December Mid/Long Range Discussion

[Ji]

Brace yourself

[frd]

The last three Decembers, at this time of the month, North America snowfall was robust. Then as late December arrived North America snowfall coverage declined rapidly. The pattern after that drop off was not conducive for sustained cold or snowfall. 

What is interesting now is that snowfall extent in North America is at decadal lows. Say what you want about about El Ninos,  that they tend to produce above average snowfall in our region. As for tempertures, air masses are not frigid, just cold enough to snow.  

I am interested in seeing how NA snow cover trends in the weeks ahead.  Certainly I would imagine to get seasoanl temps here, we would like to see a better cryosphere in our source regions to deliver cold air. Looks like it is going to take a while. 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

This forum has an obsession with the element water. In fact, water is very heavy and does not quickly hold or make trends. So many years it's about snow accreting or declination but it really means very little. Same with the PDO, low and high pressures care not about water temps. Air>water. 

[psuhoffman]

https://x.com/psuhoffman/status/1733297807652422089?s=46&t=JDI46BeqOMUGnLaA2k6MTw

[psuhoffman]

There is so much bad information floating around now thanks to social media. Granted there is good also but you have to be able to tell the difference. 

[WxUSAF]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

https://x.com/psuhoffman/status/1733297807652422089?s=46&t=JDI46BeqOMUGnLaA2k6MTw

There’s another pretty key difference between the bad ninos and good ninos. The bad ninos have the huge NPac low in the gulf of Alaska and not over the Aleutians. The good winters have an Aleutian low. And that’s what’s progged for this awful horrible winter ending torch coming up…

[jayyy]

I’m 60 years old and I’ve seen countless storms like this in mid December.  It’s a product of the pattern.  I don’t think you should read too much more into it than that.

Exactly. Why are some folks pretending that places like buffalo didn’t see a 6 foot snowfall last December? Or that Caribou Maine didn’t just have a winter storm warning like 3 days ago? It still snows in early December in colder / northern areas. Patterns mean everything, as you said. Every year isn’t going to be the same. As it turns out, it can rain in Canada during winter months. Crazy concept, I know.

Let’s be real honest for a moment. We have been pretty spoiled for the better part of the past 20-30 years (minus the past dreadful 7 and a few other random downer years) We got pretty damn lucky over that 20-30 year span where we saw at least 1 big storm most years. Some years (01-02, 10-11, 14-15) were epic with multiple big storms, while other years were average to just above average.

This isn’t the first time the eastern half of North America has been in a prolonged snow drought, and it certainly won’t be the last. YES, this is the least snowy 7 yr period in our history and we can debate all day as to why that’s happening, but it doesn’t mean we are fucked forever.

Folks are obsessing way too much about things that aren’t relevant. Not everything is correlated. A December 16th nor’easter dumping rain on Maine doesn’t mean we’re screwed. Yes, it’s becoming harder to snow in marginal setups, especially early on in the season, but that doesn’t mean we’ll never see another blockbuster winter again. Maybe it’s harder to snow in early December, but juicier storms with more qpf in January - February could easily make up for that.

Let’s take this winter a week at a time and not get too far ahead of ourselves. We are in a MUCH better position going into this winter than we have been in several years. Let’s save the worrying for when it’s actually warranted.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

There’s another pretty key difference between the bad ninos and good ninos. The bad ninos have the huge NPac low in the gulf of Alaska and not over the Aleutians. The good winters have an Aleutian low. And that’s what’s progged for this awful horrible winter ending torch coming up…

True. I think there is a symbiotic relationship there though. 

[Terpeast]

31 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Exactly. Why are some folks pretending that places like buffalo didn’t see a 6 foot snowfall last December? Or that Caribou Maine didn’t just have a winter storm warning like 3 days ago? It still snows in early December in colder / northern areas. Patterns mean everything, as you said. Every year isn’t going to be the same. As it turns out, it can rain in Canada during winter months. Crazy concept, I know.

Let’s be real honest for a moment. We have been pretty spoiled for the better part of the past 20-30 years (minus the past dreadful 7 and a few other random downer years) We got pretty damn lucky over that 20-30 year span where we saw at least 1 big storm most years. Some years (01-02, 10-11, 14-15) were epic with multiple big storms, while other years were average to just above average.

This isn’t the first time the eastern half of North America has been in a prolonged snow drought, and it certainly won’t be the last. YES, this is the least snowy 7 yr period in our history and we can debate all day as to why that’s happening, but it doesn’t mean we are fucked forever.

Folks are obsessing way too much about things that aren’t relevant. Not everything is correlated. A December 16th nor’easter dumping rain on Maine doesn’t mean we’re screwed. Yes, it’s becoming harder to snow in marginal setups, especially early on in the season, but that doesn’t mean we’ll never see another blockbuster winter again. Maybe it’s harder to snow in early December, but juicier storms with more qpf in January - February could easily make up for that.

Let’s take this winter a week at a time and not get too far ahead of ourselves. We are in a MUCH better position going into this winter than we have been in several years. Let’s save the worrying for when it’s actually warranted.

Well said man

[stormtracker]

2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

This forum has an obsession with the element water. In fact, water is very heavy and does not quickly hold or make trends. So many years it's about snow accreting or declination but it really means very little. Same with the PDO, low and high pressures care not about water temps. Air>water. 

What the fuck are you talking about?

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

What the fuck are you talking about?

[Jebman]

On 12/6/2023 at 7:58 PM, dailylurker said:

I like the whining coming from Lake Tahoe. We're definitely in a different pattern then last year. 

Naso fast. They are gonna get hit. Those pac storms are revving up..

They got 15 inches upper mountain 2 nights ago....

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mid Atlantic will still be obliterated by torrential snow and vodka cold this winter.

[Jebman]

5 hours ago, Ji said:

Brace yourself

Alta is getting snow now. Their webcams are straight from 1980 though. Just still life's lmao! Must not be doing too well even with all that fresh pow.

[yoda]

So the 00z EURO tonight decides not to follow the 00z GFS and 00z CMC Day 8-9 storm idea... but come up with a Day 9 into Day 10 big storm where h5 and the SLP join up in E NC

[CAPE]

Update on the mid month potential- pretty strong signal for a coastal storm at this range, but as previously discussed, cold air availability appears limited. Look at the surface pressure to our north- it is the inverse of what we want for a northerly flow of continental air into a developing storm, and there is a lack of antecedent cold to begin with. The way the setup looks now, this could be a significant snow event for the highlands of NC northward, depending on the exact evolution/storm track.

[Ji]

Update on the mid month potential- pretty strong signal for a coastal storm at this range, but as previously discussed, cold air availability appears limited. Look at the surface pressure to our north- it is the inverse of what we want for a northerly flow of continental air into a developing storm, and there is a lack of antecedent cold to begin with. The way the setup looks now, this could be a significant snow event for the highlands of NC northward, depending on the exact evolution/storm track.

97-98

[CAPE]

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

97-98

 We are going to need some help in the NA. All signs still point in that direction in the coming weeks.

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

 We are going to need some help in the NA. All signs still point in that direction in the coming weeks.

Track is an app runner. No cold high to hold it off the coast

[CAPE]

14 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Track is an app runner. No cold high to hold it off the coast

I was referring to his 97-98 reference, implying the entire winter will be a disaster.

[Terpeast]

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I was referring to his 97-98 reference, implying the entire winter will be a disaster.

Yeah, I don’t think this is another 97-98 because the pac forcing is way different. It’s just the NA is too warm now, need to give it time to cool down

[Chris78]

56 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah, I don’t think this is another 97-98 because the pac forcing is way different. It’s just the NA is too warm now, need to give it time to cool down

It's just JI being JI lol

[paulythegun]

This forum has an obsession with the element water. In fact, water is very heavy and does not quickly hold or make trends. So many years it's about snow accreting or declination but it really means very little. Same with the PDO, low and high pressures care not about water temps. Air>water. 

Water...like from the toilet?

[Ji]

I was referring to his 97-98 reference, implying the entire winter will be a disaster.

I was referring to this storm only. I believe in this winter

[cbmclean]

I'm honestly scared to even look at the ensembles today.  Someone braver than me: has the can-kicking started, or has it held steady?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

5 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I'm honestly scared to even look at the ensembles today.  Someone braver than me: has the can-kicking started, or has it held steady?

Keeping a ridge over the NE, but if we see the same Pacific in January we are likely to see a trough lol

[Terpeast]

8 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I'm honestly scared to even look at the ensembles today.  Someone braver than me: has the can-kicking started, or has it held steady?

They look the same to me. No real can kick. But they don't look all that great either. 

[CAPE]

8 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I'm honestly scared to even look at the ensembles today.  Someone braver than me: has the can-kicking started, or has it held steady?

The dominant feature is the NE Pac low as expected, but it has indeed retrograded as predicted.

[CAPE]

Just now, CAPE said:

The dominant feature is the NE Pac low as expected, but it has indeed retrograded as predicted.

Also the EPS is suggestive of h5 heights increasing into the NAO domain. This is really what I am keeping an eye on. We pretty much know what the Pacific is going to be based on location of Nino forcing, but we really could benefit from a more favorable NA.

[cbmclean]

11 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Also the EPS is suggestive of h5 heights increasing into the NAO domain. This is really what I am keeping an eye on. We pretty much know what the Pacific is going to be based on location of Nino forcing, but we really could benefit from a more favorable NA.

@psuhoffman mentioned that as "Phase 2" of the master plan. 

Meanwhile GEPS has some hints of ridging in the EPO PNA domain but very subtle.  I hate waiting on pattern changes.

ETA: Correction, I should have said PNA domain, not EPO.  Alaska still troughy.

[psuhoffman]

18 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

They look the same to me. No real can kick. But they don't look all that great either. 

 

13 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Also the EPS is suggestive of h5 heights increasing into the NAO domain. This is really what I am keeping an eye on. We pretty much know what the Pacific is going to be based on location of Nino forcing, but we really could benefit from a more favorable NA.

Day 15 the eps is showing signs of the first wave break in the Atlantic that we need. It’s a step process. But once the pacific low retrogrades given the weak tpv imo it’s just a matter of time and wave breaks to get the Atlantic where we need.