December Mid/Long Range Discussion

[Jebman]

9 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Yup. This is a loaded STJ trained on us with plenty of ammo

Train one of those on south central Texas, please.

[Weather Will]

One of the reasons the colder look has disappeared as we head into  January is the MJO is now forecast to go into the null phase rather than do the loop through 7.  Hopefully that will be wrong.

[Ji]

One of the reasons the colder look has disappeared as we head into  January is the MJO is now forecast to go into the null phase rather than do the loop through 7.  Hopefully that will be wrong.

You can get wintry weather in a null phase. Mjo is more impactful in Nina than Nino

[frd]

36 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

One of the reasons the colder look has disappeared as we head into  January is the MJO is now forecast to go into the null phase rather than do the loop through 7.  Hopefully that will be wrong.

 ensemble mean PT index at 1.5 sigma at a 2 week lead is wild according to Dr Simmon Lee.  Last December we were in a robust Greenland High regime from December 2  to December 19th then we flipped to a Pacific trough regime for the last week of December.

The PT regime is associated with atmospheric rivers into the West Coast and very warm temperatures across the continent. 

Going to take time to recover from this. Nino Decembers are warm and in general recent Decembers have trended warmer. But the current PT regime is rather remarkable.  

 

[osfan24]

So much for the negative NAO/AO for much of December leading to a great winter. Looks to be positive for most of the month. That plus the can-kicking is bringing back vibes of past awful snow years.

[BristowWx]

28 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

So much for the negative NAO/AO for much of December leading to a great winter. Looks to be positive for most of the month. That plus the can-kicking is bringing back vibes of past awful snow years.

I mean we don’t know that’s right just yet.  No reason to shit the blinds this early.  

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z GEFS, another drought denting storm next weekend/ Monday as well.  No cold enough air to support snow except maybe in the highest elevations at this time.

[ldub23]

Santa wants to know when the  pattern is  changing

 

[Ji]

the long range is a disaster at least on the EPS. We might not see a pattern chance until early Jan and if that delays....

 

the GEFS looks better

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Ji said:

the long range is a disaster. We might not see a pattern chance until early Jan and if that delays....

Nino-like!

[cbmclean]

The mood has turned ugly today.

[cbmclean]

@CAPE

@WxUSAF

@psuhoffman

Do you guys share in today's general despair?  Looking at the big three ensembles, not sure that I see anything worse so much as just a failure to see anything better.  Perhaps I am just impatient.

[Chris78]

1 minute ago, cbmclean said:

The mood has turned ugly today.

Pattern change looking unlikely till after the first of the year.  

Doesn't mean we can't luck into something but it's going to be uphill sledding.

[Ji]

The mood has turned ugly today.

The weeklies had been rock solid for months till it came time to turn cold and snowy

[psuhoffman]

If a nino isn’t able to change the equation then at least we know!  
 

I mean eventually the PDO will flip again but I don’t expect that anytime soon. And we can still get a fluke snow like the lucky one off boundary waves we’ve randomly lucked into from time to time in recent years. But if this current enso can’t alter the equation I find it hard to imagine how we get a true wall to wall snowy winter in this pacific background state. 
 

please note I said IF…I’m sticking to my forecast for now. 

[frd]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

The weeklies had been rock solid for months till it came time to turn cold and snowy

Another modeling failure. Persistence greater than modeling.

Looks like well into Jan. regarding any chance at all for meaningful snowfall.   Extreme Pacific Trough regime well in Jan. 

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

@CAPE

@WxUSAF

@psuhoffman

Do you guys share in today's general despair?  Looking at the big three ensembles, not sure that I see anything worse so much as just a failure to see anything better.  Perhaps I am just impatient.

I’m not jumping yet but I get the frustration. A week ago this is what Xmas to New years was supposed to look like and it was consistent on long range guidance. 

But it’s been stick at day 20 since.   Now guidance says we get to that look around Jan 5-10. Ok…but given what happened the last nino and the pacific issues which some have speculated is a bigger problem that just enso, I think it’s fair to be bothered by the failure of the pattern to progress over the past week or so. But I’m not making one of my famous “we fooked” posts yet. But…I’ll say this, if we get to new years with the long range looking like this it will be coming. Even in late flip years the changes were evident and signs the nao (which is a big key here) was tanking were evident even if the snow was still a couple weeks away. If we get to new years with no end in sight to this pacific onslaught then we’re in trouble imo. We’re ok for now…but the clock is already ticking. And before anyone complains about how early it is they said that the last couple times I called TOD on winter in December and how did that turn out?  
 

To be 100% clear I expect around Xmas we start to see the pattern progression resume. I think we’re ok. But I’d be a fool not to acknowledge the risks and be a little nervous until I see concrete signs were good. 

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, frd said:

Another modeling failure. Persistence greater than modeling.

Looks like well into Jan. regarding any chance at all for meaningful snowfall.   Extreme Pacific Trough regime well in Jan. 

So do we want a ridge there or a trough.  We’ve failed both ways lately. If we fail again the problem is way bigger than any one specific artifact of the long wave pattern. 

[Blizzard of 93]

The pattern at day 16 looks serviceable on the GEPS & GEFS.

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

 

The pattern at day 16 looks serviceable on the GEPS & GEFS.

Day 16 isn't worth looking at, imo But then again this is a long range thread...

[Blizzard of 93]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Day 16 isn't worth looking at, imo But then again this is a long range thread...

2 of the 3 major ensembles are serviceable.

If the EPS went out another day or 2, it would be serviceable as well.

The ridging is shifting into western Canada from day 11 to where it ends at day 15.

[ldub23]

JB cant be wrong again. 

[Heisy]

We had this discussion in Phillywx. Check out todays 12z euro vs December 94. 94-95 was pretty crap here in Philly outside one event in Feb where we just made on the cold side of a fast moving nor’easter.





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[Scarlet Pimpernel]

45 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If a nino isn’t able to change the equation then at least we know!  
 

I mean eventually the PDO will flip again but I don’t expect that anytime soon. And we can still get a fluke snow like the lucky one off boundary waves we’ve randomly lucked into from time to time in recent years. But if this current enso can’t alter the equation I find it hard to imagine how we get a true wall to wall snowy winter in this pacific background state. 
 

please note I said IF…I’m sticking to my forecast for now. 

 

33 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m not jumping yet but I get the frustration. A week ago this is what Xmas to New years was supposed to look like and it was consistent on long range guidance. 

But it’s been stick at day 20 since.   Now guidance says we get to that look around Jan 5-10. Ok…but given what happened the last nino and the pacific issues which some have speculated is a bigger problem that just enso, I think it’s fair to be bothered by the failure of the pattern to progress over the past week or so. But I’m not making one of my famous “we fooked” posts yet. But…I’ll say this, if we get to new years with the long range looking like this it will be coming. Even in late flip years the changes were evident and signs the nao (which is a big key here) was tanking were evident even if the snow was still a couple weeks away. If we get to new years with no end in sight to this pacific onslaught then we’re in trouble imo. We’re ok for now…but the clock is already ticking. And before anyone complains about how early it is they said that the last couple times I called TOD on winter in December and how did that turn out?  
 

To be 100% clear I expect around Xmas we start to see the pattern progression resume. I think we’re ok. But I’d be a fool not to acknowledge the risks and be a little nervous until I see concrete signs were good. 

First, let me state that I totally agree with what you're saying here with all your overall ideas.  And I truly believe that the Elephant In The Room Which Shall Not Be Named! is a good part of why we see these changes over the last couple or so decades.  But I honestly don't think anyone is or should be looking for a "wall to wall snowy winter" around here.  Even in the best years.  The only truly "wall to wall" winter that I recall in my time here was 2013-14, and perhaps you could also argue 2002-03.  2009-10, for all it's record-breaking storms, was compressed into a week of December and a couple of weeks in late January into the first half of February.  I know you're personally not expecting that, but I think there are those who do.  I get it.  The last several winters sucked, especially last year.  Maybe it's truly all one's expectations.  I like looking ahead to see what the pattern may look like, etc., but at times it honestly gets tiresome listening to so much gloom and doom ("OMG!  December now sucks, can kicked to sometime in January, aaaaahhhhh!").  Again, I get that to an extent and I get frustrated as well...and I'm CERTAINLY NOT saying that you are doing this.  I'm just using your comments as a springboard for mine, if I may.

Will this winter just end up being crap despite what should have been a "background state" that normally would deliver consistently?  Maybe.  But as you say, that's a LARGER issue that deserves more discussion even if there are those who don't want to hear it.  But just from a snow lover standpoint, if we get a "one and done" kind of thing like 2015-16, I wouldn't complain too much.  Or if we're back-loaded like 2014-15 and other winters, where we get much of our winter in late Jan through Mar.

Honestly, after last winter I almost don't much care at this point if we get the perfect pattern that delivers weeks and weeks of tracking (which would be difficult anyhow even in the best situation!).  If something shows up, great.  Give me some decent events and perhaps even a HECS tossed in there and I'm fine.  Sorry, but after last winter's 0.5" snow for the season (that was gone before noon!) and consistently warm temperatures, I just figure you can't get much worse.  There was literally NOTHING of interest that ever really appeared on the horizon last year.  The most exciting thing was the brief Arctic blast around Christmas, and I got 15 minutes of flurries out of it that didn't even measure.

As for your rather bullish forecast this season, I totally understand why you went that way.  And in all honesty, as you well know especially here in the metro areas, we can get that level of snowfall in 2-3 events with nothing else.  Just how it is around here.

[SnowGoose69]

5 minutes ago, Heisy said:

We had this discussion in Phillywx. Check out todays 12z euro vs December 94. 94-95 was pretty crap here in Philly outside one event in Feb where we just made on the cold side of a fast moving nor’easter.





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At the time the 94-95 winter NAO average I think was the most positive on record...since the I think we have beaten it 1 or 2 times.  The real killer in 1994 was the stratosphere was frigid...it was noted by some mets at the time in Oct/Nov that we might be in major trouble for the winter as it was just crazy how cold it was.

[CAPE]

The NE PAC trough is too dominant right now. That feature is a fixture in a Nino but we don't want it to be a monster vortex parked in the GoA. Right now there is TPV energy feeding into it, but all the extended products still indicate some weakening and retrograding towards the Aleutians into early Jan, with improvement in the PNA/EPO domains. Some improvement in the NA would also be really helpful. We watch and wait.

[clskinsfan]

24 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

But I honestly don't think anyone is or should be looking for a "wall to wall snowy winter" around here.

This right here. We have above average winters when we score Noreasters. Thats it. And Nino;s are where we normally get them. 

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The NE PAC trough is too dominant right now. That feature is a fixture in a Nino but we don't want it to be a monster vortex parked in the GoA. Right now there is TPV energy feeding into it, but all the extended products still indicate some weakening and retrograding towards the Aleutians into early Jan, with improvement in the PNA/EPO domains. Some improvement in the NA would also be really helpful. We watch and wait.

 

[nj2va]

6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The NE PAC trough is too dominant right now. That feature is a fixture in a Nino but we don't want it to be a monster vortex parked in the GoA. Right now there is TPV energy feeding into it, but all the extended products still indicate some weakening and retrograding towards the Aleutians into early Jan, with improvement in the PNA/EPO domains. Some improvement in the NA would also be really helpful. We watch and wait.

It looks like it’s smiling at us.  

Probably laughing at the mood swings around here.  

[Rhino16]

11 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The NE PAC trough is too dominant right now. That feature is a fixture in a Nino but we don't want it to be a monster vortex parked in the GoA. Right now there is TPV energy feeding into it, but all the extended products still indicate some weakening and retrograding towards the Aleutians into early Jan, with improvement in the PNA/EPO domains. Some improvement in the NA would also be really helpful. We watch and wait.

It’s smiling at me. It has that look that means we’re in for snow!

edit: same thoughts as above