December Mid/Long Range Discussion

[ldub23]

1 hour ago, Prestige Worldwide said:

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1733192840472379769?s=61&t=jtYSAZghIHxEA6K1a8OFsw
 

someone seems happy 

Twas the  night  before Christmas and all thru the  house, no arctic air was stirring, not even a wisp. (best  i could do) Im still looking at when fairbanks warms  up. Hopefully  it wont  be  in march. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

And  yes, when Fairbanks starts talking about well above  normal temps then the  cold will be  coming

 

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
The extended is looking interesting. Starting with the general
pattern, troughing over the state will leave an arctic front
draped over the Interior, the exact placement is still being
determined but this will play an important role. The storm track
will be from the Pacific, south of the Aleutians to near Prince
William sound. This will allow for several snow chances in the
Interior. The placement of the arctic front will be determined by
a couple of factors, a low over the Arctic providing northerly
flow and the remnant low over the YK Delta providing persistent
lows into the Northern Gulf of Alaska. Also, with these storms
coming up, they will run into a high sitting over Eastern Russia,
resulting in a tightening gradient and prolonging the northerly
winds in the Bering Strait and St. Lawrence Island next week with
heavy snow still remaining possible. Winds may pick up
significantly over the Bering Sea with this set up and we are
monitoring closely for the potential for impactful weather.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

[cbmclean]

And then there is ldub23...

[WxUSAF]

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea I wasn't going to bother to respond but that is no torch... with an active STJ tracking under the high pressure dome in Canada...it's more like a Seattle winter type temp profile, not cold enough for snow but definitely not something we would remember as a torch.  Once the vortex gets to the Aleutians the temp profile over the CONUS will start to cool.  Still wont have arctic air...but once the pac puke firehose is directed well west of us it will allow some continental air to get mixed into the equation and we should be able to get a cold enough profile domestically to work with.  At least that's my plan and I'm sticking too it.  

With the strat vortex being stretched toward us later in the month, I think there’s more cold-side risk than you’d think otherwise. But I agree we’ll cool steadily in the means as we approach and then pass Xmas. It’s rare that we’ve had 4-6 week outlooks stick in time and now we’re seeing it inside D15. Things look totally in track to me. 

[psuhoffman]

11 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

And then there is ldub23...

there is an ignore feature 

[cbmclean]

I am hesitant to use ignore in general.  For one thing I am always concerned about setting myself up in an echo chamber, only hearing things I want to hear (like a conservative who only watched Fox News or a liberal who only watches MSNBC).  Maybe I should make an exception for those who post 384 hour ops with the intent of causing distress.

[ldub23]

3 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I am hesitant to use ignore in general.  For one thing I am always concerned about setting myself up in an echo chamber, only hearing things I want to hear (like a conservative who only watched Fox News or a liberal who only watches MSNBC).  Maybe I should make an exception for those who post 384 hour ops with the intent of causing distress.

I  post  plenty  of  maps that show snow and  cold as well and when fairbanks starts a sustained warm  up i will be the first to post  it.

[Ji]

without any snow in Dec....we are simply not going to get an epic winter. Lets say we get 10 in Jan, 15 in Feb and 5 in march.....thats 30.....thats not epic...its decent. We really need one or two double digit storms including  hecs to put us in 2002-2003 land. 

looks like we are headed for a 65-66 winter--if we are lucky  

[brooklynwx99]

lol people were probably saying the same thing after Dec 2015 as well. wonder how that played out

[Heisy]

without any snow in Dec....we are simply not going to get an epic winter. Lets say we get 10 in Jan, 15 in Feb and 5 in march.....thats 30.....thats not epic...its decent. We really need one or two double digit storms including  hecs to put us in 2002-2003 land. 
looks like we are headed for a 65-66 winter--if we are lucky  

Epic winter is a high bar these days. I’d honestly be happy with just one event with 12”+. I’m in this hobby for the woof big dog events.


.

[snownut]

17 minutes ago, Ji said:

without any snow in Dec....we are simply not going to get an epic winter. Lets say we get 10 in Jan, 15 in Feb and 5 in march.....thats 30.....thats not epic...its decent. We really need one or two double digit storms including  hecs to put us in 2002-2003 land. 

looks like we are headed for a 65-66 winter--if we are lucky  

Do you remember that season? 

[psuhoffman]

16 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

lol people were probably saying the same thing after Dec 2015 as well. wonder how that played out

I see both sides. Yes it’s a high bar. But…our climo here is to have 5-6 bad low snow winters then hit a couple decent and a couple huge years every decade.  It’s now been 13 years since the last truly epic season and now 7 years of total utter dreg. Literally our least snowy long period on record!  We are way way way past due for a HUGE winter. Frankly we could get a 40” winter this season and Baltimore would still be way below avg on snowfall over the last 8 years.   
 

And this is a nino!  With all long range guidance indicating we go Nina again next year with a continuing -pdo when is that epic winter coming if not this year?  During -pdo Nina’s are typically multi year. Are we waiting 3 more years?  So while I’m not going to jump off a bridge if this winter ends up just ok or above avg but not great…the truth is we are due for an epic huge snow year and anything other than that will be catastrophic to our snow climo! 
 

[psuhoffman]

@brooklynwx99 frankly one of the reasons I tilted towards a huge snow season was simply how due we are…and that I’m not ready to concede our snow climo is THAT much worse. The fact is if Baltimore were to only get like 20-25” this year facing another -pdo Nina cycle after where more single digit dud seasons are likely…we could come out the other side looking at a reality where our long term avg could drop some ridiculous amount (on top of the recent drops at the end of the last two decades) that I can’t and don’t want to imagine we’re there yet.  

[Ji]

lol people were probably saying the same thing after Dec 2015 as well. wonder how that played out

That was an epic storm….one event winter for dc lol

[Stormchaserchuck1]

It's pretty cool out today. I was driving around thinking that this is a chilly airmass for it being the start of the warmer period (indexes). It does feel like cooler Dec's before cooler Winter's imo.. Models do trend based on current conditions. 

[Ji]

[mention=9996]brooklynwx99[/mention] frankly one of the reasons I tilted towards a huge snow season was simply how due we are…and that I’m not ready to concede our snow climo is THAT much worse. The fact is if Baltimore were to only get like 20-25” this year facing another -pdo Nina cycle after where more single digit dud seasons are likely…we could come out the other side looking at a reality where our long term avg could drop some ridiculous amount (on top of the recent drops at the end of the last two decades) that I can’t and don’t want to imagine we’re there yet.  

We are going to need a hecs if we lose a full winter month like December but hecs are common for thjs type of Nino but we will need a Jan 2016 type storm

[mattie g]

43 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Epic winter is a high bar these days. I’d honestly be happy with just one event with 12”+. I’m in this hobby for the woof big dog events.

And epic winter is a high bar, whether now or 100 years ago.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 minute ago, mattie g said:

And epic winter is a high bar, whether now or 100 years ago.

We had like 80 snow days in 02-03

[Heisy]

18z gfs for the mid month event. Might start saving up for a trip to the mountains if these runs continue


.

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[CAPE]

8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

Why do you post this stuff when you clearly don't even know how to interpret it? Stay in the damn Panic thread FFS.

[Daniel Boone]

58 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It's pretty cool out today. I was driving around thinking that this is a chilly airmass for it being the start of the warmer period (indexes). It does feel like cooler Dec's before cooler Winter's imo.. Models do trend based on current conditions. 

Yep. Agree on that. Good sign. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

16 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Why do you post this stuff when you clearly don't even know how to interpret it? Stay in the damn Panic thread FFS.

Exactly. I'm pretty certain the PAC jet extension has some positive net results for us here. Even in that graphic you can see the epo ridge building and a split flow off the W Coast.

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Exactly. I'm pretty certain the PAC jet extension has some positive net results for us here. Even in that graphic you can see the epo ridge building and a split flow off the W Coast.

I was going to say that. 

So yep, bring it on!

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

I was going to say that. 

So yep, bring it on!

I made a reply post to him yesterday- the last time he misinterpreted a twitter post on the subject, illustrating how jet extensions lead to a +PNA. @brooklynwx99 also made a similar post. To no avail. Perpetual deb.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Nice epo ridge building after day 10 on the gefs as that pac jet extension works its magic:

 

[North Balti Zen]

51 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Why do you post this stuff when you clearly don't even know how to interpret it? Stay in the damn Panic thread FFS.

He’s gonna have to go on ignore. This has become truly bad from him.

[Steve25]

2 hours ago, Ji said:

without any snow in Dec....we are simply not going to get an epic winter. Lets say we get 10 in Jan, 15 in Feb and 5 in march.....thats 30.....thats not epic...its decent. We really need one or two double digit storms including  hecs to put us in 2002-2003 land. 

looks like we are headed for a 65-66 winter--if we are lucky  

It's wild to me how some of you are of the "Epic winter or bust" mentality. I understand with the Nino and the years of futility we are desperate, but I'm going on 8 full years since I've witnessed even a 6 inch snowfall. You better believe, if I get ONE double digit storm this winter, I'm going to treasure it! 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

That's one heck of a +PNA/Aleutian trough on the 18z GFS ensembles.. but believe it or not, PNA is only correlated to Mid Atlantic weather at 0.1-0.2 in December. In January it goes up to 0.5-0.6

https://ibb.co/PWB2bSx

https://ibb.co/160H289

https://ibb.co/2WBZ6tx

https://ibb.co/KKP2ZHQ

Still a <-240dm ensemble mean average this far out (days 12-15) is very strong. 

[Ji]

That's one heck of a +PNA/Aleutian trough on the 18z GFS ensembles.. but believe it or not, PNA is only correlated to Mid Atlantic weather at 0.1-0.2 in December. In January it goes up to 0.5-0.6
https://ibb.co/PWB2bSx
https://ibb.co/160H289
https://ibb.co/2WBZ6tx
https://ibb.co/KKP2ZHQ
Still a

Do you think the model cares about late Dec vs early January. Like isn’t Dec 29 pretty much January?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Opposite of last year 

https://ibb.co/dL5941t