, then we see a couple weeks where it looked like it would be negative most of the month, and now it’s flipping around AGAIN.

Clearly lots of uncertainty on models as to what the upper air pattern will look like at Christmas and beyond. Wouldn’t get too excited or debbed this far out. It’s fairly clear that things are going to continue to flip flop around on models until we get closer.

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

^That's not a good look. We would be flooded with surface warmth. 

I think my point was that's where we r at 2 weeks out and that's our best look....but we can still sneak something in during small windows and to hang in as just after this things look to improve markedly.

[BlizzardNole]

15 hours ago, 87storms said:

I'm starting to wonder if this ends up like 2018/19 where we snagged a few snowstorms simply by playing the numbers game in an active pattern.

2018/19 was a nice winter with close to 30" total for me.  Sign me up!

[stormy]

12z GFS dumps another 2.0 inches of rain on us a week from today..

Snow?  The 540 line is up in Maine.

[Chris78]

1 hour ago, jayyy said:

But wasn’t the pattern supposed to flip around Christmas week anyway? We knew we’d have a situation where we could *possibly* luck out with something minor in early December if timing was near perfect before we warmed up for a few weeks (typical niño climo) It looks like won’t see a torch either.

PSU said a few times that he thought models were rushing the timetable a bit. Don’t really see a huge issue here. Perhaps models just becoming a bit more realistic on how quickly things shuffle. If it’s somewhat warm from now until Christmas and we see a solid January - February, that’s a W in my book. And textbook niño.

I'm just hoping the can kicking stops.

I think we get into a good pattern in January but it is getting can kicked a bit. 

A week ago we were looking at the week Betwen Christmas and New Years. Now it's spilling into the first of the year 

And it will take a week or 2 to get temps right once we get a better pattern.

We can certainly luck into something but it makes it tougher .

 

[mattie g]

I'm irrationally annoyed by what the Canadian is showing for early next week. ~3" of precip over 48 hours from storm in which a northern stream vort drops down into the backside of a juicy southern stream vort and that stays pretty far off the coast.

Stupid Pacific air...

[cbmclean]

7 minutes ago, mattie g said:

I'm irrationally annoyed by what the Canadian is showing for early next week. ~3" of precip over 48 hours from storm in which a northern stream vort drops down into the backside of a juicy southern stream vort and that stays pretty far off the coast.

Stupid Pacific air...

Is it just me or do perfect track storms become more common lately when the CONUS is flooded with Pac Puke?  I know I know; the MA used to be able overcome less than ideal Pacifics, but not any more.  

[psuhoffman]

34 minutes ago, mattie g said:

I'm irrationally annoyed by what the Canadian is showing for early next week. ~3" of precip over 48 hours from storm in which a northern stream vort drops down into the backside of a juicy southern stream vort and that stays pretty far off the coast.

Stupid Pacific air...

We had a perfect track rainstorm in Jan 2016 a couple weeks before…ya know. We also had a perfect track rainstorm in early March 2018 then a couple weeks later…so it’s not the worst thing. It’s more indicative of the storm track with the stj we just need a period that’s cold enough. 

25 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Is it just me or do perfect track storms become more common lately when the CONUS is flooded with Pac Puke?  I know I know; the MA used to be able overcome less than ideal Pacifics, but not any more.  

Are you ready for my detailed deeply analytical thorough answer….

YES